7 picks our favorite gambling expert

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, an integrated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Memorial Tournament, which begins Thursday in Dublin, Ohio. Along with Kannon's recommended games, you'll see data from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform featuring a series of games with attractive rewards, giving fans all kinds of ways to get in on the action without risking money.

For the second time in a month, the PGA Tour is using one of its best events to serve as a precursor to a major tournament. In May, it was the Wells Fargo Championship, the Signature Event, which precedes the PGA Championship. Now, the Memorial tournament, also in the form of a Signature Event, comes a week before the US Open.

This week on the Tour is often referred to as the stop at “Jack's Place.” Jack Nicklaus is the owner and designer of Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, a course he opened in 1974 when the Memorial was first made in 1976.

Nicklaus has made many changes to the golf course over the years, with the latest changes being made in 2020. As it stands now, the course stretches to about 7,600 yards. It's a par 72 with open fairways bordering a huge, thick penalty. Vegetation is smaller than average, unmodified, very fast, bentgrass subsoils. Muirfield Village is named after Nicklaus' favorite British Open venue, Muirfield in Scotland, where he won the claret trophy in 1966. The design, in many ways, was inspired by another Nicklaus favorite, Augusta National, where Jack won the Masters six times. Perhaps the greatest example of Augusta comparison is the 12th hole at Muirfield Village. Almost a carbon copy of the iconic par-3 12th hole at Augusta National.

Yes, we have seen some crossover success where Masters winners also win the Memorial. Tiger Woods has won here five times. Both Nicklaus and Tom Watson have won the Memorial along with Raymond Floyd, Fred Couples, and most recently, Jon Rahm. The Memorial also seems to have ties to US Open success with Bryson DeChambeau, Rahm, Watson, Floyd, Woods, Justin Rose, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Curtis Strange and Hale Irwin all winning both tournaments.

The distance from the tee at Muirfield Village certainly helps, as it always does, but the course has seen many short knockers succeed as well. The wide roads don't make Driving Precision a big requirement, but avoiding the rough is important as it is one of the harshest penalties we see all season. In true Nicklaus fashion, Muirfield Village is a second shot golf course. The iron game should be incredibly strong. And a long iron play at that, most of the shots come from 175 yards and more on this small green. And because of that, Scrambling becomes an important category. These greens will be missed and the ups and downs have proven to be a key ingredient to success here over the years.

We noted match ties for Augusta National and the US Open. It's true, Muirfield Village really does need a little bit of everything to achieve success, just like the big tournaments do. And while I've considered many statistical areas this week, I've emphasized iron play (Strokes Gained: Proximity), Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards), and Scrambling.

I believe there are many paths one can take when trying to identify subjects connected to Muirfield Village. We can note Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, and Quail Hollow for their height and their heroic pedigree. Augusta National should be in the discussion. We can look at other Nicklaus designs like Valhalla Golf Club, but I believe that from a structural standpoint, with courses that require similar skill sets, TPC Potomac (2022 Wells Fargo Championship), The Concession (2021 WGC – Workday Championship), Oak Hill I- Country Club (2023 PGA Championship), Innisbrook (Valspar Championship), Firestone Country Club (once a popular tour destination for decades), and TPC Twin Cities (3M Open) present great similarities. It's a mixed bag for sure, but you tend to see a lot of the same names succeeding across these properties and Muirfield Village.

Let's get to the clothes. I played every pick this week for an outright win and a top 20 finish. Mind you, with all the pros out there this week, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, etc., we're getting some great prices from some of the “other” world's best players — in a field, mind you, of only 73 players.

Russell Henley (40-1)

I spoke with a special focus on SG: Approach, Rip, and Scoring on Par 4ss this week. Henley is one of the best in the field when you combine all three. In the last 36 rounds, he is 13th in approach, sixth in Scrambling, and 15th in Par 4s measuring 450-500 yards. He finished 16th last year and recently finished well at the Masters. Henley finished ninth in the Valspar Championship. I also like the current form, with three top 12s in the last two months.

Keegan Bradley (60-1)

Current form has been great for Bradley as well, going 21-18—and finishing second at the Wells Fargo Championship, PGA Championship, and Charles Schwab Challenge, respectively. He finished second at Valspar in 2021 and finished second at TPC Potomac in 2022. He finished in the top ten here at the Memorial twice. In the past 36 rounds, he ranks 20th in the field in SG: Off the Tee, 23rd in SG: Approach, and eighth in SG: Putting (bentgrass).

Alex Noren (60-1)

We've been rooting for Noren quite a bit this season and despite not winning, he had eight top-25 finishes before missing his first cut of the season last week in Canada. He's good in almost every category this week and over the past 36 rounds, ranking in the top 10 in Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards), Par 5 score (550-600 yards), and Bogey Avoidance.

Sam Burns (60-1)

Burns has missed points at the PGA Championship between a 13th-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last month and a 10th-place finish in Canada last week. It looks like his early season form is coming back. He has won the Valspar Championship twice, finished seventh at TPC Twin Cities, and was 16th last season. He is high in all stats this week, including 16th in SG: Off the Tee, 13th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Par 5s (550-600 yards), 16th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 12th in SG: Putting (bentgrass) in the last 36 rounds.

Shane Lowry (70-1)

Lowry won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone CC in 2015 in Akron, Ohio and has finished 15-6-16 here in Dublin. When he arrived, he won the club event, the Zurich Classic in New Orleans, placed sixth in the PGA Championship, and shot three of four rounds in the 60s last week in Canada. He was 12th at Valspar in 2022 and 12th last year at Oak Hill in the PGA Championship. In the last 36 rounds, Lowry is 19th in the field in SG: Off the Tee, 10th in SG: Approach, ninth in Par 4's (450-500 yards), and 12 in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards.

Tom Hoge (92-1)

Aside from Scottie Scheffler, Hoge may be the best hitter on the field this week. He ranks third in passing and is 13th in Good Drives Over the last 36 rounds. He was 13th in 2018 and fourth at TPC Twin Cities in 2022. He comes off just one cut short all season in stroke play and was 23rd three weeks ago at the PGA Championship, followed by 17th at the Charles Schwab Challenge. .

Kurt Kitayama (125-1)

Winner of last year's Signature Event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Kitayama has begun to emerge as the best player of his career. He also missed just one cut all season and finished tied for 26th at the PGA Championship. He was 15 at TPC Potomac in 2022 and finished fourth at last year's PGA Championship at Oak Hill. In the last 36 rounds, Kitayama ranks 10th in the field in SG: Off the Tee, 20th in SG: Approach, and 18th in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards.

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