The Red Sox added some depth to their rotation, getting a lefty James Paxton from the Dodgers in exchange for a minor leaguer Moises Bolivar, the teams announced on Friday. Boston passed the right hand Bryan Mata on the 60-day injured list to make room on the 40-man roster. WEEI's Rob Bradford reported yesterday that the Red Sox, who need to stabilize the rotation and hire Paxton through 2022-23, are expected to pursue him.
Paxton was a surprise DFA by the Dodgers. He made all 18 starts asked of him this season and posted a respectable, if unimpressive 4.43 earned run average. Those numbers are very similar to the 4.50 ERA he logged in the same sample of 96 frames with Boston last season, but the overall profile of the 35-year-old doesn't look strong.
After averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball with the Sox last season, Paxton is down to 93.2 mph in 2024. He saw his strikeout rate drop from 24.6% to 16.4%, and his walk rate increase from 8% to 12.3%. Paxton's average exit velocity also jumped a mile and a half per hour, from 89.3 mph with the Sox to 90.8 mph with Los Angeles. His strikeout rate has risen in a similar fashion, from 39.6% to 43.3%. He finished with a career-low .267 average on balls in play and a homer-to-flyball rate that was also significantly lower than his career mark.
Whether or not Paxton can back up his passing output with those numbers under the hood is unclear, but the Sox also don't need him to act as a front-of-the-rotation arm. Boston depth behind Tanner Houck, Cutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brian Bello again Cooper Criswell he's young, and several of those arms (Houck, Crawford, Criswell) are approaching or have established great new careers. Adding a stable backfield arm certainly catches the eye of a team in this situation — especially given Paxton's affordable contract.
Paxton signed a one-year contract with $7MM guaranteed and another $6MM in potential bonuses. However, $3MM of that guarantee came in the form of a signing bonus that has already been paid. And he's already unlocked all of the $6MM in incentives ($2MM for making the Opening Day roster and another $4MM based on the number of games he's started). As such, the Red Sox will only owe him a split portion of that $4MM cap between now and the end of the season (approximately $1.42MM).
That small amount dwarfs Boston's $180MM payroll. Their luxury tax ledger is pretty high, coming in at an estimated $218.1MM before this trade (via RosterResource). Paxton will push the Sox just shy of $220MM, leaving baseball's biggest Craig Breslow and his staff about $17MM of breathing room between their current number and the initial luxury tax threshold. Breslow & Co. there should be enough room to make other additions, even if ownership is reluctant to exceed that initial tax limit. Boston, in addition to looking for rotation depth, has been in the market for bullpen upgrades and a right-handed bat.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were involved in trade talks. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that the deal has been finalized. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe added details on the Dodgers' comeback.
More to come.
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