The Astros are paying to get one of the best pitchers on the market. Houston and Toronto announced a trade Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros rookie righty Jake Blossoutfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido and the league's youngest player Is Wagner. Toronto already has enough 40-man roster space to handle this move.
Kikuchi is behind Jack Flaherty arguably the second best rental startup on the market. Houston is tied for Flaherty and controllable pitchers like Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde again Zach Eflin last week. There was never much doubt that the Astros would land a starter, as general manager Dana Brown has not been shy about the team's need for a swing arm. Flaherty's asking price always seemed like it might be beyond Houston's comfort zone, making Kikuchi the logical return.
The 33-year-old Kikuchi has had mixed results this season and throughout his career more broadly. Over 115 2/3 innings this year, he owns a 4.75 ERA to match his 4.72 mark over six MLB campaigns. Kikuchi's strikeout and walk profile is even more impressive than this strikeout stat suggests. He struck out 26.2% of the batters while walking only 6% of the batters he faced. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, Kikuchi ranks 19th in slugging percentage and 16th in strikeout/walk ratio. He has a strikeout rate of 12.4% which puts him in the top 30 in that group.
A .340 average on balls in play and a 70.6% strikeout percentage however pushed his ERA closer to 5.00. Those marks were close to the league average in 2023, when the Japanese southpaw turned in a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts with the same strikeout and walk rates as he posted this season. Houston is betting on a positive return to those consecutive and nailed football results.
Teams have long been interested in Kikuchi, who boasts some of the best raw material of any lefty in baseball. His fastball sits north of 95 MPH and he has the ability to miss bats with all four of his offerings (four-seam, curveball, slider, changeup). Kikuchi has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park throughout his MLB career, however. He's allowing homers at a career-high 1.32 per nine clip this season and has given up more long balls than the average hitter in his entire major league season. Right-handed hitters have generally given him trouble, though he's holding them to a more manageable .280/.323/.441 slash in 409 plate appearances this year.
While Kikuchi isn't without flaws, he's a plug-and-play option in a Houston rotation that really needed it. The Astros have been hit hard by starting injuries all year. They lost Cristian Javier again José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery. Deep launcher JP France He went down with a season-ending shoulder issue. Justin Verlander he still has two hamstring injuries and has been on the shelf since mid-June due to neck pain. Lance McCullers Jr. has hit constant snags in his bid to come back from flexor tendon surgery. They had to slow down Luis Garcia in his career after Tommy John surgery, although he is again throwing bullpen sessions after being waived in the league's rehab contest earlier this month.
Framber Valdez leads the rotation and has a 3.43 ERA over 18 starts. Hunter Brown it rebounded in a disastrous April and bounced like a high-profile arm three months ago. Ronel Blanco he has been a godsend after an injury pushed him to the fifth starting quarter out of camp. He owns a 2.95 ERA in 119 frames.
While that's a respectable top three, the depth is questionable. Spencer Arrighetti he has a 5.58 ERA over his 19 MLB starts. Houston had pushed Bloss to the majors within a year of drafting him, further demonstrating their lack of alternatives in the minors. The Astros hope to get Verlander and Garcia (and possibly McCullers) back at some point, but they also push Blanco to higher workloads. The 30-year-old righty had never thrown more than 88 innings in a major or minor league campaign before this year. He already has 31 more innings.
Kikuchi, who hasn't missed a start in two years, has provided the kind of resilience the Astros have often lacked. There's an injury risk with any pitcher, but there's no question the Astros are thrilled to have a pitcher tied for fifth in MLB in starts back from last year's opening day.
Doing so comes at a cost. Bloss is arguably one of the top prospects in Houston's farm system. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last summer, the 6’3″ righty quickly worked his way up the prospect pipeline. Baseball America recently ranked him #2 in the organization, while he is in the Top 100 overall (and second in the organization) on FanGraphs.
BA suggests he might fit in the back of the rotation, while FanGraphs gives him mid-rotation potential. Both outlets write that his mid-90s fastball plays best at the top of the strike zone because of its backspin and Bloss's low release length. He has two breaking pitches, while his changeup is a work in progress.
