The Rays are open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with a right-hander Zach Eflin one of the candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.
The Rays are not fully in sales camp as they are currently 51-51 and only 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health improved as the season progressed and gave them a limited surplus. That allowed them to explore deals that would address another roster spot, strengthen prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.
Each of the Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs again Drew Rasmussen started the season recovering from previous arm surgery. Rays have an Eflin rotation, Hello Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell again Aaron Civale most of this year. When they were ready to get Baz back on the curve, they threw Civale to the Brewers for a chance to call Baz.
Similar trades may make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but is not expected to be out much longer, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both assigned to back. So it's possible they could trade a pitcher or two and continue running in a healthy rotation. They have it Tyler Alexander again Jacob Lopez around as deep and then Shane McClanahan he should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from elbow surgery.
Most of the pitchers in Tampa's rotation mix are manageable for years, but Eflin and Littell are each scheduled for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a smart candidate for a budget-conscious team because of his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa through 2023, with that deal being reloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, jumping to $18MM the next year.
That is definitely reminiscent of the extension they signed the Rays with Tyler Glasnow. While still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays who were also heavily loaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and the year he was expected to come back from surgery. The Rays also got another year of control on him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.
He eventually returned in 2023 as expected, throwing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary came in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.
With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other options in the rotation, he could be on the move soon and should have plenty of suitors. He has been a master of the trade for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned contract. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that span is close to par but he has limited walks to a paltry 4.9% average.
Health has been a problem for Eflin, mainly due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings in 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but managed to stay on the mound in Tampa. He went 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he has already made 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had a short stop on the IL both years due to ground problems but kept the train on the road.
That kind of solid performance can have a lot of appeal and the teams on each list make sense as a place to stay. Atlanta is lost Spencer Strider in UCL surgery and saw Fried Max head of the recently injured list, and depth options such as Huascar Ynoa again Hurston Waldrep.
Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton again Spencer Schwellenbach, with various boys hanging around after the end. Strengthening that group with an outsider or two makes a lot of sense. The fries may be back but there are risks in the current design. Sale has a long injury history and the club may want to prevent him from getting injured again, although he remains fit this year. López was recently restored to his starting role after serving as an assistant for a few years and may run out of gas later in the year. Morton's gas tank may have an impact because he is now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been effective but has only nine career starts in the majors.
The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely attractive to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both free agents, and the latter may consider opting out at the end of the season. Strider will still be active until early 2025 so the rotation on next year's paper will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and other young guys can step up and fill that, but it's not a guarantee, so adding Eflin to the team would make sense.
The competitive balance cap may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, according to RosterResource statistics. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, not only will they receive the maximum tax cap but their top pick in next year's draft will be moved back 10 spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to live south of that line.
Eflin's CBT cap hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of a three-year, $40MM contract. However, the player's CBT score is recalculated upon sale. If the deal comes together in the next few days, he'll have about a third of this year's $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that's $21.67MM through the season and third quarter, making the CBT hit $16.3MM. If Atlanta gets him in the final two months of the season, they will put a third of that figure into their CBT calculation this year, or $5.43MM.
Assuming RR's stats are close to correcting, taking on Eflin's entire contract could be a problem for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and get Tampa to eat part of the deal. Next year's CBT hit is pretty low, currently at $185MM, but they will no doubt add to that over the course of the season.
The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier again José Urquidy both require Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia he has not returned from his TJS job since last year when Lance McCullers Jr. he is still trying to come back from his elbow procedure. Justin Verlander He came back from the shelf with a neck injury.
Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti again Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from a rough start to the season but Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss are each inexperienced. Blanco recently moved into the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are both rookies with ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.
Like Atlanta, Houston will pay CBT this year but they have more wiggle room. Houston's CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That's just shy of the second line's $257MM but a crossover that only comes with a small tax rate bump and no draft pick penalties.
The Cardinals have a strong front rotation that includes Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson again Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they became Andre Pallante he held fifth place recently. Pallante has a respectable 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but a poor 19.8% strikeout rate and a mediocre record overall.
Adding Eflin would strengthen that team this year and 2025. Both Gibson and Lynn have one-year deals and could become free agents this winter. Both have club options on their deals but there is no guarantee the Cardinals will pick either of them up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, CBT is not a major concern in St. RR currently cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base.
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