With the Boston Celtics now the 2023-24 NBA champions, our focus has now shifted to the 2024 offseason, and a large part of the offseason is free agency.
Every season, teams wish to get the best players for the best price. In sports, the objective is about gaining a competitive advantage over their opponents. Part of that revolves around finding players who are overlooked by the market (the central premise of the movie/book “Moneyball”). Last season, the Dallas Mavericks signed Derrick Jones Jr. at a low rate, but ended up being its starter in the NBA Finals. That's an incredible amount to get for a player paying 1.48% of the salary cap.
In this article, we will try to identify players who can sign similar deals. Players who, by being paid less, help their new employers get a bigger edge in the market.
De'Anthony Melton
Why He's Great: Since being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, De'Anthony Melton has been one of the best role guards in basketball. Starting with James Harden, then Tyrese Maxey, Melton did a good job taking on the other team's toughest perimeter share (87th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes) while splitting the floor (37.9% 3- point shooter over two years ago) and providing idle juice. Last year, he was in the 56th percentile in average shots created by his teammates per 100 possessions (according to the Thinking Basketball website). Two players like Melton are incredibly important when you get to the playoffs.
Why He May Be Underpaid: After the New Year, Melton only appeared in the 76ers final 50 games of the season as he dealt with a mysterious back injury. The injury was so debilitating that it limited him to a total of seven minutes in the 76ers' first-round series against the New York Knicks. An injury like that does two things when it comes to a player's value: 1) it scares off suitors, and 2) it makes people forget how good the player is. In Melton's case, his nagging injuries may lower his value to the point where he ends up signing at the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (worth around $12.9 million) when he's actually worth something like $18-20 million per year.
Goga Bitadze
Why He's Great: What if I told you there was a center who was a good rim protector, rebounder, rim runner, and had good hands? Is that what you would be interested in? Well, Goga Bitadze is your guy. Last season, Bitadze was in the 97th percentile in block rate (rim protection), 94th percentile in offensive rebounding rate (rebounding), and 65th percentile in steals (good hands). In addition, he averaged nearly one dunk for every 18.8 minutes he played (rim runner). Bitadze can't anchor the midfield for 30+ minutes a night, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a better backup than him.
Goga Bitadze will be a veteran acquisition and will be an absolute steal for anyone lucky enough to land him.
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) June 19, 2024
Why He May Be Underpaid: Bitadze did a lot of damage in the first half of the season, closing the first place in the Orlando Magic and Wendell Carter Jr. he was absent due to a hand injury. When Carter returned, Bitadze lost his place in the rotation, as Head Coach Jamahl Mosley preferred to go with Moritz Wagner in the backup five spot. The Magic's depth at center may have lowered Bitadze's value on the open market, leading teams to view him as a high-level veteran player (approx. 2.4 million next year at his level of experience) when he should be closer to the Bi-Annual Exception (approx. 4.7 million dollars).
Jae'Sean Tate
Why He's Great: Functionally, Jae'Sean Tate is my favorite to be Jones next season. Tate is a solid defender (87th percentile in DEF EPM) who can wear multiple hats on that end of the floor. He's a sound point-of-attack defender who can use his size (6'8 wingspan) and ability to handle big jobs (see clip below). His 81st percentile steal rate and 40th percentile block rate also show that he can work as an off-ball/nail defender and high-level rim protector. He's a poor shooter (29.9% from three), but succeeds with a driving game that exceeds what you'd expect from his archetype (84th percentile true shooting on drives).
Here's Jae'Sean Tate blocking Aaron Gordon, then stripping him.
The best defender in the defense of the league # 1. pic.twitter.com/ZOtaKM32Ys
– Itamar (@Itamar_17_10) November 25, 2023
Why He May Be Underpaid: First, the Houston Rockets need to choose not to pick up Tate's team option (worth about $7.6 million) to become a free agent. If that happens, I definitely see Tate having to deal with the veteran's low price (2.2 million based on his experience level). The Rockets' roster was loaded with wings/forwards (Dillion Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Jeff Green), which led to Tate taking a reduced role most of the season (he averaged a career-low 15.9 minutes per game). On the right wing, Tate could easily play 22-25 minutes per night. Unfortunately for Tate, since the Rockets' roster had a lot of overlapping talent, a team that could offer him that role would be unable to get him for less.
Lonnie Walker IV
Why He's Great: This The last NBA Finals taught us the value of having rim protection comes from positions outside the center. Good rim protection is the best way to do this building a great defensetherefore to be able to find from as many different places as possible is a huge improvement. Lonnie Walker IV can give you just that in a two-guard position. Last season, he ranked in the 57th percentile in block rate leaguewide (good the place to be if you are a shooting guard). This gives the rim protection while not damaging your space. Last year, he was a 38.4% 3-point shooter while also ranking in the 98th percentile in three-point volume (9.8 threes per 75 possessions). Also, don't forget that Walker was recently eliminated from his 2023 Western Conference Championship Semifinals against the Golden State Warriors, where he averaged 10.6 PPG on 65.4% the truth shooting while providing excellent two-way gameplay.
Why He May Be Underpaid: Walker just spent a year with the Brooklyn Nets without a way. The team had plenty of wings/forwards (Walker, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Cam Thomas, and Dorian Finney-Smith, among others) but very little in the way of ball creation. Players like Walker are at their best when they can stay off the ball in a more focused role. The Nets couldn't give Walker that opportunity, and his numbers suffered as a result (30th percentile true shooting). To make matters worse, Walker also missed 24 games last year due to injury. In the 2023 offseason, Walker signed with the Nets for a veteran low. He hasn't done anything this year that warrants him getting more than that. But if you put him on a well-constructed roster, he can produce at a level that far exceeds the minimum price.
Gordon Hayward
Why He's Great: Before a calf injury derailed his season, Gordon Hayward had a productive 33-year season with the Charlotte Hornets – averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.6 APG, and 1.1 SPG in 31.9 minutes per contest. That version of Hayward was a guy with size (6'7) who could shoot, drive, kick. And with 36 playoff games under his belt, Hayward is a battle-tested veteran who knows what it takes to play in the big game. On a contending team, Hayward can be a solid asset off the bench (as long as he stays healthy).
Ever since they traded for Russell Westbrook, the Thunder's motto for building a team is guys with size who can shoot, drive, and kick.
That's exactly what Gordon Hayward brings to the table. One of the best draft picks for the fastest running organization in basketball.
With @OptaAnalystUS pic.twitter.com/XG8YsDxzxl
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) February 8, 2024
Why He May Be Underpaid: At the trade deadline, Hayward was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder – a minor league contender who was supposed to give him a chance to make a run during the 2024 Playoff run. However, for one reason or another, Hayward was not given the opportunity to do so, playing only 46 minutes in the seven games in which he appeared. Given his performance and his age and injury history, Hayward will likely sign a veteran (or a little more than that) this offseason. If he turns out to be the player the Thunder thought they were trading for, he will be one of the biggest steals of the 2024 season.
Honorable Mention: Javonte Green – Green only played nine games last year, but in that time, he ranked in the 85th percentile in steal rate, 86th percentile in block rate, and 98th percentile in rim efficiency while shooting 37% from downtown. If he signs with a team, Green won't get more than a veteran minimum. But if the small sample size he flashed at the end of 2023-24 was any indication, he could say a lot more than a little on an NBA team next season.
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