Opponents hit him hard in his first three league starts. He gave up nine runs on 16 hits (including five homers) over 11 2/3 innings. If it wasn't for Houston's injury, he probably wouldn't have made his MLB debut. Bloss has pitched very well in the minors this season, working to a 1.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate in 66 innings. However he made all 8 starts in Double-A and one Triple-A appearance before being pushed to the majors due to need. The most common development path is probably still in Double-A right now.
Bloss has all three options left. The 23-year-old is under control for at least six more seasons than this one and could last longer if the Jays send him to the minors to develop. Bloss could be a part of next year's rotation as the Jays try to quickly get back into contention, perhaps filling the rotation spot left by Kikuchi.
Acquiring Bloss alone would have been a solid return for half a season of Kikuchi's services. Loperfido, 25, was ranked as Houston's #5 prospect in the latest BA update. A seventh-round pick out of Duke in 2021, he reached the majors earlier this year. Loperfido combined for a .278/.370/.510 slash across three minor league levels last season. He was hitting Triple-A early this season and is hitting .272/.365/.568 with 13 homers over 39 games in the Pacific Coast League this year.
Of course, PCL is a very good place for batsmen. The BA evaluation report indicates that Loperfido has an above average potency but not a high potency. He was striking out at a high 28% clip against Triple-A shortstops. The whiffs continued on his first look at the MLB arms. Loperfido has pitched 36.4% of his 118 MLB games thus far. He is hitting .236/.299/.358 in 38 games.
Loperfido is not a good athlete or defensive player. He was named second baseman but left this position for the rest of the year. Houston split his time between the outfield and first base in Triple-A. They haven't given him any major league starts at first base, which is surprising considering the limited production they've gotten out of the position. Jon Singleton and those issued since then José Abreu.
Wagner is the third piece in the deal, but he is the hope himself. The seven-year-old son of All-Star Billy Wagner, Will is ranked 19th in the Houston program by Baseball America. A former 18th round pick out of the Liberty, Wagner has outperformed his draft stock and is posting big numbers in Triple-A. He is hitting .307/.424/.429 with a whopping 16.2% walk percentage against a measly 10.2% strikeout rate in 324 plate appearances.
Left-handed batsman Wagner is old at the level – today is his 26th birthday – but he has little to prove to the youngsters. He split his time between first, second and third base this year. He could be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if he is not selected on the 40-man roster but could be considered in Toronto before the end of the season.
Those are three players who are manageable at or near the MLB level. The Astros did well to give it up while in a tight battle with the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West crown. Despite the prospects, they add salary to what is already a franchise-high payroll. The Astros had an estimated competitive balance sheet of approximately $256MM before the deal (as calculated by RosterResource). Unless there are monetary considerations involved, they will take about $3.33MM of Kikuchi's $10MM salary. That pushes them past the $257MM threshold that marks the second phase of the luxury penalty. They are taxed at a rate of 32% on spending up to $277MM, so they will pay about $1MM in tax on top of the money they owe Kikuchi.
Toronto is taking money out of its tax book – more than the Astros are doing. Kikuchi's three-year, $36MM free agent contract was front-loaded to pay him $16MM in the first season. The competition for Toronto's balance sheet however was an average annual contract value of $12MM, so Kikuchi had a much higher CBT than actual salary this year.
If a player on a guaranteed contract is traded, the CBT ledger is recalculated based on the salary remaining at the time of the trade. The Astros picked up a $10MM salary cap while the Jays took a $12MM cap hit that Kikuchi had on their books – about $4MM. That could help them try to slip under the $237MM base cap this year. Their direct CBT number is still waiting for the amount of money they deposited into Justin Turner trade with Seattle this afternoon.
Jim Bowden of The Athletic first reported that the Astros were closing in on a deal for Kikuchi that would send Bloss to Toronto. ESPN's Jeff Passan confirmed a trade for Kikuchi. Ken Rosenthal, Kaitlyn McGrath and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Jays are getting two more prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported that Loperfido and Wagner were in agreement.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Source link
