I will always stick with batsmen who have the ability to vary the bat vertically. To successfully cover pitches at different heights in the strike zone, the hitter must change the angle of his bat relative to the ground to create lift. To hit a pitch at the top of the zone for a line drive, the bat must be flat, and to pitch below the zone for a line drive, the bat must be up. It's a simple concept that some hitters can use more consistently than others. Jackson Merrill is one of those people.
When I first got into hitting mechanics, Mike Trout was the one who made it easy to understand the vertical variation of the bat. Vintage Trout's lower half looked almost the same in every swing, but depending on the pitch, his entire torso angle would change. Over the years, players like Michael Brantley, Freddie Freeman, and Trea Turner have all used impressive levels of vertical bat versatility, too. And surprisingly, they all maintained (or still do) strikeout rates below league average with great gap-to-gap line drive skills. When Eric Longenhagen started comparing Merrill's swing to Brantley's, I was impatient to see what the Padres outfielder would do in the big leagues. So far, he has exceeded expectations.
Through his first 121 career games, Merrill posted a 125 wRC+ with a .290/.321/.484 slash line. Over the past month, he's found his power to go along with his top line swing, and during that time, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball, with a 182 wRC+ in 104 plate appearances. It came at a good time for the Padres, who picked them up and are just three games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers.
Merrill's sound mechanics and production at the plate are even more impressive considering he's still a 21-year-old rookie and learning a new position. Although his experience in the minors was limited to 45 innings in left field last year in Double-A, he has developed into one of the best defensive players in the game (6 OAA).
His ability to get down and get even with the best while assembling a high strike zone is key to his success early in his career. Below is a table highlighting his performance in both the top three and bottom three:
Merrill Performance in the Vertical Zone
| Location | xOBA | League level* |
|---|---|---|
| Third High | .381 | 27 |
| Third Middle | .432 | 29 |
| Third Lower | .386 | 25 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
*Of 194 hitters to see at least 1,250 pitches since Aug. 20
Elite players have all different production conditions. Juan Soto covers everything up in the zone, Aaron Judge crushes everything in the heart, and Yordan Alvarez breaks everything down. But it is not uncommon for hitters to produce this way in both high and low gardens. In fact, among the 194 hitters who have seen 1,250 pitches this season, only two other players have xwOBAs ranked in the top 30 for pitches in both the top and bottom thirds of the zone, Ketel Marte and Marcell Ozuna, two. of the top 11 hitters in the wRC+ game. Merrill and Ozuna are the only hitters with top 30 xwOBAs in all three straight.
As I mentioned earlier, a batsman needs to use a swing that is flat at the top of the pitch and steep at the bottom. It sounds simple enough, but the tricky part is generating enough bat speed at a range of bat angles to work with the idea of damage while maintaining body control for contact. What's notable here is how Merrill does this: Unlike most hitters, Merrill keeps his bat straight on low and high pitches, allowing him to create enough height to hit the gaps regardless of the pitch. It's a balance of power and finesse that Merrill seems to master.
I can throw a bunch of numbers at you to explain this particular skill, but the best way to understand this is by watching what he does with his body and the bat. Let's take a look:
Third High
Before looking at the third swing below, here are a few quick notes. He maintains his posture and shoulder plane throughout the three rounds. As a result, he keeps his bat in the same vertical plane as these positions so that he can add the bottom half of the baseball to create backspin but not get too far under it to get it out. Also, his torso backbend in the second turn is amazing. This movement is most noticeable in a hitter like Shohei Ohtani, who just before contact bends his upper body to give his barrel room to get behind the ball. Few hitters have the necessary upper body or t-spine flexibility to do this; Merrill is one of them. Ok, now into some changes in the third one below:
Third Lower
Pay attention to his back shoulder at each turn. Merrill's body and bat move together as he swings, and he uses his back shoulder as a guide to get his barrel through the hole in the lower third. Whether it's a back foot breaking ball or a dot heater, the angle of his back shoulder lines up his swing.
The important thing to take away from all of this is that Merrill has a great understanding of how to use his upper body to get his bat in flight with different pitches. That's a high-level skill that currently dominates his game. He has the ability to develop more tools and sharpen the ones he currently has as he gains more experience. He's already started coming into his powers over the last month or so. He still chases a lot of pitches and struggles against lefties, albeit in a small sample of plate appearances (70 wRC+, 127 PA), but then again, he's 21 and looking things up in his first major league season. What we're seeing from him right now is his first place as a batsman, and that's really exciting.
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