The Brewers began their summer trade season with a deal to bring in some much-needed rotation help, announcing the acquisition of a right-hander. Aaron Civale from the Rays in exchange for an infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Milwaukee designated righty Taylor Clarke for the corresponding assignment.
It's one of the first notable trades of the 2024 season — one that addresses a key need for the Brewers (rotation depth) while also acquiring long-term value for a Rays club with multiple arms close to returning from injury. The right hand Shane Baz's rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgery is wrapping up nicely, while the southpaw Jeffrey Springs is coming back from his Tommy John procedure, which was done last April. That's right Drew Rasmussenwho underwent internal surgery last July, is far behind the two but is now one year removed from his surgery.
When those arms are about to come back they will put them aside Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Hello Bradley again Ryan Pepiot, the Rays are reportedly open to dealing some rotation help – with Civale and Littell the main names among the reported possibilities. It emphasizes that there is no indication that Tampa Bay is ready to embark on a full rebuild or a significant summer trade. The organization feels that moving Civale (and possibly still listening to Littell and Eflin) is a matter of trading from a position of strength. The Rays exist in a perpetual state of both “buyer” and “seller,” constantly swapping veterans with diminishing levels of club control (like Civale) for younger, more manageable talent.
While the Rays are currently loaded with active replacements, the same cannot be said for an injury-plagued Brewers team in 2024. Wade Miley he had Tommy John surgery early in the season, and a well-considered chance to throw in the towel Robert Gasser he followed suit last month after impressing in his first five major league games (2.57 ERA). DL Hallacquired from the Orioles earlier in the season Corbin Burns trade, has been out since April on its knees. That's right Joe Ross He is on the 60-day disabled list with back pain.
The Brewers, who just got it Dallas Keuchel in a trade with the Mariners (and got a rough start and a sharp second outing from the former Cy Young winner), they've already used 15 starting pitchers this season. Civale will make 16. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has done it Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea again Tobias Myers in the exchange next to Keuchel. Rea and Myers exceeded any expectations, combining for 25 runs (14 for Rea, 11 for Myers) while both sported an earned run average well south of 4.00. They have been the saviors of first-year captain Pat Murphy's rotation, but other reinforcements have been known to be the target of Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold and his staff with the trade deadline now just 27 days away.
While it sounds like most pitchers thrive and turn into a new gear when they are traded to the Rays organization, that was not the case for Civale. It was acquired late last July in a trade that sends the first base Kyle Manzardo In Cleveland, Civale came to the Rays with two and a half years of club control and a strong record with the Guardians. The 2016 third-round pick has had his share of injury issues but has been very good when healthy. In parts of five seasons, he pitched Cleveland 430 innings of ball with a 3.77 ERA, all coming out of the rotation. He went 5 2/3 innings per outing, striking out a slightly below-average 21.1% of his opponents and walking at an impressive 6.1% clip.
With Tampa Bay, Civale struggled to keep his ERA down. He worked to a 5.17 ERA in 132 1/3 frames dating back to last year's deadline. That unfavorable mark comes despite the fact that Civale has significantly improved his strikeout rate (24.7%) as the league's strikeout rate has declined. He generally maintains his solid command, too (6.5% walk rate).
However, Civale has tended to be more inclined at home, averaging 1.56 home runs in nine innings pitched – a big jump from the 1.19 HR/9 average he averaged in Cleveland. He also suffered a spike in his average on balls in play (despite Tampa Bay's stout defense). All combined with Civale's tank streak rate and lead to more runners crossing the plate, as metrics like xFIP and SIERA felt like he was a comparable pitcher to his Cleveland days from a skill standpoint.
Acquiring Civale is something of a roll of the dice by the Brewers. Adding any regular home fielder and plugging him into the Brewers' American Family Field fun is no accident. That said, Milwaukee also has a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, as do the Rays and pitchers. The Brewers likely have their own tweaks and minor changes to the game plan that they feel could help bring Civale back to his Cleveland form. Failing that, he should at least provide back-to-back innings.
For a budget-conscious team like the Brewers, Civale certainly holds more appeal. He earns an estimated $4.9MM in 2024, with about $2.34MM of that amount still to be paid. The Brewers will pick up the remainder of that tab. They will also subject Civale to arbitration through the 2025 season, making him a multi-year member of the rotation. He will be promoted one last time, although with his slow start to the season, his ability to gain in that process will be suppressed even if he makes the switch with the Brew Crew.
Barrios would give the Rays another talented infielder to plug into the system. The 20-year-old Venezuelan native is already in High-A and has handled the level well despite facing older competition. In 60 games (252 plate appearances), Barrios is slashing .317/.361/.423 (121 wRC+) with a homer, 17 doubles, two triples, 16 steals (in 22 attempts), a walk rate of -5.2% and less. 9.5% hit rate.
Entering the season, Baseball America ranked Barrios 26th in Milwaukee's program. He remained No. 21 on MLB.com's list of the Brewers' top 30 prospects at the time of the trade, and Keith Law of The Athletic listed him just outside the top 20 farmworkers heading into the season. Barrios' strong defensive skills and ability to be an extra glove at shortstop made him a promising prospect in Milwaukee's program as he struggled through his first three professional seasons.
That well-thought-out glove now looks more interesting with Barrios hitting well against the more advanced pitching in High-A. He will likely go among the Rays' top 30 or so prospects moving forward. Barrios won't do anything to improve the Rays' chances in 2024 (unless he's included in a subsequent trade for help elsewhere), but in late 2025 or early 2026, he could push for a major league debut if he can continue. this offensive burst. He won't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, so the Rays shouldn't worry about adding him to the 40-man roster anytime soon.
While it's the first significant trade of the season for both teams, it may be the last. The Brewers could use some pitching help and have plenty of young outfielders who will continue to pique the interest of other clubs. The Rays have opened up one rotation spot, likely for Baz, but still have another dominant arm (Seedlings) in the works and another on the horizon (Rasmussen). They are currently three games back in the AL Wild Card race, so a complete sell-off shouldn't be expected (barring a long losing streak), but their arms will attract interest and give them an opportunity to re-buy their farm. (as they did in this deal) or add big league help in another area of need as the deadline approaches.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Civale had been traded to Milwaukee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Brewers were sending a minor leaguer to Tampa Bay. The Post's Joel Sherman first reported that Barrios was the returner on the 1-for-1 shift.
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