There are now just three weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline and many clubs will have to decide whether to buy or sell or a combination of the two. Red Sox baseball executive Craig Breslow recently aired today's episode of the Fenway Rundown podcast with hosts Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam, with Cotillo and McAdam both writing columns for MassLive after the podcast.
Perhaps most notably, Breslow suggested that the Sox would choose the buy/sell route, as opposed to trying to walk a fine line between the two paths. “The route we choose will be determined by a number of considerations and none are more important than what happens on the field,” Breslow said. “So I am still standing and determined to choose the route. We will have more information in the next few weeks. But one thing we can do that helps guide that way is win as many games as possible on the field.”
Deciding how to meet a deadline can be tricky for a front office manager, as Breslow himself highlights. “My job is different than Alex (Cora)'s job or the players' job, while they can focus on doing everything they need to do to prepare to win that night's game, I have to think how. we can put ourselves in a good position to win tonight's game and tomorrow's game and next year's game. Trying to balance all those things is hard sometimes. “
That difficulty sometimes leads decision makers to try to pick a mix of buys and sells, something Red Sox fans are familiar with. In 2022, the club was hovering around .500 as the deadline approached. Then CBO Chaim Bloom traded Christian Vázquez to the Astros Wilyer Abreu again Emanuel Valdéz in a very clear way to “sell” but also hold on to future free agents Nathan Eovaldi, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill again JD Martinezwhile you “buy” by getting Tommy Pham from Rs and Eric Hosmer at the Padres.
That plan didn't work in the short term, as the Sox fell further behind in the race and struggled again in 2023, leading to Bloom being fired and Breslow replaced. The Vázquez deal looks better in retrospect when Abreu became a key contributor while Valdez played a bigger role at the club, but hindsight also cuts both ways as the decision not to trade other candidates looks unwise now.
Given the frustration of that deadline, it's perhaps refreshing that Breslow is announcing that he'll lean into one camp or the other, though he hasn't decided between the two. The club is 49-40 and currently holds the last Wild Card spot in the American League, with teams like the Royals, Astros and Rays not far behind. As Breslow said, the results in the next few weeks will help him make his decision to play his cards before the deadline.
If the Sox stay in the playoffs, it seems fair to expect that Breslow will choose the buyer's route and offer some clues as to what he might be looking to do in that situation. He used the phrase “You can never have too much pitching” and mentioned the right-handed bat as a possibility.
“You can never have too many listens. “You're always injured or, a few unfortunate outs away from being in the hole, and, sometimes when you don't have a deep start to get through the second half of the season, that puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen,” Breslow said of the pitching mentality. As for the offense, he says the club “also has a heavy left hand (from an offensive standpoint). The possibility that you might be looking to add a case to the right would make sense. “
The Sox currently have a combined cycle Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Brian Bello, Cutter Crawford again Josh Winckowski. Houck was outstanding at the start of the season but his results have dipped slightly in recent weeks. He had a 1.91 earned run average after his June 6 exit but a 5.19 ERA over his last five starts. That may be a random variable but there is also likely some fatigue as his 111 innings total this year is already his best at the major league level. Winckowski and Crawford are similar in some ways, as neither has gone much past the 130-inning range before. Bello has a 5.19 ERA while Pivetta has a good strikeout/walk ratio but with persistent home run issues keeping his ERA above 4.00.
Overall, the rotation has been a strength this year, as Boston's starters have a collective 3.59 ERA that ranks seventh best in the majors. But there are question marks there and the depth is not surprising. That's thanks in part Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock again Chris Murphy all required season-ending UCL surgery. Chase Anderson in the bullpen as a tall man but has a 4.89 ERA despite having a very lucky .203 batting average in balls in play. Bryan Mata he is on a rehab assignment but has been pitching two to three innings. Brandon Walter he was on the injured list all year. Cooper Criswell he was very good this year though Brad Keller it had violent consequences.
Overall, it would make a lot of sense to add to that team, especially if any of its current replacement members are going to hit any kind of workload limits. Cora recently spoke with McAdam for a piece on MassLive about providing a breather for the club's startups, though those plans haven't been finalized yet. And as Breslow says, injuries can happen at any time and increase demand. Other jars that may be available during the last period include Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber again Trevor Rogersamong others.
As for the program, as Breslow said, it reads to the left. Tyler O'Neill, Connor Wong again Ceddanne Rafaela they are the only right-handed hitters on the team who have advanced 180 or more times this year. Getting another right there would balance things out but the most obvious area of improvement would be the first base and the club could have it. Places to stay in Triston Casas come back. “You go around position-by-position and look at where we haven't gotten the product that we would need,” Breslow said. “And obviously Triston is a big loss that we need to overcome, but it looks like his recovery is going well and we can expect him to come back.”
The Sox have had a tepid slash of .226/.316/.384 from the first base slot this year, which translates to a 94 wRC+ that is 19th-best in the league. That included a solid performance from Casas, who slashed .244/.344/.513 in 22 games before going on the injured list because of a torn plate in his middle. Dominic Smith picked up more playing time without Casas but hit just .227/.327/.355. Both Smith and Casas are lefties, so the latter's return would not change the lefty's balance but should still improve the offense if Casas is healthy and returns to his old self. Casas hasn't started a rehab assignment but is picking up the slack and could step up to the tee this week, according to the Boston Globe's Alex Speier at X.
If the Sox are trying to find another right bat in the lineup though, some potential infielders could be included Luis Robert Jr., Taylor Ward, Brent Rooker, Justin Turner, Danny Jansen and others, other clubs may start selling in the coming weeks and make other bats available.
As for whether the Sox could take the money at the deadline, Breslow was optimistic about that. “Every time I've been there,” he said, “even when I knew this team was in contention, playing meaningful games, watching potential play-play, the resources were there.” I don't think this will go any other way.”
According to payroll data from Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Sox have been among the league's biggest spenders for most of this century but have taken over recently. As recently as 2019, they had the leading pitching staff in the majors but entered this 12th year with an Opening Day mark of $171MM. For competitive balance tax purposes, the club's number is currently $208MM according to Cot's calculations and $218MM in the eyes of Roster Resource.
The lowest CBT category is $237MM this year, so the Sox should have plenty of cap room even if they want to stay under that line. Although that also depends on Breslow's determination the club's willingness to spend real dollars is correct.
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