For the second year in a row, Matt Chapman stands as one of the best free agent hitters yet to come. Unless he suffers a major injury in the next few weeks, he's sure to be out of the final two years and $36MM of his deal with the Giants.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a few weeks ago that San Francisco was hoping to keep the third star on a new multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras confirmed as much to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, telling her the sides have had some discussions. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi put things in a similar vein, telling Slusser that the teams had “conversations” and an “active conversation” about the long-term plan.
Those are vague words that can mean something is close. Still, it's confirmation that there is some interest in keeping Chapman in San Francisco. He is a California native who has a long relationship with captain Bob Melvin dating back to their time in Oakland.
Chapman had no problem adjusting to Oracle Park. He takes a .245/.335/.442 batting line and his strong defensive marks into tonight's game in Seattle. He is 20+ for the fifth time in his career with a solid 11% walk percentage. Chapman's 24.3% strikeout rate is slightly higher than the league mark but would be his lowest rate since 2019. Very good production all round despite a slow start. Chapman limped to a .266 hitting percentage at the end of April. He has been one of the most productive infielders in the majors since then, posting a .253/.355/.461 line with 16 homers dating back to May 1.
The opposite pattern for Chapman's 2023 campaign. He was arguably the best player in the majors in the first month of the season last year. His offensive numbers dropped after that and he hit the market with something of a downward arrow. Chapman had an easy call to turn down a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, but he and his camp at the Boras Corporation didn't get the money they wanted. It wasn't until early March that he posted a $54MM guarantee with multiple exits.
Between the signing bonus, his salary, and the buyout (assuming he's out), Chapman is making $20MM this year. That's about what he would have done had he taken the QO in Toronto — although the two extra years present a much longer-lasting safety than it would have otherwise provided.
Chapman will likely try again for a nine-figure deal. He will play almost all of next season at the age of 32. It's hard but not impossible to get a $100MM+ deal in that time. As shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, there have been four out of nine deals in the past decade for hitters who were 32 or older. Freddie Freeman's The six-year, $162MM deal led the way among free agent contracts. Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt again Manny Machado signed extensions ranging between $125MM and $170MM in new money over five-year terms.
Those players were all better hitters than Chapman. As an extra defender at third base, he provides more value on that side of the ball than anyone, except maybe Machado. Teams may be wary of paying for a defenseman in his mid-30s.
Chapman's five-year tenure will surpass his age-36 season. That's the point there Chris Bryant again Anthony Rendon they were paid on seven-year contracts (both of which were disasters for the team). Chapman certainly won't come close to Rendon's $35MM annual salary. Bryant's $26MM AAV is a realistic indicator, though it could be four or five years instead of seven.
Josh Donaldson again DJ LeMahieu each signed up to age 37 as a free agent third baseman. Both guarantees are assessed at south of $100MM. Those contracts are several years old and both were signed after the player rejected a fair offer, thus attaching a draft compensation. The Giants can't make Chapman a QO — the CBA prohibits a player from getting more than one in his career — so he'll hit the market entirely. Without some sort of hometown discount, Chapman likely won't be interested in giving up free agent travel under the guarantees of Donaldson and LeMahieu.
Alex Bregman leads the upcoming free agent class at third base. Chapman is the clear #2 choice and the class goes down a lot there. Last winter's team was not deep at all. If one considers Cody Bellinger primarily an outfielder rather than a starting linebacker, Chapman's $54MM guarantee led all players.
As Slusser sees it, the Chapman extension may have to be San Francisco's biggest investment under this front office. The Giants have signed just nine deals since hiring Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations during the 2018-19 offseason: last winter's six-year, $113MM deal for the 25-year-old. Jung Hoo Lee. They took many big swings and were failing to sign Carlos Correa for $350MM, but they haven't gotten a homegrown free agent to a long-term deal. They are more prone to short-term takeovers by exiting players whose markets have not developed as they would have liked (eg. Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Blake SnellChapman).
The Giants have about $132MM in guaranteed money for next season. The expected exits of Snell and Chapman will drop that to $85MM. Lee, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray (assuming he doesn't release this year) again Jordan Hicks they are the only players signed before next year. That does not include the mediation assumption of Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, LaMonte Wade Jr. again Camilo Doval. Estrada and Yastrzemski are potential trade or non-tender candidates. The Giants should have a good amount of salary flexibility even if they keep everyone on their arbitration panel.
Source link
