CJ Abrams is one of the rising stars in today's game. Entering Friday's game, the 23-year-old shortstop fresh off his All-Star debut is hitting .260/.333/.467 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, a 122 wRC+, a -.344 wOBA, and 1.9 WAR in 422 plate appearances. In the first month of his first season, I wrote about Abrams' best start. A nearly month-long slump followed, but he bounced back in late May and is showing signs that his offensive profile is here to stay.
Now in his third season, Abrams is proving that he can be a centerpiece for the Nationals. Apart from his bat, his aggressive running and speed make him one of the most powerful young players in the game. Last year, despite his inconsistency at the plate, Abrams was dangerous on the road. Because of his 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed (82nd percentile), according to Baseball Savant, he was worth +3 running the bases; he swiped 47 sacks and had a 9.2 BSR.
This year, Abrams was just as fast, but at least according to BsR, he's no longer a plus baserunner. (Baseball Savant says he's been worth +1 in baserunning this year, ranking 71st; he wasn't. 23 on last year's leaderboard.) That's because he's been caught stealing 10 times already, five of them coming on a pickoff, and one pickoff which did not come to the point of trying to steal.
In 2023, Abrams went 47-51 in steal attempts. If he left, the odds were in his favor. Pitchers didn't expose him by taking too big a lead or being overly aggressive. This year, his drop to 16-of-26 was impressive. When a player who just became a great base stealer falls into a slump like this, it takes some digging to understand what's really going on. There are several aspects of theft that we must pay attention to when trying to diagnose this type of problem: lead, escape, and situation. Let's examine each piece and find out where Abrams went wrong. Here is a collection of his picks this year:
None of this looks very good. He was off balance or out of bounds in almost every game. Some of this we can trace back to his footsteps, so let's start there. There are two main ways to lead if you are thinking about trying to steal a second time. You can take a regular lead of 12 feet like Abrams did against Sean Manaea and run the pitcher's first motion (as long as the pitcher lifts his leg). Or, you can take a larger, one-way cue to draw a higher pitch and feel the movement of the barrel.
For the first one, you want to stay close enough to the bag so the pitcher doesn't pick you off, but you want to go far enough away so you have a good chance of getting second coverage even if he throws. ; as soon as the pitcher lifts his leg, he breaks a second time. On a one-way lead, you're an extra step or two to second, but you're not trying to steal from the oncoming zone. Instead, you put all your weight on your left foot, going to first base, so you can dive back safely if the hole tries to get you out. If the pitcher doesn't throw, you time his delivery to get a better jump if you decide to steal later. That doesn't appear to be what Abrams was doing in the video above. All three of these hits by a lefty this season came before the count, two in the second plate game and one in the first pitch.
At 1-0 against Manaea, Abrams went 12 feet. He tried to continue with the first move but realized that he would be dead in the rights, so he hesitated to move. He should have continued to force Pete Alonso to make a play. This was the most obvious mental error of the three. Facing Kirby Snead and Alex Vesia, Abrams continued with the first move, but because each offensive lineman expected to move and was well prepared to throw the ball, the defender caught him easily. As a striker, you know that Abrams is an aggressive runner, but why in these two situations was it so easy? However, this is a good time to point out Abrams' tendencies.
8 of his 16 swipes this season have come on the first pitch, and of his six singles, four have been on the first pitch. If you're a raider looking to tame Abrams' wrath, do it early. For the rest, it is very easy to do because you are facing him as he leads first. This goes back to the aspect of the situation I brought up earlier. Pitchers are smart, and these are exactly the kinds of tidbits they know as they prepare for a good basestealer. Combine early stats with pitchers who are more than willing to throw up if they haven't used their assigned splits, and you have a tough road to success. A possible solution here is for Abrams to wait for deeper calculations before trying to steal.
The pitchers on the right in these clips are equally primed for Abrams to run early. He often uses vault lead against fairies. As a reminder, a vault lead is when you take your main lead about nine or 10 feet instead of 12. You take your same athletic stance and swing about 2-3 feet just as the pitcher lifts his leg. The boost from your vault helps you get into your sprint faster than you would with a traditional, dry lead, though there are risks. The key to a successful vault lead is not the size of your push; your time. If you step out too far before or after the shuffle, or you mistime your vault and are in the air when the pitcher comes out for the throw, you can be at risk of being ejected.
At times this season, Abrams has made both mistakes in his leads: His main lead or his shuffling is too big. Vault lead is more technical than physical, based more on mechanics than pure reflexes and speed. Abrams is quick enough and reacts quickly enough to steal bases with a traditional lead against favorable matchups, so if I were him, I would temporarily leave the leadoff vault and work on getting the basics down again before bringing it back into games.
Before I let you go, I also want to look at the games where Abrams had a catch to see if these catches were due to poor decisions, poor jumps, or poor defense. Here's a quick reel:
Besides the rip, there are three games that stick. If you're going to try to steal against Gabriel Moreno and Patrick Bailey — perhaps two of the best pitchers in the sport — you've got to pick your spots wisely. In the Arizona game, the Nationals were up by two runs and the count was 0-2, giving them a good opportunity to run and try to avoid a double play; Against the Giants, I think he wanted to get into scoring position with two outs. These are reasons enough to run despite the poor fit and do not compare to selection errors.
In the game against the Red Sox, righty Brayan Bello, who has a quick slide step, was on top. Even runners faster than Abrams can have trouble reaching second safely if a pitcher delivers a 96 mph heater in the middle of the pitch. And perhaps not surprisingly, this came in the first at-bat.
In the first game in the clip, against the Rockies, Abrams attempted a third swipe with a hit to left field. Even without seeing the level of leadership Abrams took, this was a bad decision. Dakota Hudson never took his eyes off Abrams before he delivered his pitch, making it very difficult for him to land a good pitch. In addition, catchers like it when this happens because with lefties they have a clear path to throw to third base; when righties hit, catchers have a more difficult game because they need to step back and get around the batter before firing. Even with the poor casting of Jacob Stallings, Abrams is canned.
Abrams is a fierce racer. Without his aggressiveness, he wouldn't be able to steal nearly 50 bases a season like he did last year. This is not something you want to take from him. However, he needs to learn from these mistakes so that he can use his speed and aggression effectively. Most of these shots and failed steals resulted in some predictable combinations and high jumps. The good news is that you are skilled enough to make the necessary changes. Once that happens, we'll see a more loaded version of the Abrams, which can swipe 40 bags at a high clip and fill the gaps with line drives.
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