5 our expert's favorite picks

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, an integrated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which starts Thursday in McKinney, Texas. Along with Kannon's recommended games, you'll see data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform featuring a series of games with attractive rewards, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking money.

For the fourth year in a row, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be contested at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, about half an hour north of Dallas. If history holds true, we're in for a birdie this week as the average score in the previous three editions of this tournament has been better than 24-under par.

It looks like the weather will have an effect as well. Rain and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for each day of the event. From Thursday and Sunday it will be windy. While moisture and potential in the air can cause delays, any significant amount of rain could dampen this golf course and make scoring even easier.

Weather delays are almost impossible to predict which makes it more difficult to see potential biases this week – that is, if late or early start times will be beneficial. So, I played it straight, handicapping the golf course and the fairway all things being equal.

TPC Craig Ranch is a par-71 Tom Weiskopf design that stretches to over 7,400 yards. It features very wide fairways with sparse bentgrass vegetation. Driving distance isn't really needed this week but it's more important than driving accuracy, in my opinion. Long play will be very important, as it will allow the golf course to make the most of par 4, and take advantage of par 5. With another birdie-fest expected, I also looked at the top birdies and top putters.

The golf courses that make the list this week that have very similar layouts and thus require similar skills to succeed are Port Royal Golf Club (where the Bermuda Championship is played), Memorial Park in Houston, TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, and Detroit Golf Club, where they hosted the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Note that wind is also common in Bermuda, Las Vegas, and Houston.

In returning to the regular stroke-play format this week, we'll also return to playing our picks for both outright wins and top-20 finishes.

Alex Noren (25-1)

Noren hasn't missed the cut in 2024 and, as it stands, has racked up six top-25 finishes. He is No. 1 this week in the corresponding events, having collected top-five finishes at each location, including a runner-up finish in Port Royal. In the last 36 rounds, he is ranked 17th in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting (bentgrass). He is also ranked sixth in Par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards and eighth in SG: Par 5s. In addition to all this, Noren is a very good airman.

Byeong Hun An (30-1)

It's the only thing I've picked this week that isn't traditionally good. But offsetting that is the fact that he's bombing it and is No. 1 in the field in Birdies or Better in the last 36 rounds. He's also very good at long shots, ranking in the top 14 for Hole Proximity from 175 to over 200 yards. And I like the form this season with finishes of 20 or better at the Sentry, the Sony Open, the Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Masters.

Adam Schenk (40-1)

Looking at the stats, one has to like the combination of Schenk's areas of success: being top on SG: Off the Tee, on long Par 4s, and being a very good putter. Keep that up for a week and you might have an outright winner. In 2023, Schenk had the best season of his career, and played a major role in 2024 finishing 17th in Phoenix, 19th in the Players Championship, coming out of fifth place in the Valero Texas Open, followed. at 12 at the Masters.

Mackenzie Hughes (45-1)

In the last 36 rounds, Hughes is ranked 26th in the field in 450-500 yard Par 4s and fourth in SG: Par 5s. Like Schenk and Noren, he is also one of the best players in the field, ranked 14th out of 156 players. Form this season has been very strong, missing one top-10 cut and finishing inside the top 40 times, including a third-place finish at the Valspar Championship and a 14th at Houston, both as recently as last month. Already a two-time winner on Tour, last year Hughes finished 14th at TPC Craig Ranch.

Maverick McNealy (55-1)

Like Hughes, McNealy also missed just one cut this season in 10 stroke play starts, with top-10 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and The Players Championship. Similar to Schenk's numbers, McNealy ranks high this week in the SG rankings: Off the Tee, on long Par 4s, and no. 2 in this field in SG: Putting (bentgrass) in the last 36 rounds. At associated courses, McNealy has top-10 finishes at TPC Summerlin and Detroit Golf Club, and has two top-20 finishes at Memorial Park in Houston.

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