Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, I'll be kicking off your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Things could not have been worse for the Angels. The Halos stumbled to an 11-19 record in Ron Washington's first year at the helm, and will now try to tread water without their best player. Future Hall of Famer Mike Trout will undergo knee surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee, and while it is not expected to end his season, it will keep him out for a while.
Trout started the year in great form, with a wRC+ of 142 and 10 home runs that tied him for the league lead. His production was top-notch despite having a surprisingly low BABIP of .194, foreshadowing things that could have been even better for him as the sample size shenanigans worked themselves out. In addition, he was more aggressive on the bases, with his six steals matching his total from the previous four years combined. That put him on pace for his first 30/30 season since his 2012 rookie campaign. Indeed, this was shaping up to be another MVP-caliber campaign for Trout.
Of course, all our hope comes with a cautionary caveat: as long as he stays healthy. Which, as we know all too well, has not been the case in recent years. Trout hasn't played more than 120 games in a season since 2019, the year he won his third MVP award.
Beyond the silver lining that we might see Trout play baseball again in 2024, it's too soon to know when he'll be back in the lineup. However, we have some data that can help us speculate. A 2023 study by the Mayo Clinic Department of Orthopedic Surgery compiled data from 314 meniscus injuries from MLB and MiLB players over a seven-year period, with an average return to play time of 70 days. But that includes all meniscus injuries, including those that did not require surgery. Knowing that Trout needs surgery paints a bleak picture, with the average return to play for those players jumping up to 104 days. Put another way: A normal return from surgery wouldn't have Trout returning to the Angels until mid-August.
As difficult as it may be, the Angels still have to play baseball without Trout. Taylor Ward (127 wRC+) and Jo Adell (174 wRC+) have done their part and will need to anchor the system and out-Trout. Mickey Moniak is expected to replace Trout in center field, at least against righties, and will likely team up with Kevin Pillar, who the Angels signed to a major league deal shortly after Trout went down. Cole Tucker and Luis Rengifo can also play outside.
The Evolution of Bryce Miller
By now you've probably heard of Mariners righty Bryce Miller, although you probably hadn't until he shined against the Braves on Monday. He took a complete game into the sixth and a no-hitter into the seventh, striking out 10 and allowing one run. The good showing lowered his ERA to 2.04 in his six starts, with 19 hits allowed in 35.1 innings. His strikeout rate has increased from 22% last year to 29% so far this season, although he is walking at a higher percentage (9%, up from 5%). Of course, his .179 allowed BABIP is uncontrollably low; also, his 3.81 FIP is still respectable. Even if it's due to a negative setback, it's still worth discussing what has made him so successful so far this year.
Miller relied heavily on his fastball as a rookie, and you would too if yours had a 99th-percentile spin rate and nearly 10 inches of vertical ride — that's more than all but seven pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in -2023. But if you throw your fastball about 60% of the time, big league hitters will know it's coming and make the necessary adjustments to eliminate it. And boy, oh boy, did they, enjoying a .450 slugging percentage on Miller's heater last year.
And so Miller's response has been, unsurprisingly, to bowl a few four-seamers. He still relies heavily on the pitch, but it now represents 45% of his offerings, making him less predictable. He increased his sink usage from 8% to 18%, and abandoned his curveball and changeup for a splitter, which became his second most used pitch (19%). With that splitter, now running a reverse split at first, lefties are hitting just .121/.205/.288 against it, and righties at .196/.262/.339. That said, he does hit harder and takes fewer right steps than he does left, so I would expect that trend to change at least a little. He's been underwhelming with his fastball this season, as his xwOBA against that pitch has dropped from .406 to .333, but the splitter appears to be a very effective tool in reducing the team's turnovers. The lefty is 3 for 21 against that pitch with eight strikeouts and a 31.3% whiff rate. His continued development could give the Mariners a good fourth starter to go with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert.
Jack Flaherty Attacks His Former Team
It wasn't hard to imagine that Jack Flaherty would have a strong season. He's only 28 years old, his speed is still intact, and he has the pedigree to finish fourth in the Cy Young in 2019. But back in December, when he signed a one-year, $14 million cushion contract with the Tigers, I certainly didn't expect him to look as good as he did Tuesday afternoon.
Facing the Cardinals — the team that drafted and developed him — for the first time since trading him to the Orioles last summer, Flaherty allowed just two hits and one walk with a career-high 14 strikeouts on 93 pitches over 6.2 scoreless innings. All five of his pitches, even the few sinkers and changeups he threw, had whiff rates of at least 44%. Maybe he was facing his former team, or maybe he was just starting to find his groove in his sixth start of the season; however, all of his pitches had an extra tick of velocity from his offseason averages. Despite his efforts, the Tigers allowed two runs in the top of the ninth inning and the Cardinals took the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader, 2-1. (The Tigers won the nightcap, 11-6.)
Flaherty's good start could be the perfect starting point for a big contract if he re-enters his age-29 season. Despite this outing, there are plenty of indications that Jack is indeed back. His 2.85 FIP is against his 4.00 ERA, and he is striking out 10 batters per walk, a league-leading average. Most encouraging is that he made each start and threw at least five innings and 87 pitches in each of them, which is no small feat for a guy who hasn't qualified for the ERA title since the 2019 campaign broke out. If the Tigers are going to hang on in the race, they're going to need more than ace Tarik Skubal throwing big innings. Flaherty looks like a talented no. 2.
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