The Rangers are the defending World Series champions but currently have a 46-50 record which puts them 7.5 games out of the playoffs. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, general manager Chris Young will have some decisions to make but for now he's hoping his players make the decision for him.
“We're going to do everything we can to win this year,” Young told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, though he left some ambiguity by adding that “you want to take as much time as you can to make a choice and hope next week.” [the results] make it clear that we are consumers.”
The Playoff Odds on FanGraphs currently give them a 12.3% chance of cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Rankings at Baseball Prospectus are less optimistic at 18.2%. Young and his staff are likely to discuss all kinds of trade terms with other clubs in the coming days, as the Rangers host the Orioles for three games, the White Sox for four and then cross the northern border to play three in Toronto. They will then start three games in St. Louis but the deadline will be July 30, after one game against the Cardinals.
It's an interesting place for Young and the Rangers to be, with potential arguments for a buy, sell or some sort of combination. The argument in favor of a buyout will largely hinge on the club having a much better second half than the first.
On the position player side, both Evan Carter again Josh Jung he is currently on the injured list. Carter struggled through the first two months of the season, hitting just .188/.272/.361 while battling the stiffness that eventually put him on the shelf. Manager Bruce Bochy later described it as a stress reaction, according to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, though the timeline is still unclear. Jung only played in four games this year before he was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist, requiring surgery. His rehab has been closed for the past few weeks due to persistent discomfort and his coordination has deteriorated.
On the shooting side, Andrew Heaney it was the only replacement member. Each of the Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen again Jon Gray spent some time on the injured list, although each is currently active. Max Scherzer had postseason surgery and started the season in IL, then had a delayed return due to a thumb injury. He has missed a lot of time this season so far but has returned in recent weeks and has taken the ball five times this year.
The rotation may be to get more reinforcement, with both Jacob deGrom again Tyler Mahle going back to the Tommy John surgery they had last summer. Dane Dunning again Cody Bradford they are also in IL and may return later in the year.
That theoretically strong rotation and the possible return of Carter and/or Jung could encourage the club to push hard at the end, hoping to gain steam with a strong second half. But it can also be an argument for making some sales. Hypothetically, if everyone were to be healthy at some point in the coming months, the club would have nine replacement candidates in deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, Heaney, Lorenzen, Bradford and Dunning.
The club probably doesn't want to bank on them all going live at the same time, so they won't have to cut the number down to five. Dunning tends to focus and can be kept there. Bradford has a 1.40 ERA this year but in a small sample of three starts. Despite the strong results, Rangers will have reason to select him from the young players if he is blocked by their older boys.
But that still leaves seven solid veteran options that could be healthy in the coming weeks. Perhaps the club will feel they can trade an upcoming free agent or two without really “selling” themselves here in 2024 or hurting themselves significantly in the future, something MLBTR's Steve Adams recently looked into in the Front Office subs section. Lorenzen is on a one-year contract and will be back on the open market at the end of the season. Heaney is in the final season of his two-year contract.
Scherzer is scheduled for free agency at the end of the season but has a full no-trade clause. He was recently asked in Foul Territory about giving it up again, as he did coming to the Rangers from the Mets, and that program that transmits video to X. Scherzer said “I don't do that” before elaborating on what he thought was the club. it can play better and make it a bad point.
Eovaldi is in the final guaranteed year of his contract although there is a player option that will extend to 2025 that could be activated. There were three ways for him to activate that player option, though one of them involved making the 2024 All-Star team. Since he was not elected, he is in two hands. His best chance is to reach 300 combined innings pitched in 2023 and 2024. He is currently at 238 and is therefore 62 shy of the line, which he should be able to surpass if he stays healthy throughout the year. His other way to open a player option is to finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. That option creates any potential trade for the Rangers and has limited trade protection in his deal.
Gray and Mahle have one year left on their deals, making them at least plausible trade candidates, although trading them would hurt the team's chances next year. With Scherzer, Heaney and Lorenzen set for free agency after 2024, the Rangers may want to keep Gray and Mahle together through 2025 alongside deGrom, Bradford, Dunning and maybe even Eovaldi.
If the Rangers end up staying strong in trade camp, they'll have those aforementioned pitchers to market, as well as upcoming free agents. David Robertson, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, José Ureña, Travis Jankowski again Robbie Grossman. Based on Young's comments, it sounds like it will take some hard work in the coming weeks for them to sell, but those could be options. Sherman also floats the possibility Adolis García or Nathaniel Lowe availability, or each dispute is controlled until 2026 and it does not seem that there is anything concrete on the table, although it may happen if a certain club comes with an offer that cannot be refused.
Like many other clubs around the league, the Rangers are set for a pseudo postseason push in the coming weeks. With both buyer and seller options seemingly on the table, Texas' season will be on the line in the coming weeks, at least to some extent. As Young and his team must decide how hard to push one way or the other, the next part of the schedule could define the team for the next few months.
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