Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I'll be kicking off your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
The Mariners are in the driver's seat in the AL West, with a 5.5 game lead over the Astros, and an 80% chance of returning to the playoffs after falling short last season. And considering they just played their 81st game last night, a tough 4-3 loss to the Rays in which they led 3-1 going into the eighth, now seems like a good time to examine what makes a baseball career president — and a well-known businessman. – Jerry Dipoto is due between now and the July 30 trade deadline.
Seattle's success was fueled by its play, especially its fifth start. Only the Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles have had lower ERAs in their rotations, and after Sunday's play, Mariners starters have pitched 23 more innings than Yankees starters in the same number of games. The M's arguably have three aces in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert; Their fourth and fifth starters, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, aren't too bad either. Woo's innings will likely have to be carefully managed after he started the season in the IL with arm issues, which led to him missing a few early starts. He was pulled in the fourth inning of Monday's game with a strained right hamstring, though it's unclear at this time how much time, if any, he will miss. Either way, the Mariners can handle limited or no Woo because of how many front three innings he's been able to cover.
Their pitchers generally do their job, ranking 13th in team ERA entering Monday, and fellow closers Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek have done a solid job of finishing games. The bullpen depth was supposed to be a strength entering the season, but with Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar out for the season and Gregory Santos yet to pitch this year, the Mariners are a little thin in the middle innings. Still, Santos is expected to begin a rebuild soon, and the bullpen's bottom-line issues should be easy to solve with little movement between now and the trade deadline.
On the other hand, Seattle's soft offense won't be an easy fix. His 97+ wRC+ ranks 17th entering this week, and the guys who were supposed to lead the lineup (Julio Rodríguez, JP Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and offseason additions Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco) have all been below average in the first half of games. the season. Strong contributions from Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Josh Rojas — along with the resurgence of Ty France — have kept the offense from getting even more disappointing, but the lineup isn't good enough for the Watermen to go deep. a playoff run.
Raleigh is the only Mariners player with at least 10 home runs in the middle of the season; he's hitting 26 homers, four less than last year. Rodríguez's power has also declined this season. He surrendered just seven runs after his first 30-homer campaign last year. It is worth noting that Rodríguez struggled in the first half of 2023. At this point last year, he had 13 home runs and a 104 wRC+ before blasting 19 dingers and a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, so the Mariners should be confident that the 23-year-old will turn things around. However, even with Julio at his best, Seattle needs more offense.
There will, as always, be rental bats available. Guys like Tommy Pham or Josh Bell (especially if he's on one of his annual hot streaks) can certainly help the Mariners add depth and expand their roster, but they need a game changer, someone to make pitchers sweat, and there isn't one like that. on the rental market unless the Mets are willing to trade Pete Alonso. So Dipoto may have to step up, even if he has to give up Miller or Woo or a top prospect like Harry Ford or Cole Young in such a move. Here are some players the Mariners should target in a trade:
The Risky Rooker
Brent Rooker is good at one thing: hitting the ball. He is best suited as a DH instead of playing the outfield. He also walks at a solid clip and hits a ton. But when he does connect, few hitters in the league make good contact. Rooker is over 90 percent for xSLG, barrel rate, slugging rate, and sweet spot percentage (he's better than Luis Arraez there!), helping him hit 43 homers since the start of 2023 after being convicted by A. in the 2022-23 offseason. Most importantly, his power plays anywhere: He has 13 home runs this year, and would have had a few more if all of his at-bats had been in Seattle, according to Statcast.
The thing about Rooker is that he's streaky. Last year, he had a bonkers 232 wRC+ in March/April and then posted monthly marks of, respectively, 77, 74, 144, 94, and 159 the rest of the way. This season has been the same story. He had a 122 wRC+ in the first month and a 185 mark in May, but dropped to 84 in June. Still, even Rooker running would benefit the Mariners, especially since he is club-controlled through the 2027 season.
General Team Trading
The Rays never shy away from trading their big league roster, even when they are in contention for the playoffs. And they would never hesitate to trade with the Mariners, with last season's José Caballero-for-Luke Raley providing the most recent example in a long line of trades between the two teams.
While the Mariners were interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes last season, I would argue that acquiring him would not work out. Paredes has made a name for himself with his ability to draw from the sideline, but that approach would not be useful if he were playing his home games in Seattle. According to Statcast, only six of the Parades' 11 runs this season would not have ended at T-Mobile Park, which has less-than-ideal park features; this year, the environment lowered the ball's distance by an average of six feet, which is not ideal for a hitter like Paredes who relies on a perfect horizontal spray angle.
Randy Arozarena has struggled a lot this season, and Brandon Lowe is too injury prone to be trusted as a true mentor. But what about Josh Lowe? He has missed some time this year due to injury, but he is healthy and boasts strength and speed. Like Rooker, Lowe is manageable; he is not scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2028 season. For this reason, the Rays will ask for a lot in return. But Lowe would be a great fit for the Mariners, essentially a simple, left-handed version of our next and final trade.
White Whale (Sox).
Injuries will always be at the forefront of any discussion surrounding the White Sox's powerful center fielder, Luis Robert Jr. Most recently, he missed 55 of Chicago's first 79 games this season after re-injuring the same hip that limited him to 68 games in 2021. .But what he did last year, in his first and last full season, should make teams looking to upgrade their roster be confused about getting him. Robert has 40-homer power and 20-base swipe speed. He's also a solid defensive pitcher with a strong throwing arm, tools that should make him a top-tier right fielder — where he would likely slide because Seattle still has Rodríguez in center.
Robert is not without his faults; in addition to his injury history, he hits a ton and doesn't really go away. But it's clear he'll be a better second baseman for the Mariners and a game-changing force they desperately need. And while he's calling for a king's ransom that could end Seattle's farm system, this is the kind of move that fits the Mariners well. They will find a player whose talent equals that of Rodríguez again the other is under club control until 2027, with two clubs worth $20 million sure to pick up.
Will the White Sox move him? There seems to be no one untouchable on Chicago's roster, but general manager Chris Getz has every right to ask for a month. Are the Mariners willing to fork out for another star? They should be.
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