The Mets head to London for the World Series against the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York has a 27-35 record over the Rockies and Marlins in the National League. They are only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race, proving the NL's marginality over its top four teams. There are six clubs between the Mets and the current playoff team, the Padres.
If the Mets don't make significant improvements over the next six-plus weeks, they will enter the deadline as a bargain. Upcoming free agents are always highly visible trades. The Mets have no shortage of rent they can market. Sean Manaea (with a $13.5MM player option for next season), JD Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana again Jake Diekman they can all move. Yet there is no more interesting trade candidate for the Mets than their first baseman.
Pete Alonso it's a few months since his first trip to the open market. He reportedly turned down a $158MM extension last summer. President of baseball operations David Stearns made it clear throughout the offseason that while the Mets were not interested in trading Alonso this winter, they did not expect to reopen extension talks before he hit free agency.
That should fuel plenty of trade speculation as the deadline approaches. That is apparently already happening in offices outside of Queens. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that many rival managers expect the Mets to trade Alonso before the deadline. That seems more like an informed guess than the suggestion that his name has come up in trade talks so far.
Will negotiations gain legitimacy in the coming weeks? There is a definite argument for the Mets to move Alonso. Apparently they don't plan to stop him from exploring the free market. Alonso will start his next contract in his age 30 season. While Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers preferred not to invest heavily in defensively-rated sluggers. He obviously has a lot more resources at his disposal now, but it's fair to wonder if Alonso is the type of player Stearns wants to build around.
That's especially true of the slow decline in Alonso's hit-and-run metrics. He can still hit the ball as hard as anyone, but he's done it a little less consistently over the last few seasons. The Polar Bear's strikeout rate (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) hit 47.3% back in 2021. It dropped by a few points over the next two seasons. A solid 40.1% contact rate this year is the same as last season. It ranks Alonso 129th out of 263 professional hitters.
A dip in the level of hard contact didn't make Alonso a bad hitter, of course. He is hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers in 267 plate appearances. After accounting for Citi Field's pitcher-friendly environment and the league's depressed running environment, that's 27 percent better than average. Alonso remains a middle-of-the-order bat, but it's a trend towards a player whose game is built on power.
If the front office has concerns about Alonso's long-term projection, a trade would be the most logical decision. The Mets would get very little in return if they let him walk in free agency. They will give him a chance to qualify, but they will only be selected after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. As a luxury taxpayer, they are entitled to the lowest possible compensation for losing a qualified free agent. The trade offers they receive this summer will be better than that, even if Alonso's limited control window and $20.5MM arbitration salary make it unlikely that they will receive upper-class benefits.
For the Mets to keep Alonso, they will have to believe there is a realistic path to the 2024 postseason and/or feel good about their chances of keeping him in free agency. Making the play-offs this year is impossible, but they have put themselves in a hole with their poor start. Holding onto Alonso may be more about the latter situation – a sign they are confident he will stay in New York after seeing what other teams have to offer.
Owner Steve Cohen knows better than anyone. He may be keen to keep Alonso, who has proven himself in New York and has been a fan favorite since his electrifying rookie season. However, the Mets have been restricted for the past two seasons after their bid to make the playoffs in 2021 failed. (The Mets won 101 games in 2022, but followed last year's 75-win first-round exit.) The Mets appear to be preparing for a bidding war with the Yankees and others. Juan Sotowhich could take another important away from Alonso.
It's at least worth considering the possibility of the Mets trading Alonso before trying to bring him back next winter. That's not unheard of but it doesn't happen often, especially with the top players in the market. A trade at the deadline usually indicates an understanding that the team and player will not match the contract figures.
How will the Mets handle this situation? Will Alonso leave this summer?
Take Our Vote
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Source link
