Dodgers Bring James Paxton Back to Normal

In short, you can never have too much pitching, but managing 26- and 40-man rosters means dealing with practical rather than theoretical limitations. Last Monday, in the middle of a week when they would have had to call up one starting pitcher and use two others on the injured list, the Dodgers designated James Paxton for assignment. On Friday, they dealt the 35-year-old Red Sox — the team he played for last season, and had Tommy John surgery the year before — in exchange for 17-year-old Venezuelan outfielder Moises Bolivar. native playing in the Dominican Summer League.

Chasing so many injuries throughout his 11 years in the big leagues that he never topped 29 or qualified for the ERA title, Paxton was at least healthy enough to stay in the swing for the rest of the season; His 18 innings pitched and 89.1 innings pitched both rank third on the Dodgers. He's done a solid job in Los Angeles at times, but returns have slowed in recent weeks. After allowing just two runs in an 18-inning span from June 11-24 — lowering his ERA to 3.39, despite a 4.78 FIP — Paxton was rocked for nine runs and 12 hits. in four innings against the Giants on June 30, starting a 17.2-inning, 17-run spiral that included 12 walks and three homers over his last four starts in blue. In that run, he finished his tenure with the Dodgers with a 4.43 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.84 xERA, and 0.3 WAR.

Interestingly, Paxton's last start was against the Red Sox in Los Angeles last Sunday. In five innings, Paxton walked four and allowed four hits and three runs while striking out seven. As it was his 18th start of the season, it meant he earned a $7 million increase in his one-year deal on top of his $4 million base salary and $3 million signing bonus; earn $2 million for making the Opening Day roster, $1 million for being on the roster by April 15, $600,000 each for reaching 6-, 8-, 10-, 12-, and 16-start milestones, then $1 million of the 18th. So the Red Sox only paid a split portion of his base salary, about $1.4 million.

The Dodgers gave Paxton nearly two-thirds of a season to show them what he could do, and understandably, the team realized they could do better. The DFA move coincided with the call-up of righty River Ryan, 25, their top prospect, to make his major league debut. Ryan filled the rotation spot where the Dodgers had just used Brent Honeywell, who they had selected off waivers from the Pirates the day before, and before that Bobby Miller, who struggled in his four games after coming off the injured list. optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City (not going well there either).

At the time the Dodgers' rotation wasn't what the team envisioned pitching in the playoffs, but over the course of the week, a strong unit began to take shape. On Wednesday, the team started Tyler Glasnow, who had been sidelined for 18 days due to back strain but still leads the team with 19 starts and 114 innings. On Thursday, they turned on Clayton Kershaw, who was slated to play this season after undergoing surgery in November to repair the glenohumeral ligament and capsule of his left shoulder. Meanwhile, Ryan, Glasnow, and Kershaw are joined by rookies Justin Wrobleski and Gavin Stone, the latter of whom has been the savior of the staff with his 3.34 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 107.2 innings, the second highest on the team. Between Stone, Yamamoto, Wrobleski, Ryan, newly drafted Landon Knack, and the now-injured Kyle Hurt, the team's 47 starts by rookies are second in the majors behind the Giants.

The Dodgers hope that at some point Miller, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto can rejoin the starting five. Miller's struggles followed a nearly 10-week absence due to right shoulder inflammation; on the heels of an impressive rookie season, he owns an 8.07 ERA and 6.28 FIP in 29 innings. Buehler, who was slow in his comeback from his second Tommy John surgery, returned to the majors on May 6 and made eight starts with a 5.84 ERA and 6.04 FIP before being placed on the injured list with right hip inflammation; he recently started a rehabilitation assignment in Oklahoma City. Yamamoto, the team's second-largest free agent addition last winter, went on the injured list with what was initially reported to be a strained triceps after pitching just two innings in his start on June 15. He was transferred to the IL for 60 days after suffering a rotator cuff strain. cuff strain, he will be eligible to return in mid-August.

