7 choose our favorite expert

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, an integrated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Open Championship, which starts on Thursday in Troon, Scotland. Along with Kannon's recommended games, you'll see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that includes both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf tournaments where you can win cash and prizes for each round and tournament.

The final major tournament of the 2024 golf season is upon us, and my favorite of the four majors is here. It is the 152nd edition of the Open Championship and will be held at Royal Troon with 158 players scheduled to meet on the coast of Ayrshire, Scotland, on Thursday.

The last time we saw The Open at Troon was in 2016. There was a big weather bias between the tee times and the overnight waves on Thursday and Friday and Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson took full advantage. It was the final on Sunday and no other player was close. Stenson beat Mickelson in an epic “Ali vs. Frazier” that I have ever seen on a golf course. Stenson beat Lefty in three shots to win it. JB Holmes finished third, shooting 14 times.

Renowned golf course maintenance expert Martin Ebert has been a long-time architect at Royal Troon. He's gotten his hands dirty at least a few times in this area, most recently adding nearly 200 yards in length compared to what we saw in 2016. This original beach links design is a par 71 and now measures 7,385 yards. The first few holes are great scoring opportunities as they often play into the wind. The middle stretch becomes more difficult as the golf course turns to wind up the players, and then there is the final stretch where one will want to hang on for dear life and happily accept to make a par.

There are penalty pot bunkers everywhere. The fairways are uneven, offering very few lies, and on the fairways one will find strong, smart grass and gorse trees. On top of all that, the green is small. The eighth hole is known as the “Postage Stamp” because of its very small putting area. It's only 125 yards on the 3, but the 3 will be a good score all week.

I looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this week and Fairways Gained. I like Driving Accuracy this week by distance but “Total Driver” is good. I looked at Gained Strokes: Approach and Greens in Regulation Gained. With more and more small putting spaces, hitting the greens legally will be key – and that leads us to a hard look at Scrambling where these plants miss. I also looked at Bogey Avoidance – and don't forget to put. The greens will be a lot slower than what we are used to on the PGA Tour.

This week's comparison courses are a little tougher than usual because not only do we usually have a full-fledged link design in play. I used Pebble Beach for its beach style, links type and smaller greens. Last year's Open venue, Royal Liverpool, is the same and has been worked on by Ebert. Southern Hills (2022 PGA Championship) has some similarities in layout as do The Summit Club (2021 CJ Cup) in Las Vegas and St. George's Golf & Country Club (2022 Canadian Open). When Stenson won in 2016, he was incredibly accurate and one of the best pitchers/strikers in the world. That falls with TPC Scottsdale in my mind. Finally, I considered the Hamilton Golf & Country Club, which hosts the 2019 and 2024 Canadian Opens, as it has also seen extensive renovation work by Ebert.

So, who will be leaving Scotland this week as Champion Golfer of the Year? Here are my picks.

Rory McIlroy (+850)

The timing would be amazing if this happened, and I believe it is very likely. Yes, he had a brutal finish last month at the US Open but let's look at it this way: he was there and deserved to win. He defended his title impressively last week at the Scottish Open, finishing fourth. In his career, McIlroy has finished 3-1-5-4-2-3-6 at The Open, with the last two being sixth and third. He was fifth here in 2016 and his only win came at Royal Liverpool. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks in the top five in the field in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Ball Striking and Bogey Avoidance. He is 11th in Scrambling and 10th in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. McIlroy also won in Hamilton and St. George's in Canada, and The Summit in Las Vegas. I believe he will be there again and feel his conversion chances are better than one in 8.5 attempts. In addition to winning outright, I also played in the top ten.

Collin Morikawa (19-1)

I did this a few weeks ago and the number has gone down, which I'm fine with. It looks like rates of around 16-1 are still available. Morikawa has seen a resurgence in his career this season. His attitude, his determination to win again, to be there with the Schefflers and the McIlroys, he's been really impressive since finishing third at Augusta. He feels very similar to the 2016 Stenson in terms of swing, screeching ability and accuracy off the tee. Of course, he has an Open Championship to his name and that came at Royal St. George's, where Ebert works as a consulting architect. Judging by what we've seen from Morikawa since April, he should be on my card to win outright and finish in the top 20.

Tyrrell Hatton (28-1)

The Englishman won for the first time in three years less than a month ago on the LIV circuit in Nashville. He finished fifth here at Royal Troon in 2016 and has recorded sixth, 11th and 20th place finishes last year at Royal Liverpool. He is one of the best players in the world and has a short game that can hang with almost anyone. Hatton took 18th in the 2021 CJ Cup, 13th in the 2022 PGA Championship and finished sixth and 15th at TPC Scottsdale. I believe we are getting a very fair price for a guy with a real shot this week. I've played top 20 here and on other things I've chosen.

Tommy Fleetwood (30-1)

I mentioned this last week, that I already had a ticket to Fleetwood. The price has since come down for him as well. Anything better than 20-1 is excellent and 25-1 or better is fine. The man has been knocking on the door quite a bit in this tournament with a 10-4-2-12-27 finish. He has made the cut six times in a row at The Open and is 10-4-2 in his last three trips. He also won earlier this season on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Invitational. He also fits the Stenson mold well with elite iron play in windy conditions and incredible accuracy off the tee. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks eighth in Scrambling, 16th in Greens in Regulation Gained, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards and 10th from 175-200 yards.

Shane Lowry (45-1)

The Irishman won the Open Championship at his hometown Royal Portrush in 2019. Fleetwood finished second, while Portrush is another subject on The Open rota that relies on Ebert as an architectural consultant. Lowry fits the formula here for tee accuracy, iron play, elite shooting ability and air superiority. Lowry finished sixth and 16th at TPC Scottsdale, 23rd at Southern Hills and 14th at Pebble Beach. He finished second at the Canadian Open in Hamilton in 2019 and 10th in St. George's in 2022. He is ranked No. 1 in the field in the last 36 rounds in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Corey Conners (60-1)

This Canadian player does not come off the page as a links player but he is a high-quality striker and his results in this world are improving. He just finished 13th at the Scottish Open last week and has now won The Open three years in a row, finishing 15th in 2021. The putting game and short game have always been Conners' story but the Open often brings all kinds. of putters into the mix with their slower green speeds. Stenson has never been a good putter and he's been doing well here for the last eight years. Ball hitting, greens in regulation, putting numbers are all top 10 in the field for Conners. I believe a top 20 finish has a good chance and if so, an outright win is more likely.

Emiliano Grillo (300-1)

Conners may be a long shot but this really is a “long bomb”. Grillo has been one of the best putters in the world and has improved his putting technique over the past few seasons – so much so that in all putting statistics this week over the past 24 rounds on slow greens, Grillo is ranked second in the field. . He finished 12th here in 2016, 12th again in 2021, and was sixth last year at Royal Liverpool. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Argentinian finish the top-20 again.

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