The AL West Race Is Wide Open

On June 17th, I wrote about the Mariners' consistent success at overachieving in their division and winning close games. The next day, they won their fourth game in a row, improving their record to 44-31 and their division win probability at 86.3%. Sitting 10 games ahead of the second-place Astros, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seattle would claim the division crown. But six weeks later, the landscape looks very different. The Mariners blew that 10-game lead in just 24 games, the fastest any team has ever surrendered a major league lead, and the Astros even pulled ahead a little. The Mariners are now back in first place, but only one game separates the two clubs.

The Mariners have gone 15-23 since their June 18 win that tied their division lead (12-23 if you exclude the White Sox, who are currently riding a 20-game losing streak). Some of these declines were expected – in particular, an offense that seemed to always get timely hits stopped doing so. Seattle's .388 BABIP in elite situations has dropped to .225 over the past six weeks, and as small lucky samples turn to small unlucky samples, the team's run has cratered. The Mariners have seen a slight improvement in the low- and middle-order situations as a result of their recent offensive outburst — they've scored 6.3 runs per game in their nine games since acquiring outfielder Randy Arozarena — but it's not enough to be fully effective. the ship. Their 94 wRC+ over their cold stretch and 95 wRC+ overall rank among the breakout hopefuls.

Recent injuries have taken a toll on Seattle's already struggling roster. In the span of a few days, top starters Julio Rodríguez and JP Crawford hit the IL, Rodríguez broke his ankle and Crawford broke his pinky. At the time of the injury, these two combined for 39% of the position player's total WAR. Closing starters Victor Robles and Dylan Moore have performed well in their absences, but they are not expected to continue through the rest of the season.

Playing Robles and Moore every day thinned Seattle's depth, forcing the team to use 26-year-old rookie Leo Rivas and up/down Jason Vosler off the bench. The two have combined for a 50 wRC+ this season, and as a result, the Mariners have entered high-stakes, high-scoring situations. That might not seem like a big deal, but for an offense that lives and dies on the edge, getting more off the bench is very important. Mariners pinch-hitters have two hits in their last 26 at-bats and are striking out 45% of the time.

The final part of Seattle's recent struggles has been its bullpen, which has been strong in the first few months. Mariners relievers have been bitten by the walk and home run bug as of late. Their three big guys (Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, and the since-traded Ryne Stanek) have ERAs and FIPs north of fifth over the past six weeks, with only Andrés Muñoz reliably pitching in top situations. Austin Voth, surprisingly solid in the first half, has been elevated to the setup job but has struggled to defend close passes; has the worst WPA on the team during their swing.

While the Mariners were frustrated, the Astros took advantage. Their AL-best 24-14 record since June 18 has moved them from an underdog to a winner, and their 43.7% chance to win the division is a few points lower than Seattle's. Houston isn't overpowered in any statistical category, but it gets above-average production up and down the lineup.

The Astros' most important contributor as of late has been Yordan Alvarez, who has largely recovered from a slow start by his standards. He had a 122 wRC+ at the end of May, but since the start of June, he's slashing .335/.427/.631 with 11 home runs and a 190 wRC+, which is the fourth-best mark in baseball during that time, behind Aaron Judge (249), Juan Soto (204), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr (193). Alvarez's heater has filled in for Kyle Tucker's long absence with a head injury.

Houston's entire offense was struggling, too. Yainer Diaz turned in his season with a .357 average as his team struggled; his very high rushing profile, relies on a high BABIP, which he was able to get later by hitting more line drives. At the same time, the infield trio of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Peña has been above average, bolstering an offense that struggled early in the season due to a lack of depth.

On the other hand, both Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are having their best times of the season. Brown is finding success mainly because he is allowing fewer home runs, and Valdez has made some tangible changes to his pitch mix. After experimenting with the dip method in the kitchen last year, Valdez simplified his arsenal in 2024. He relies heavily on his curveball, and understandably so. He has thrown 35% curves in his seven starts, and opponents are hitting .093 and running at a 40.4% whiff rate. In that seven-start span, starting with a seven-inning, one-run, seven-strikeout shutout against the Orioles on June 23, Valdez is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA; the Astros won each of those seven games.

The Astros should also be happy with what they saw in the trade deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi, who they paid the highest price for Friday night. In his Houston debut, Kikuchi struck out 11 batters in 5 2/3 innings in Houston's 3-2 win over the Rays, with his lone hit coming on a two-run homer. he allowed two outs to Rays freshman Dylan Carlson, the second batter Kikuchi faced. Yes, this was just one start, but the outing gave us reason to believe the Astros may have turned something on with Kikuchi: He almost completely shut down his curveball, which was his second most used with the Blue Jays, in favor of something else. changes. At first glance, this sound doesn't look impressive, with less drop than other comparable offerings, but it works well for him because it drops more than his fastball. In Kikuchi's Astros debut, his changeup had a 44% swinging strikeout rate and a 79% whiff rate.

The Mariners are always the underdogs to win the division, but the two teams have the same projected postseason record: 85-77. With this low win that could carry the division, the door is open for the third-place Rangers if they can make a run to get back into the race. Sitting 5.5 games back in the West, a lot has to go right for them to be able to compete in a season that has, so far, been abysmal.

The Rangers currently have almost half a rotation of starters on the injured list. Tyler Mahle is expected to come off the IL to start Tuesday against the Astros, but the pending returns of the other three starters on the shelf — Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Jacob deGrom — are still pending. Last week, Scherzer returned to IL with shoulder fatigue after missing the first 87 days of the season recovering from offseason surgery, and he has yet to return. Gray is expected to miss about a month after being put on IL last week with a groin strain. deGrom, meanwhile, has yet to begin rehab as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, and it's uncertain if he'll be ready to run before the end of the season.

The Depth Charts currently project the quartet to combine for 125 innings of 3.96 ERA ball by the end of the regular season, but if these four pitchers exceed their projections, they could make this a three-way race. For example, if the quartet combined for a 3.50 ERA instead of a 3.96, Texas' projected differential for the rest of the season would exceed that of the Mariners. There are also signs of health from the offense, the whole heart of the list is expected to beat better continuously. To be clear, the Rangers division title is still a long game, but there is a world where bad luck breaks and everything goes their way in the last two months. At the very least, they should be able to stay close enough to the stand to make things interesting.