It's telling that amid so much uncertainty — recent injuries, limited returns, and comparable inexperience — the Dodgers decided Paxton had to be the odd man out. But even beyond his unfavorable numbers, there was cause for concern. After pitching six innings from 2020-22 due to a flexor strain and Tommy John surgery, he made 19 starts spanning 96 innings in Boston last year, posting a 4.50 ERA and 4.68 FIP; he had a 3.34 ERA and 4.08 FIP before his last three starts, but right knee inflammation contributed to an abbreviated appearance before his season ended in early September. At least he was fooling the batters, but this year, not so much:

Wow. Per Statcast, Paxton's rates are slower than most of his best contributions. For his seamers, it dropped from 21.7% to 14.6%, for his changeup it went from 46.7% to 31.8%, and for his cutter it went from 33.1% to 13%. He's largely mothballed that last pitch in favor of his knuckle curve, his most efficient offering and still has a 35.4% strikeout rate, down slightly from last year's 37.6%. Correspondingly, he lost two miles per hour from his four-seamer (from 95.2 to 93.2) and two ticks on his cutter and changeup. One look at the pitch-modeling stats, and you'd be forgiven for thinking he's got nothing left:

The Red Sox, who recently scouted Paxton, have to believe they can fix him, and given the success pitching coach Andrew Bailey has had in his first season with the team, they would be right. Under Bailey and new pitching director Justin Willard, the Red Sox starters finished the first half ranked fifth in the American League in ERA (3.63) and fourth in FIP (3.78), but since the All-Star break , they are in 14th place. the former (5.95) and died at the latter end (5.91).

Bryan Bello has been the weak link overall, with a 5.27 ERA and 4.56 FIP, and both Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta have had declining performances after strong opening months, with Crawford posting a 4.38 ERA and 5.26 FIP from the beginning of May, and Pivetta. a 5.05 ERA and 4.02 FIP during the same period. For now, though, it appears that righty Cooper Criswell will be moved to the bullpen and used in “increasing positions and long relief,” according to manager Alex Cora. At the very least, Paxton — who will start Tuesday against the Mariners — gives the Red Sox a left-handed presence in the rotation that would be good for a few changes to reliever Brennan Bernardino's length. The bull has been on a rampage lately; in their seven games from July 19-26, they hit in the seventh inning or later six times, and understandably, baseball executive Craig Breslow is on the hunt for more.

Said Breslow of Paxton's addition:

“[Paxton is a] a guy with a proven track record in this club and division [who is] left handed. [He] checked a lot of boxes… We didn't want to leave the deadline without adding the first pitcher. So, I'm glad we did that, especially at this point, but we'll keep looking. “

As for Bolivar, the Red Sox signed him to Palo Negro in January with a $25,000 bonus. Listed at six feet and 175 pounds, he turned 17 on July 8. He hit .270/.364/.423 with three homers in 136 PA for the Red Sox Blue team in the DSL while playing third base, where he 10 errors in 23 games. In accordance with the above Boston Globe one evaluator “admired his high level of communication and his ability to hit the ball with authority.” Here's how Eric Longenhagen described Bolivar, who has moved to the Dodgers Mega team in the DSL:

Moises Bolivar is a power hitter from the DSL who needs to work on his throwing accuracy and plate alignment. He can be physical and still has decent power and barrel feel, but as a consistent third baseman (who needs work there), he'll have to profile, and his swing and catch needs polishing if he's going to do it. He's the type of prospect who would normally be listed at the very bottom of our list as a respected player.

With two days left before the deadline, this likely isn't the final move for the Red Sox or the Dodgers, both of whom are still looking for upgrades on both ends of their pitching staff. The Dodgers, in particular, are still looking to add an “impact-type arm” according to general manager Brandon Gomes, with Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and Jack Flaherty among the reported targets. We will find out who they are coming soon.