River Ryan, Jazz Chisholm, and Baseball's Most Injured Teams

Because of the trade deadline, this is a quiet time of year for shopping, but baseball's injury list is always on the rise, and Tuesday was sadly no exception. First came the announcement that Dodgers prospect River Ryan, our No. 21 prospect in the Top 100, would need Tommy John surgery, ending his 2024 season, and keeping him out for 2025. He should not be left out. of the injury party at UCL, Jazz Chisholm Jr. hurt his left elbow at home plate Monday night. The extent of Chisholm's injury is still unknown, but with the season quickly coming to an end, any significant time on the shelf could jeopardize his ability to help the Yankees in their playoff push this year.

Chisholm was the biggest addition the Yankees made at the deadline, a versatile offensive player the team hopes will bring emergency help to a struggling offense that has averaged an OPS in the mid-.600s from four positions (first base, second base, third base, and left field). And Chisholm more than lived up to those expectations, with seven home runs in 14 games behind a .316/.361/.702 slash line. As noted above, the full extent of his injury is unknown at this time, but in a tight race against the Baltimore Orioles (and a playoff bye at stake), every run is precious. The Yankees have had a surprising amount of bad luck when it comes to the health of their trades at the deadline in recent years; between Frankie Montas, Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, Andrew Benintendi, and Harrison Bader, you might get the idea that they often receive medical bills from their careers.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers, as is often the case with the team, have had more than their share of injuries, with an IL rotation of Walker Buehler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Emmet Sheehan likely outnumbering most of the team's players. healthy to go around. With so many injuries, the Dodgers promoted Ryan to the majors. He was solid (if sometimes erratic) in his first 5 1/3 innings against the Giants, and his one-run, eight-hit effort against the Astros ensured he would get more starts as long as he signed. Unfortunately, he was only able to make two more starts before hitting the shelf; He was pulled in the fourth quarter of Saturday's game against the Pirates due to arm stiffness. The returning Buehler is expected to start Wednesday, giving the team a rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Kershaw, and Gavin Stone — at least until someone hurts an elbow, fixes an oblique, or gets run over by a cartoon. steamroller.

The Dodgers have been resilient in the face of their injuries, making their 71-49 record, best in the National League, more impressive than it might otherwise be. But they may not be finding the scene in their rear-view mirror so sweet, as the Diamondbacks and Padres have both been on a tear in recent months. Despite going 15-10 in their last 25 games, on pace for 97 wins in a full season, the Dodgers saw their eight-game lead dwindle in the middle. Other injury-prone teams haven't been as successful, and the Atlanta Braves immediately come to mind. While the general emphasis of their offense puts a good offense, Atlanta has experienced many injuries to key players, most notably 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., and rotation star Spencer Strider.

So are the Dodgers and Braves actually do you have the best case for cursing the gods who hurt you? And where do the Yankees stack up? Since I'm always looking for an excuse to bring more tension to my baseball analysis, this seems like a good time to look at which teams have lost the most value to injury or, at the very least, have the most value in the game. IL instead of program card. To do this, I took the missed time of all 622 players who appeared in IL this year, calculated the full, healthy MPI in ZiPS at the time of their injury, and averaged the missed time to date. . Note that this is possible the amount lost due to injuries, not the amount of wins lost, as the most injured teams naturally couldn't play. everyone full time in healthy condition. Trying to play down the injuries to do that would create a lot of false positives, like trying to figure out how quickly the Yankees would have turned to Luis Gil if Gerrit Cole had been healthy to start the season. Let's dive in:

I swear, to my undeniable right to refuse to eat Cincinnati-style chili, that I didn't put my thumb on the scale for the Dodgers and Braves to come out on top here. Remember, this doesn't mean the Dodgers actually lost 14 games, or that they would have been 85-35 if they were healthy, just that they lost a lot. possible you win. There is no plausible way that they could fully utilize a healthy Glasnow, Stone, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Miller, Buehler, Gonsolin, and May at the same time.

Also ranked high are the Texas Rangers, whose plan to have a slew of injured starting pitchers make a midseason comeback will likely turn out to be too little, too late. The Red Sox are incredibly resilient on the edge of a playoff run, and have done so with the loss of Lucas Giolito, Trevor Story, Triston Casas, and Garrett Whitlock. The Marlins losing most of their rotation in the spring is a well-known disaster, and the Astros had to deal with a lot of their starters missing time in the early months of the season.

On the other hand, the Royals were very lucky with their injuries, as ZiPS didn't see any particularly impactful ones. That the Blue Jays and Tigers generally stay healthy makes their seasons look more pressing; they actually had the guys they wanted on the roster. Good health helped the Nationals stay very close to eligibility in the early months of the season, and while the Phillies endured six-week IL stints from Trea Turner and JT Realmuto, they largely avoided serious injuries that would have tested their offensive depth, in particular. in an outside area. As for the Yankees, despite the perception that they are worse because of injuries, their average of 6.5 wins and only losses ranks 10th in the league, half a win above the average of 6.0. Cole was great, and poor health plagued much of their bullpen, but the loss here was nothing short of debilitating compared to the average team.

When evaluating team projections at the end of the season, which players end up getting playing time is very important in predicting a team's record and how accurate the projections are. Although teams have gotten much better over the past 20 years at identifying which players are good in baseball, figuring out how to keep everyone healthy is still baseball's El Dorado. Until that unexpected day, injuries will continue to plague teams (and fans), and we will continue to count.