In early April, an article titled “Astros Pitching Prospect Spencer Arrighetti Is All in With Analytics” debuted here on FanGraphs, and given what the 24-year-old right-hander had to say, the headline was completely accurate. In an interview that took place during spring training, Arrighetti showed little knowledge of his pitch metrics while comfortably talking about topics like modified seam rise and vertical pitch angle. He presented himself as a wise and cautious person.
Four months into his rookie season — he made his major league debut against Houston on April 10 — Arrighetti is a game changer. The emergence of his MO has come amid an up-and-down campaign that is currently at its peak. In his last two starts, the 2021 sixth-round pick from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette has allowed just three runs while striking out 25 batters in 13 innings. On the year, he has a 5.14 ERA, 4.18 FIP, and a 27.9% strikeout rate in 105 innings.
Arrighetti explained how his approach has changed and why when we sat down for a chat at Fenway Park this past weekend. My first question received an extended, five-minute answer, after which we shared a few more exchanges.
———
David Laurila: What has changed since we talked in spring training?
Spencer Arrighetti: “I have a much better idea now. When we were talking in Lakeland, I was talking with three major league coaching games under my belt. This is a very different game than I thought at the time. The conversation we had, as good as it was, left out a big part of what the modern age is all about. Obviously, conditions and speed are really important. Arsenal's design is really important. There are people who believe that those are the basics, but after my time here, I'm not sure that chasing situations is the way to go.
“I'm talking about playing in the big league. Other than that, I would agree that the composition is very dominant. If you can throw something really bad, and really hard, you will succeed. But everyone throws something really hard and really bad at this level. So my perspective has changed to not just relying on Stuff+ numbers, but rather considering the fact that, at the end of the day, it's all about pitching. You can be manipulative and bad, and that's better than just being bad. I think the art of deception is kind of what you lose when you're chasing a set shape, a set velo, or whatever you're training for.
“I think that approach has helped me realize that I can run well in the big league, but from the conversations I've had with other starting pitchers in our team, as well as some experts of the game, I firmly believe there is more to it. Manipulating and… tunneling, I guess, is a word I avoid while trying to define it. I think tunnel is a bad word. But I think when you tend to convince the hitter that you're throwing a fastball, and it's not a fastball, that's how success happens. That brings into the discussion a completely different set of data. It is very much based on your release window. Like, do all your posts come out of one window? Do they all present the same way in spin orientation?
“Is it [your pitches] canceling it because the spin orientations are different? Are you using your slot to try to find something to move more, or not necessarily? I think I was doing a lot of that without really realizing it. The more I tried to adjust my game to executing the delivery due to the use of positions, instead of trying to create impressive situations, the more success I found. Instead of getting bogged down in what my stuff is doing, I see what the hitters are doing in terms of pitch to pitch to pitch, and the damage in a certain area.
“I still like numbers. I really do. I'm a geek about it, but I shifted my focus from some of the actual pitch shape numbers and moved on to how to take my problems. I look at the tendencies of certain hitters in this area, at this position, and at this height, and I commit to making shape secondary and execution primary. I feel like doing that separates the good pitchers from the great pitchers in this division.
“So, I liked the conversation we had in Lakeland. I just think my way out has changed. I was a firm believer in the Matt Brash and Griffin Jax approach, that you can throw it down the middle a little bit because it's that bad and that hard. It works for those guys really, really well, as we've seen. But I am not that person at this level. I've found a lot of success when I don't worry about situations as much as I worry about where I'm throwing my pitches, and what I'm doing with them in terms of usage, and who I am. I throw them.”
Laurila: Basically, throwing more at the weaknesses of the hitters and not just trying to beat them with your strength?
Arrighetti: “Yes. The details tell the whole story, and that includes the way out if you're looking for the right things. For example, if a hitter's OPS – or maybe his slugging – is X in this zone, in this zone, I'll take my chances there. I'll throw it in when I know they know they're messing around. The worst thing that can happen is that they take a strange turn. That's a lot easier for me to rest my case than to go out there and decide, 'This is my worst pitch, so I'm going to spam it somewhere,' and drop a homer or two.
“I think I've done it three times now. I decided, 'This is my best pitch for a right-handed hitter and I'm going to throw it out here knowing that you probably hit it, but I think mine is better.' But even if mine is better, that doesn't mean I'm getting the result I want. What really comes to mind is my outing against the Chicago White Sox. I hung a slide on it [Luis Robert Jr.] and hit a run-scoring double down the line. I thought that because it sweeps, and because it moves X amount and is this hard, I'll be fine. The truth is that it wasn't the right tone. That man hits in-zone sliders well. There were probably four other pitches in my arsenal that would have served me better at the time, or some of them probably didn't have the outstanding Stuff+ range, which we often believe is the key to a pitcher's success.
“Also there is a place where you can throw it away because your things are good. There are guys like Mason Miller and Paul Skenes who throw so hard, and throw things so bad, that it doesn't really matter. But even with the velo tick-up I've seen in the big leagues, it really doesn't add up to my game that well. However, I have bad spin – they are good Stuff+ – and along with the way I use them, that's why I was able to have high hit numbers. But it's also the reason I'm leaving guys. Those pitches are usually hard to control, and the strike zone up here is a bit narrow.
“So, those are the changes I'm trying to make right now. I am more committed to doing these methods, which I know are already good, than chasing shape or chasing high speed. That's where I am at this time of year. I've got about 20 starts under my belt, so it's not something I'm going to put it on, but I think my idea of being a successful pitcher has changed a little bit.”
Laurila: It sounds like one of the things you do is put your ego aside.
Arrighetti: “Of course. I say I put my ego in my back pocket. I'm not trying to throw two-strike heaters up to guys who hit fastballs up the middle very well. If you have that knowledge and you let your ego be the reason for the beating, there is only one person you can point the finger at. It's not the guys doing the scouting reports, and it's not the catcher calling the pitches. It's me. I don't want that to be the story of my career, to always look back and say I threw the wrong pitch. That's why I started putting more stock in pitch selection, as opposed to pitch construction.
“I've got to throw more than I'm throwing, and I think I've done a pretty good job of that in the last month or so. I chose my platforms better. I will live and die with the one that I think gives me the best chances. That was a good development for me. In the past, throwing hard and being bad was all I had to do, but again, at this level it's not a differentiator; it's almost a necessity. To do something with those crazy numbers in TrackMan, you have to be able to throw it where you want it, and throw it out of the place you want it.”
Laurila: You are referring to something that seems counterintuitive yet makes a lot of sense. You might have a strong grasp of math – be a pitching nerd – and be more of a pitcher than a pitcher.
Arrighetti: “That's kind of its identity factor. I want to throw 100 mph to the plate and get 19 guys out of the game. That's everyone's dream, as hitters want to hit 480 yards at 120 mph. You want to chase those landmarks that are placed in front of us, but you have to understand that it takes really special people to be able to do that.
“It doesn't take a special person to be able to know yourself better as a player and not rush into things that are not your thing. Having a better sense of myself, I understand that I should not throw 100. I have to throw what I want to throw – what I have to throw – where I want to throw it. If you have a pitcher who can't learn to pitch, that's where you get something. That's how you can be successful.”
Source link
