After a slow start to this year's trade deadline, one of the best pitchers available has a new team, with Zach Eflin leaving Tropicana Field for the land of Old Bay and Natty Boh. (That's Baltimore, for those of you unfamiliar with well-seasoned shellfish and/or nostalgic mass-market budget lager.) Returning to the Rays from the Orioles are three prospects, right-handed starter Jackson Baumeister, outfielder infielder Mac Horvath, and outfielder Matthew. Ezel. In his second season with the Rays, Eflin has a 4.09 ERA and 3.65 FIP over 19 starts, good for 1.8 WAR.
Entering the season, Baltimore's rotation depth was a concern. Acquiring Corbin Burnes in his walk year did a lot to alleviate the situation, and with the seventh-best ERA and 10th-best WAR in baseball, the rotation didn't really hinder the Orioles' desire to win their first World Series title since kindergarten. just silly. However, despite their good starting positions, the water is very volatile. Both Kyle Bradish and John Means had Tommy John surgery in June, and Tyler Wells is out for the season after undergoing internal brace surgery on his UCL in . Another irony is that Cole Irvin, a pleasant surprise early in the season, had a worse June than the Soviet Army in 1941. Cade Povich looked average in his debut and was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month, too. Chayce McDermott still has discipline issues to sort out. The team has good reason to expect more from these two in the future, but that future won't come this week, and the team needs more certainty in the rotation behind Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.
Don't confuse Eflin with Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet; he's not the type of pitcher who's likely to compete for the Cy Young. But the tough pitcher you can find is actually more important than the bad guy you can't find; The Tigers, by all reports, are asking for the entire franchise in return for Skubal, and Crochet's comments indicating they won't make it to the postseason without an extension make the acquisition a big deal for a team that doesn't offer nine-figure deals. Eflin is the number two guy, with an ERA and FIP between 3.50 and 4.00 in most seasons. He'll keep you accessible to many games and never pass the time where he's giving away more free passes than a failing comedy club. He's dealt with a lot of injuries the last few years, but he's been solid in 2023 and 2024, and that's something the O's value.
ZiPS projects a 3.62 ERA and 1.1 WAR from Eflin over the course of 56 innings, and the O's can be very happy with that in the long run. Perhaps most importantly, Eflin is signed through the 2025 season, and if the Orioles can't extend Burnes, having Eflin around could help ease any post-Burnes hangover. ZiPS projects a 3.76 ERA and 2.7 WAR from Eflin in 2025, a reasonable stat line for a player signed to de facto one year, $18 million contract.
By shopping at a big-box store rather than a fancy-pants restaurant, the O's avoided losing any opportunities from the pantheon. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice wrote about the O's prospects last month, ranking Baumeister 13th (40+ FV) and Horvath 25th (40 FV) in the program; Etzel did not make the list.
At the time, Eric and Travis had this to say about Baumeister:
Baumeister's 92-95 mph four-seamer consistently dominates hitters because of his ability to catch his fly and get through the zone. He doesn't get it precisely, but he has a feeling of raising it often, which is good considering its lifespan. His curveball is a 12-to-6 downer with significant depth that meshes well with his high four-seamers out of hand. Baumeister's slide will show several different scenarios. Some have a very low slanted slightly horizontal shape, while others have a deep, slurvey shape. There's also some fade variation in the mix that he throws with good arm speed, with his best showing the depth that goes along with the horizontal action. Right now, Baumeister relies heavily on hitters who increase their zone against his secondary offerings and will need to improve his consistency against more advanced hitters. This is an interesting arm that claims to grind around the edges, but it doesn't. 4 start looks up if he can overcome or improve his below average command.
And this to say about Horvath:
His performance in High-A so far in 2024 has been slightly above league average. Horvath strikes with an open, high-handed setup, and uses a shortened leg kick that brings him square; he uses his legs well in all his passes. He has very quick and powerful hands that produce above average pulling power. Horvath is ready to pull, but so far his bat is fast enough to make this hitting style work. Horvath's high bat technique is geared toward catching pitches in the lower half of the zone but is vulnerable to anything high. We disagree about Horvath's defense. Eric thought that his going to the college field was the most permanent and best thing. Travis thinks his lateral width and above-average arm strength make the hot corner his best position, while he's also a pass defender at second base and right field. Horvath's hitting tool will be too light to be considered every day, but he'll be able to fill a bench role if he proves to be a versatile defender.
I asked Eric if he had any updates, and he indicated that he has little hope that Baumeister is a starter, that he thinks Horvath plays enough defense to blow him to 40+ FV, and that he still sees Etzel as a pass rusher. -Mill depth outfielder.
ZiPS sees no particular reason to disagree. The computer has Baumeister emerging as a 90-95 ERA+ starter down the road, averaging close to 1 MPI on the season and walking very few hitters. The only other player in his top 10 that I've seen off hand is Josias Manzanillo, a journeyman reliever since the turn of the century. ZiPS projects a .223/.288/.374 (84 wRC+) line for Horvath if he plays in the majors in 2025 (probably not), with a triple-slash season high of .246/.313/ .418. Granted, that's tough for someone who can credibly play second and third base, as well as the outfield, and the Rays often have a guy or two like that, so I wouldn't be surprised if Horvath gets some playing time. big ones down the road.
ZiPS is more bullish on Etzel than Eric and Travis, but only slightly. Projections actually have him as a decent outfielder, projecting a .242/.309/.344 line in 2025 and a .247/.318/.362 max, but ZiPS also has him as a middle infielder. , which limits his utility as even this sunny look doesn't leave him as a stopgap starter. Etzel's top ZiPS is another Ray, Mallex Smith, who had a brief matchup.
Did the Rays make a big deal on Eflin? No, but I also think that's the reality of the market these days. Even though teams are yet to trade their socks off, they value their prospects more dimly than at any time in major league history. As seen here and in the Randy Arozarena trade, regular, “proven” players will often be acquired in surprisingly light packages. For the Orioles, the benefit of acquiring Eflin is obvious. They probably took the workhorse no. 2 they needed, and the team looks better in 2024 and 2025 because of it. Moreover, they did not give up any hopes that it might come back to haunt them.
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