Islanders Coaches: How Patrick Roy Compares to Lane Lambert – Hockey Writers – New York Islanders

The New York Islanders replaced former head coach Lane Lambert with Hall of Fame goaltender Patrick Roy midway through the 2023-24 season. Under Roy, the team went 100 points, fighting to make the playoffs before losing in Round 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. This was a stark contrast to the Islanders' performance under Lambert, suggesting that expectations for the 2024-25 season should focus more on the team's performance under Roy.

The Worry Game by Lee and Cizikas

The Islanders had two players with very different results under two head coaches last season: Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas. The two great players have more than 1,800 games combined in their careers, all on Long Island, yet they struggled to find their footing when Roy took over. To start the 2023-24 season, Lee had 19 points (13 goals and six assists) in 45 games, while Cizikas had 11 points (five goals and six assists) in 39 games.

When Roy was hired, Lee scored 18 points (seven goals and 11 assists) in 36 games, comparable production to the first half, but had one key assist. This is unusual for Lee, who had the top two assists in the first half of the season, but considering that his point production has declined throughout the season, 2024-25 may not be what fans expect again.

It was a similar story for Cizikas, who had first-time assists in 31 games under Roy, compared to five in 39 games with Lambert. This could be attributed to the play of Cizikas and veterans Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck, two veterans targeting the defense, but when you look at the time on the starting line alongside Matt Barzal and Bo Horvat, the front line assistants have no excuses.

Strong Defense Structure

The biggest difference the Islanders had with Roy at the helm was a superior defense. In Lambert's 45 games, the team had a 46.99 field goal percentage (GF%), 46.11 expected field goal percentage (xGF%), and 34.28 shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60), according to Evolving Hockey . Under Roy, 51.66 G%, 51.48 xGF%, and 29.56 SA/60. The fact that the Islanders were even able to stay in the playoff race under Lambert is a miracle, and the switch to Roy arguably saved the season.

Defensive Impact on Sorokin

What made Roy's arrival more impactful was the weight lifted from Ilya Sorokin's shoulders. With Lambert, Sorokin faced more shots per game than any goaltender in the NHL, including eight games with 40 or more shots. Under Roy, this number dropped to four, one of which was his first game as a coach.

An improved defensive system allowed Sorokin to slightly improve his numbers under Roy, but the damage was already done. Sorokin worked tirelessly and was clearly tired by the All-Star break, allowing weak goals for the first time in his NHL career. He had the same save percentage and goals-against-expectation (GSAx) per 60 minutes under the two head coaches, but his goals-against average dropped from 3.163 under Lambert to 2.727 with Roy.

Roy Raises Key Donors

While Cizikas and Lee's point production was tough with Roy, it wasn't for most players. Kyle Palmieri led the Islanders with 19 goals in 37 games with Roy, on pace for 42 goals. Barzal had 34 points (11 goals and 23 assists) in 36 games, finishing on pace for a game-high 27 goals. Brock Nelson may have only scored 14 goals in 37 games, but he had 33 points in that span. , including 14 primary assistants. In an 82-game season, he would finish with 31 goals and 73 points, career highs in both categories.

How Expectations Are Changing Today

While there is much to compare between the first and second half of the Islanders' 2023-24 season, it was still a relatively short sample. Not only were the lineups constantly changing due to injuries, but Roy's system was almost never fully utilized given his mid-season arrivals. However, there is enough data to change the expectations of some players this season.

Sorokin will go back

Sorokin arguably looked better in the second half, even with his fatigue, and at 29 years old, there's no reason to believe he'll go back. He has continued to make good saves, so a strong defense will greatly benefit him by reducing the number of shots he faces, improving both his day-to-day performance and long-term durability.

Lee and Cizikas' path to success

Lee and Cizikas struggled under Roy, but each had to bounce back. Cizikas is slated to play alongside two new teammates who should improve his offensive production while providing stability and some youth. Lee may be relegated to the bottom six, but that might be too good. In April of last season, he played with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Pierre Engvall in four games. In those games, the line had a 63.9 expected goals percentage (xG%). Then in the playoffs, the line had a 68.3 xG%. These are very short sample sizes, but having such strong numbers is better than not.

Top Leaders Keep Succeeding

The production of the Islanders top six should remain the same, which in some ways is good. After missing out on the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 due to a lack of top-six points, that concern is long gone for the Islanders. Barzal, Nelson, and Horvat have all played well under Roy, and while Palmieri may regress a bit, he should be in line for a 20+ goal, 40+ point season.

A Healthy Defense

With a healthy defense, Sorokin isn't the only player who stands to gain. If Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield can stay healthy for all 82 games, Noah Dobson should be empowered to really show off his offensive potential. Like Sorokin, Dobson overworked the defense with injuries, finishing the season with 1,936 minutes, the most by an Islander since the 2009-10 season (Mark Streit, 2,082 minutes). Allowing Dobson to ride the bench on the penalty kill and changing a few event strengths will make him even more lethal on the ice. The defense remains healthy “if,” but if it does, this team can compete with the best.

This is not to say that the Islanders are a star-studded team under Roy, but there is a very high ceiling for what this team is capable of. While a lot can go wrong, and probably will, there is a lot of hope to believe that the changes Roy will make will make this team stronger every night, possibly putting them in Stanley Cup contention if all goes well.