Winnipeg Jets Best and Worst Scenarios for 2024-25 – Hockey Writers – Winnipeg Jets

In the 2024-25 season, the Jets will look to repeat the regular season success they had last season and actually advance to the first round of the playoffs since 2021. They will have a hard time repeating their 52 wins in 2023-24 as they have lost a number of key contributors, and if things go wrong, they could see a decline.

However, if most things go as expected, they could be a top three team in the Central Division again. Here, we'll examine the Jets' best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024-25 season.

Best-Case Scenario: Youth Movement Completes Core Players and Jets Make Playoffs

While the Jets still have a solid core of up-and-coming stars — Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, and others — they're not as strong on paper going into 2024-25 as they were. until the end of 2023-24. They lost a lot in free agency, including top-six forwards Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to the Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks, respectively, top-four defenseman Brenden Dillon to the New Jersey Devils, and backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit to the Chicago Blackhawks.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff didn't sign anyone smart in free agency to replace them, so new coach Scott Arniel will have to lean on his youth — which he described as “vital” — to be a solid NHL contributor and complement what they already have. and the established players Connor, Morrissey, Scheifele, Hellebuyck and company are known for doing (Connor, score 30-plus goals; Morrissey, be an offensive defenseman; Hellebuyck, be in the Vezina Trophy conversation again; Scheifele, work around the perimeter point each game, etc. .)

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The three biggest beneficiaries of this move-by-need of youth seem to be Brad Lambert, Ville Heinola, and Cole Perfetti. Lambert, with Monahan's departure, is among the contenders for the second spot after leading the Moose in points last season with 55 (21 goals, 34 assists) in the high post and starting power play roles. If the 2022 30th-overall pick isn't ready for a top-six role at center, he could still find a spot on the wing.

Heinola, with Dillon's departure, also appears to be in a good position to finally make the full-time roster five years after being drafted 20th overall in 2019. The Finns played well enough before last season to make the team, according to the retired coach. Rick Bowness said, but a broken ankle in pre-season last season ruined the fullback's chances. Instead he spent four months rehabbing before getting back up to speed with the Moose in the second half, finishing 41 on a high-scoring and high-energy play, recording 27 points (10 goals, 17 assists.)

Heinola's actual defensive play has been questionable at times, but he'll have to be strong enough for a lineup that includes Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, Colin Miller, Neal Pionk, and Dylan Samberg if the team is going to be as tough as last time. a season in which they allowed a league-low 199 goals.

Perfetti, another contributor at second base, shouldn't be as healthy as he was on the floor last season. If he can be as good throughout this season as he was in the first half of last season, it will go a long way toward picking up some of the offense lost with Monahan's departure (.70 points per game.) Perfetti, the 10th overall pick in 2020, was drafted 29 points (12 goals, 17 assists) in his first 41 games, but fell into an extended scoring drought and was placed on the fourth line or stood in the press box after Toffoli's arrival. in the middle.

If the Jets' youth adjust well to expanded roles, the stars do what they need to do, and they get continued contributions from Mason Appleton, Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry, Vladislav Namestnikov, and others the offense should be good. The Jets' success last season didn't come mainly from teams putting out run-and-gun barn-burners, though -— in fact, when they got into that kind of game, you knew they were off the charts for success. Bowness is set for them. Their success came from how little they gave up five-on-five; at one point, they went 34 games in a row without allowing more than three goals.

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In fact, the best-case scenario is that Hellebuyck plays the same way he did last season, when he won his second Vezina Trophy, and that Eric Comrie or Kaapo Kahkonen (whoever wins the battle to be his backup) is reliable enough that Arniel doesn't that. you should run the rampant Hellebuyck with 65-plus starts.

This writer currently believes the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche will finish first and second in the Central, but if all of the above happens and the Jets don't have too many injuries to key players at inopportune times, there's no reason they can't challenge. third in the division — or at least grab a Western Conference wild-card spot — to make the playoffs again.

Worst-Case: Jets Can't Overcome Free-Agent Losses or Improve Special Teams and Running Backs

On the flip side, there are many things that could, if they happen, prevent the Jets from making the playoffs in the Central Division where other teams like the Avalanche and Nashville Predators have had much better offseasons.

Young people may fail to adequately fill the gaps in the list and prove too young or inexperienced at first. If Heinola, Lambert, and Perfetti continue to struggle in their expanded roles against opponents' best players, the Jets' offense and defense will be worse than last season.

In a worst-case scenario, the Jets' special teams will see no improvement. It's all well and good to be believable in five on five but an even strength team can still lose a game because of poor special teams. The few minutes a team may spend up or down on a person (or two) on any given night can make a disproportionate impact on the final result.

The Jets' special teams were underwhelming last season and cost them more than a handful of games as their power play finished 22nd in the NHL with an efficiency of 18.75 percent and their penalty kill finished 21st with a kill rate of 77.13 percent. Arniel brought new assistant coaches in Davis Payne and Dean Chynoweth on board to help change the regimes with new ideas and new tactics, but if they can't do it, the Jets will not be able to achieve their full potential and will be in space. a difficult place if they are not strong in five on five.

In net, the worst-case scenario would see Comrie or Kahkonen not perform well in their starts, forcing Arniel to start Hellebuyck 65-plus times (he had 60 starts last season.) Mismanaging Hellebuyck's career came back to bite the Jets. in previous seasons, and they need him fresh in March and April when games are often more important for a playing position or a berth. Bowness did a better job of not overworking Hellebuyck than Paul Maurice and Dave Lowry, and we'll see who Arniel plays.

A worst-case scenario could lead to Ehlers being traded, and dealing with a top-six player isn't a good look for a team that considers itself a Stanley Cup contender. The power forward is a pending unrestricted free agent in the final season of his contract, and if the Jets don't re-sign him and compete at the 2025 Trade Deadline, Cheveldayoff may be forced to trade him for future assets. avoid losing him in vain.

The worst-case scenario could involve long-term injuries, or unexpected seasons from popular players. Most of the Jets' stars have been consistent throughout their careers and none are in danger of declining due to age, but a tough season for someone is always in the realm of possibility. Injuries are something the team can't control, but they always threaten to disrupt the chemistry or destroy the campaign completely (Hellebuyck going down would probably do the latter.) The Jets have a few players in Ehlers and Perfetti, before last season, had a difficult time staying healthy.

Finally, there are a few things related to coaching that could be worst-case scenarios, such as the Jets as a whole not responding to Arniel's coaching style or Arniel trying and failing to make major playing style or ownership changes. Both seem unlikely, however, as he was a part of helping Bowness shape the Jets into the defensive-minded, strong team they are today.

Large Flux of Jets Enters 2024-25

As we can see, there are a lot of variables for the Jets as they enter the season with young players trying to carve out bigger roles under a new coaching staff. As we see again, a lot can go right and a lot can go wrong. Ultimately, the Jets' season will likely fall in the middle of our two scenarios, with some things going well and others not. Time will tell if the Jets will be able to repeat their success or if they will regress.