Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I'll be kicking off your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Jordan Montgomery was terrible in his first season with the Diamondbacks. 6.44 ERA is bad, 5.23 xERA is bad, 15.5% strikeout rate is bad, .377 wOBA allowed is bad. We all know these things. (Dad, if you're reading this, and I know you are: Now you know these things. All those statistics are bad.) So I won't spend much time writing that point. But Montgomery's badness has ramifications that go beyond how long he'll be in the rotation or if he'll be on the roster the Diamondbacks will likely be building.
Montgomery agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks just before Opening Day that paid him $25 million guaranteed this year, and came with a player option to give Montgomery, as discussed with his agent at the time, Scott Boras. (Montgomery has since left Boras for Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock at Wasserman.) If Montgomery had made fewer than 10 starts this year, he would have become a free agent after the World Series; this was meant to reduce Arizona's risk if Montgomery suffered a long-term injury while stepping up after his late signing.
But what didn't protect the Diamondbacks was inefficiency, and Montgomery's 2025 is now on his hands. The value of the option started at $20 million, in Montgomery's 10th start, and rose to $22.5 million in his 18th start. It will reach its $25 million cap with four other startups. Since Montgomery is so focused on the “he'll have to take a one-year cushion contract”, I'd be very shocked if he didn't take the $25 million payday. The best he can hope for now is that next year, after having a normal offseason and full spring training, he throws as much as he did during his reign during the 2023 postseason, so that his value will return when he becomes a free agent again after the 2025 season.
The bottom line in any team's earnings would be significant — $25 million is a lot! – but especially the Diamondbacks. The Snakes currently have $171 million committed to this season, their highest salary ever, and $63 million committed to next year. If Montgomery starts four more and chooses to stay with the team, next year's cap hit could reach $88 million. On the surface, you'd think that would give Arizona a ton of room to build a team as good as this one, but the salary could go up very, very quickly.
That $63 million number is the only one committed to players since the second, especially the guaranteed money of Eduardo Rodriguez, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Corbin Carroll. Also included are the hypothetical purchases of the same options (which were never exercised) for Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Scott McGough. That $63 billion also includes the $3 million in buyouts the D-backs will have to pay if they don't acquire club options on Eugenio Suárez and Merrill Kelly. Suárez's option could go either way, so for now we'll assume it's declined, but Kelly's seems like a no-brainer to pick up for just $7 million. Eliminating that (adding $7 million and subtracting the $1 million buyout they won't have to pay him), we're now at $69 million, or $94 million for Montgomery. That figure would be about 55% of the payout for this year's record six players.
Of the players eligible for arbitration: Zac Gallen, AJ Puk, Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Joe Mantiply have entered the partnership before and should all stick; they made about $14.3 million combined this year. Assuming consistently that in the merger they get a 25% raise, that's another $18 million or so added to next year's pay, for a total of $112 million. Throw in the $3 million combined guys who will be in their first year of arbitration — Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo — and we're down to two-thirds of this year's salary. Pre-arbitration judgment players must account for, at least, another $10 million or more, and it grows, bringing the amount up to $125 million, 70% of where it is this season.
All of that will leave the D-backs with plenty of room to build another really good team if they don't have any free agents to replace them, but they certainly will. Pederson has been quiet as a team DH; despite playing exactly zero games in the field and facing lefties only 30 times, he compiled a 3.1 WAR because he is so good at covering righties. Christian Walker, currently in IL with an oblique strain, is slated to hit free agency entering his age-34 season, so he's not in line for a big payday, but he could still decline Arizona's qualifying offer and look long-term. agreement.
Maybe 7th-ranked Jordan Lawlar can slot into the infield, making Suárez's move easier to swallow, but there's no heir apparent to Walker at first or Pederson at DH. The D-backs traded away first basemen Andrés Chaparro and Deyvison De Los Santos, and Tommy Troy — another top 100 prospect — is struggling in High-A and years away from the majors. Maybe Gurriel Jr. spends more time at DH next season to keep him young, with the quick exits of Carroll, Thomas, and Jake McCarthy, though without Pederson and Walker, that certainly makes for a worse offense. Signing at least one starter would cost (again, in savings) at least $12 million, which would bring them to 80% of this season's payroll.
Again, all of these estimates are subjective, and I'm only putting in a small amount of the investment the Diamondbacks would have to make to continue to have a competitive, well-rounded program. All this to say: They may need to get creative. With Montgomery and Kelly both expected to be available next season, Arizona will have six starters (Montgomery, Kelly, Rodriguez, Gallen, Ryne Nelson, and Brandon Pfaadt) for five rotation spots. The D-backs could trade that surplus to fill a position of need, just like they did a few seasons ago when they traded Daulton Varsho for Gabriel Moreno and Gurriel Jr.
Teams will represent Pfaadt, Nelson has quietly been worth a 2.0 MPI, and even though he hasn't pitched as an ace for over a year now, Gallen still has noticeable trade value as he enters his final year before free agency. I'm not saying the Diamondbacks will definitely trade the starter, but it's something they should consider. The Orioles, for example, are rich in young position players and only have three rotations (Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers) locked in for next year.
Of course, if Montgomery returns next season, Arizona won't regret paying him $25 million, but unless ownership decides to raise the salary, things will be tough. The main focus for the Diamondbacks right now is defending their National League title, but regardless of how long they last in the postseason, tough decisions await them on the other side of October.
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