The smooth, left-handed stroke has aged like fine wine through baseball history. Ben Rice is one of the latest examples of a left-handed batsman whose swing alone makes him a joy to watch. Coming through the Yankees' system as a bat-first catcher, Rice's minor league explosion last year forced his name into the big league conversation when first baseman Anthony Rizzo landed on the injured list with a broken arm.
Even before Rizzo went down, Rice was mixing in a lot of time at first in Triple-A this season. This is where the need of the organization was, and his skills were not suitable for long in participation. As you'd expect, his defense in his new position has been a work in progress, and the same is true throughout his game. At the plate, Rice is going through the same ups and downs that most rookies do: Pitchers are figuring out how to attack him, and he's learning to make adjustments at the big league level.
With a 102 wRC+ over 142 plate appearances, Rice has been a threat thus far, but much of that is due to his hot play to match his call-ups. Through his first 19 games, he slashed .267/.348/.567 with five home runs, including three against the Red Sox on July 6, and a 154 wRC+ over 69 plate appearances. During his 18 games (73 PA) since then, he is hitting .143/.247/.283 with two homers and a 53 wRC+. Despite that recent skid, ZiPS still believes in Rice, giving him a projected 110 wRC+ for the rest of the season. No projection comes without uncertainty, of course, but there's a reason why ZiPS — and other projection programs — are confident that the under-the-radar prospect can continue to be above average at the plate. Let's get into it.
As of 2023, Rice was 24 years old in A ball. Despite good offensive play in 2021 and '22, he wasn't the type of player many expected to climb four levels over the course of a year, yet that's exactly what he did. With exceptional aggression and the ability to create natural elevation in his swing, Rice dominated minor league pitching from the time the 2023 season began when he received a major league call-up in June. Minor league performance is a key reason for his strong projection. He walked a lot, didn't strike out a lot, and hit for power. Even without the general gaudy production, the bones of that continued during his seven weeks in the big leagues.
His SEAGER 84th percentile is good for any hitter, let alone a rookie. He attacks hittable pitches at a high clip and has a good sense of strike zone, chasing less than 20% of the time. While his numbers in the minors suggested his swing decisions were above average, this performance in his first piece of playing time underscored that he can handle it at this level.
As he has struggled over the past 18 games, he is still taking his walks (12.3%) and his plate performance is still solid. It's a great skill to go back through ruts like this. Breakdowns will happen, but swing decisions and plate direction are basic pieces that can help hitters get out of bad spots. Before we delve into Rice's struggles and potential weaknesses, let's point out another piece that complements his best swing decisions: his swing.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this piece, Rice's swing has its own look. Low effort, but still good enough to produce a pull side lift. It is steep, but has enough adjustability to not be dominated by high heat. We're still dealing with a small sample here, but Rice has shown good signs in the top third of the strikeout despite his .279 wOBA up there. He doesn't rush over his hands often and can't even get upfield enough to drive them. Here are some changes that have different effects:
The first thing I hear is Rice's foundation. In all these berries, a blow or a barrel, his feet are secured on the ground. A stable foundation is the first step to having an adjustable swing. To create pull side lift on pitches in different parts of the strike zone, your feet must be secure enough to give your upper body a chance to adjust. In the whiffs, it looks like Rice is too late to get his feet on the ground, causing him to hover over his back hip and fail to get his bat in the right path for contact. That will be something to watch out for going forward as pitchers look to change his eye level and force him to cover both the top and bottom of the zone.
But like I said, when Rice's feet are cemented to the ground, he's in a good position to create a heavy lift. With 88 batted balls, Rice is averaging about a 40% sweet spot. As a reminder, that number is the percentage of batted balls that are hit between eight and 32 degrees. It's your best chance to hit the barrels. Because of this, Rice's communication skills have been outstanding thus far; both his .463 xwOBACON rate and 19.3% slugging percentage would be among the league leaders if he is a qualified hitter. Basically, when Rice connected with him, the results were good. That combined with his exceptional aggressiveness and reluctance to leave the strike zone led to a .375 xwOBA. That's a big gap from where his .310 wOBA sits, but remember, this is still a small sample and the gap isn't due to bad luck alone. Rice has really struggled against the slow stuff so far.
Against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, Rice hit .171 and .125, respectively. The expected numbers don't look bad (.385 xwOBA and .296 xwOBA) but his performance against righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls is concerning. On a league-wide basis, left-handed hitters average a .270 wOBA and a 29.7% whiff rate against right-handed offspeed pitches. Rice's wOBA sits at .250 and his strikeout rate is very high (40.5%). With left-to-left sliders, whiffs haven't been too bad in a small sample (21.4%), but he hasn't managed any good contact against them (.080 wOBA).
From a pitching perspective, right-handed changeups or splitters and left-handed breaking balls are ideal for making left-handed batters ineffective. They are the best places to remove Rice from the heater. If he doesn't learn to improve against these pitches he will probably struggle in the big leagues. I know, it's so easy! Let's look at some of the changes to see what's going on:
So the big question here: Can Rice be adjusted enough to stop swinging over these areas? In the first clip, he showed the ability to rebound and connect on a down shift, and in the fourth, he abused the breaking ball. But those are just two examples. Against these combinations of pitch-handedness, Rice's results left much to be desired. He is in an adjustment period where the pitchers are daring him to prove that he can swing and learn a different speed in the area.
Despite not playing well, I don't think Rice's swing has looked that bad after watching all the contests he has played against these pitches this year. The batting inspection isn't all it seems, but it's a good sign to see batsmen staying balanced when swinging instead of being completely fooled.
When you think about Rice's above-average swing decisions and the fact that it hasn't been seen to be relevant, I'm actually interested in his potential improvement against these areas. In addition, the Yankees have begun to protect him a little against lefties and good breaking balls. In the last two weeks, DJ LeMahieu started first with Rice against Christopher Sánchez, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana. Rice still has opportunities to face left-handed relievers from time to time, but manager Aaron Boone appears to be trying to prevent the small hitter from being featured in tough matchups.
As for the rest of the season, I'm confident that Rice can top 110 ZiPS if he continues on his path and continues to cause the kind of damage he has on his batted balls. There are holes in his profile, but his power is compelling and should be enough to stop his offensive performance, especially against right-handed pitching.
When Rice was in his prime, it was easy to envision him becoming the Yankees' first baseman for years to come. But in reality, he is unlikely to become a superstar slugger. Instead, the odds are in his favor to be 10-15% better than the average hitter. And in a lineup that already has high offensive production, that's all the Yankees need from him. As he works through his struggles, it will be important to see some sort of adjustment, either physical or mental, against righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls. However, there is no denying that a hitter with a good ability to pull the ball in the air is someone who can stick in the big leagues and is successful at the plate.
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