Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Is a star again

If you talk to someone from Toronto who doesn't follow baseball, they can tell you two things about the Blue Jays. The first is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. he is the best player in the team. The second is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The first point is very accurate, and certainly true of this season – more on that in a moment. The second point is false in isolation, but alas, this is the curse of superstardom. A player whose face is plastered all over the city will receive a lot of praise when things go well, but he will also receive extreme criticism when things don't go well. If you're the guy who plays in the Uncrustables commercials, fans expect a crustless performance on the field, too.

Guerrero made a name for himself in 2021, which was no easy task considering the man he shares his name with. However, with 48 home runs, 111 RBI, and an AL MVP runner-up finish, Guerrero gave the average Torontonian a reason to talk about baseball for the first time since José Bautista was hit in the face. Then, Guerrero spent the next two years tarnishing his golden reputation. To be clear, no one who knows what they're talking about ever thought he was a bad football player — heck, he set a new record for the highest salary ever handed out at a contention hearing this past season — but his performance has definitely declined. If all you were comparing him to was the best version of himself (like that motivational poster at your gym that keeps telling you to do it), he was a huge disappointment last year:

That said, the criticism Guerrero faced was not entirely unwarranted, even if it was overwhelming. The one thing the Blue Jays needed last season was quality play from their top player. Their pitching staff finished fifth in the majors in WAR, and their defense won the AL team the Glove. The offense, however, came up short more often than not, finishing 14th in baseball in runs scored. In 2023, the star season from Guerrero all the Blue Jays were missing. This year, in the tragic end, it's almost all they have.

Indeed, while Toronto sat in last place in the AL East, Guerrero ranked among the top 10 AL players with a 4.0 WAR. His wRC+ of 167 is the fifth best among professional hitters in any league, trailing only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and Shohei Ohtani. He also ranks among the top five hitters in OBP (.394), wOBA (.404), xwOBA (.414), and wRAA (39.5). His bat is as powerful as it was when he burst onto the scene. If he keeps this up, word will eventually trickle down to non-baseball fans in the GTA that Guerrero, the best player on the team, is no longer asking for it (even though he never did).

Ultimately, whether Guerrero thrives or flounder, he may not escape comparisons to his 2021 performance. Last year, the star Vladdy was gone. This year, he is back in full glory. With that in mind, I'd like to offer my own comparison that I hope will be more meaningful than the “It's over/It's back a lot” meme. While his offensive stats (i.e. wRC+) are nearly identical in 2021 and '24, I'm interested in the slight difference that led him to another stellar season.

First, the post-All-Star break Guerrero is currently enjoying a run unlike anything we've seen from him before:

To put the numbers on that graph into perspective, the difference between Guerrero's past 25 games and Guerrero's best 25 games at any other time in his career is 63 wRC+ points. That's the difference between Barry Bonds (career 173 wRC+) and Adam LaRoche (110 wRC+). That's nuts.

Bonkers aside, I'll take the exact numbers with a grain of salt, as we don't have a good feel for the park locations at TD Ballpark and Sahlen Field, where the Blue Jays played their home games for the first four months. for the 2021 season. Still, it's hard to deny that Guerrero is playing the best baseball of his career right now. Only four other players have had a higher OPS during any 25-game span (limited to one season) in the past 10 years: Judge (2022, '24), Ohtani ('23), Bryce Harper ('15), and Giancarlo Stanton ('17). Usually when a guy hits like this, even in a small sample size, it's almost a sure bet that he's on his way to winning the MVP.

On the point of small sample sizes, I should clarify that this is not a stable run for Guerrero. If common sense can't tell you that, then his .432 BABIP should. However, that doesn't mean he hasn't found his success yet. This 100-PA rolling xwOBA graph looks exactly like the 25-game wRC+ graph I posted above:

One of the reasons Guerrero's numbers stand out so much is that he has hit 11 home runs since the All-Star break. That matches his highest home run total from any 25-game season in 2021. However, he had the most of those times that season, finishing with a league-leading 48 home runs. This year, he's on pace for just 33 bombs. Indeed, his home run production may be the biggest difference between his offensive profile in 2021 and '24. However, that distinction may not be as meaningful as it seems.

First, Guerrero crushed 11 home runs over 21 games at TD Ballpark in Dunedin and added 10 more over 23 games at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. That's a pace of 77 homers in a full season… in a couple of minor league outfields. To top it all off, Guerrero crushed 10 more bombs in 36 games when the Blue Jays returned to the Rogers Center, still a 45-homer. However, it's important to remember that home runs were higher across the league in 2021 compared to '24. In addition, the Blue Jays have made significant renovations to Rogers Center that have made the ballpark less home-friendly over the past two seasons. Accordingly, Guerrero is on pace for 17 hits on the road this year, which would match his output from 2021.

It's also worth pointing out that a ton of the home runs Guerrero hasn't hit have been doubles instead; The slugger doubled down on a mountain of dingers. While his home run output is down from 2021, he is on pace for 78 more hits, which would equal his total from that season. Indeed, he is only two times away from landing a new job. Once again, this isn't entirely sustainable — Guerrero's .225 BABIP on fly balls is more than double the league average — but you can't look at his .585 xSLG and suggest he hasn't earned his streak. Guerrero remains a serious power threat, even if he hits fewer home runs.

The final notable difference between Guerrero's offensive numbers in 2021 and '24 comes in the form of the types of pitches he hits. In 2021, Guerrero indulged in four-seam fastballs — more than any other hitter in the short history of Baseball Savant's arsenal statistics ('19-present). Per Savant, he gave up 34 total runs against four seamers that season. He also added another six runs scored against the Sinkers. In 2024, Guerrero sees heaters at the same level, but has never been as productive in them. He has a +6 RV against four seamers and a neutral 0 RV against sinkers. His numbers against fastballs (not including cutters) are still above average, but a far cry from what they were in 2021:

On the other hand, his numbers against all other fields are the best ever:

All things considered, it doesn't matter what type of pitch a batter is successful against as long as he produces the same amount in the mix. However, Guerrero's strong performance against non-fastballs means he's been a bit of a risk in pitcher-friendly stats this year, and I wonder if that's given him a little more freedom to choose with his swing. He's swinging at fewer pitches this year, leading to more strikeouts. However, when he chooses to hack, his results are better than ever. His +11 earned run rate in swings this year ranks fifth in the majors and is already tied for his +11 RV in swings from 2021. He is one of only 22 professional hitters (out of 300) with a positive run value in his swing. Unsurprisingly, his success in swings played a big role in his overall success.

The only disappointing difference between Guerrero's two best seasons came not at the plate, but in other aspects of his game. Unfortunately, he is putting up some of the worst baserunning and defensive metrics of his career. As you can imagine, that really means something. Guerrero ranked last among first basemen in Fielding Run Value and third worst among all players in BsR. So, “only” on pace for 5.3 WAR, a full win below his 6.3 MPI in 2021. It's not the end of the world, but even for the first batsman, there is a noticeable difference between a bad defense. and basic and aggressive defense and low running:

We've written quite a bit here at FanGraphs (both directly and indirectly) about how Guerrero can return to his peak form. They were all good ideas — hit fewer pitches but hit more, limited ground balls, pulled more fly balls with a 95-105 mph EV bucket — but in the end, Guerrero did it his way. He makes more contact, hits more bases, and pulls less than ever. And he uses his incredible raw power and good swing to hit a lot of baseballs and hit them hard. The results speak for themselves. He might look a little different, but in almost every way that matters, the 2021 version of Vladdy is back.