Even after a 9-2 drubbing of the Yankees last night, the Blue Jays sit six games under .500. They are at the bottom of the AL East with a 37-43 record and have three teams between them and the Royals – who hold the final American League playoff spot.
It's not exactly where the Jays expected to find themselves midway through the season. Toronto has won between 89 and 92 games the past three seasons and has reached the postseason in three of the past four years. They should be equal in their competition window.
That sets up the Jays as one of the most interesting pivot teams in the coming month. They're not willing to sell, but they're running out of time to play their way back into the playoffs. Toronto is 6.5 back in the Wild Card race. Any hope they had of winning this division going into this year has long since disappeared.
GM Ross Atkins acknowledged the team's dire situation when he spoke to Toronto Beat before Thursday's win. “We have obviously put ourselves in a difficult position these past seven days,” Atkins said (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “Ten days ago, we felt that there was a good momentum, and that has passed.“
ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote earlier this week that the Jays weren't ready to make key players available in a trade. Atkins suggested as much in his comments Thursday, saying the front office “focus on the 2024 team.” While the GM acknowledges that any decision involves considerations of the future, he pointed to the organization's investment in both salaries and expected income from this list. “We will continue to do that until it no longer makes sense to do so,” he added.
That naturally raises the question of when the front office might decide it has no choice but to shift its focus toward the future. That will largely depend on how things go over the next four to five weeks – in Toronto and throughout the American League. “The coming days are very important to us, and understanding the market is also very important to us in any way,” said Atkins (via Matheson). “We are focused on winning. We are focused on building the best team we can this year and supporting them as best we can. When we come to a point where we need to adjust, we will be ready to do so.“
Toronto is no exception to that. There are only five or six (depending on how one feels about the Tigers) teams that look like clear sellers at this point. Yet not many others can feel secure about their chances of reaching the postseason. More than half the teams in the league can determine their deadline based on how they perform in July. Various clubs could also try to interfere with the lineup by moving veterans while looking for immediate help in other areas of the roster.
The Jays have a more established roster than most of those fringe teams. Toronto has potential buyers with varying degrees of control over clubs. Once again Danny Jansen or Yusei Kikuchi has played well in recent weeks, however both have had a good start to the season. Jansen is an upcoming free agent catcher, while Kikuchi will be one of the starting pitchers on the market if the Jays make him available.
I'm Garcia he's playing well and could be a solid target for teams looking for veteran help if he's healthy at the deadline. (He went on the injured list with elbow neuritis two weeks ago.) Justin Turner again Kevin Kiermaier they have disappointing seasons. While the Jays would have to kick in some cash to facilitate a trade for either player, they could get calls based on their records prior to 2024.
Things could get even more interesting if the Jays take a deep look at the key players they are controlling this season. That would mean a bigger reset than just selling to rent. There's an argument for doing that if the Jays can't get back into contention in the next few weeks. Toronto has several players who are in or behind their prime. They have shrinking windows of control in the face of the franchise Vladimir Guerrero Jr. again Bo Bichette, each of which is scheduled to be offered for free after the 2025 campaign. Bichette will make $16.5MM next season, while Guerrero will get a significant raise from this year's $19.9MM salary.
Atkins shot down the idea of trading the star earlier this month. That probably won't stop teams from calling to see if the Jays are willing to reconsider. Bichette himself told Hazel Mae (X link) that he wouldn't be surprised if the Jays moved him, though that could change if the team returns to contention.
Guerrero is in the midst of the second best offensive season of his career. He is hitting .289/.370/.447 in 351 plate appearances. While he hasn't reached the same level of power he did in 2021-22, Guerrero has the second-highest strikeout and on-base percentage of his career. Bichette hasn't hit his usual level, posting a .232/.282/.333 slash line in his 287 plate appearances. While that would make this summer the wrong time to move him, Bichette would still draw a lot of attention if the Jays put him on the market. No everyday shorts seem to be available.
Outside of that duo, the Jays have a few controllable players who can make calls, especially on the flagging side. Jordan Romano spent the past month on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He is a two-time All-Star closer who is under arbitration control next season, however. Romano recently resumed throwing 120 feet in the flat field (via MLB.com's injury tracker). Chris Bassitt make $22MM this season and next. He posted a 3.60 ERA over 33 starts last year and has worked to a 3.45 mark with respectable strikeout and walk numbers over 91 1/3 innings. Trading Kevin Gausmanwho has a contract until 2026, it still seems impossible unless the front office starts a very important reboot.
If the Jays do as they hope next month, adding to the bullpen and deepening the lineup could be priorities. Injuries to Romano and García – paired Photo by Erik Swanson struggles – contributed to the Jays losing one of the most consistent relief teams in the majors. The bottom half of the program did not perform as well as expected. That is due to the ineffectiveness of players like Bichette, Turner, Kiermaier and George Springer. The Jays also entered this season with questions at second and third base. They hooked a rookie Spencer Horwitz in general action in the keystone while the free agent signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who has quietly impressed with a .283/.333/.402 showing) has found plenty of third basemen.
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