Jay Monahan said the PGA Tour's television numbers aren't as bad as they look, but what exactly did he mean?
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Jay Monahan is by most accounts a decent man. But even decent guys sometimes have to trade in deception.
For example, during the second act of your twice-yearly press release to check the state of your employer's business, the reporter just asked you a very difficult question. Ethics and morals say that you should try to answer the question honestly, but almost millions of years of social relations research show that it is best not to answer at all.
So, he made a response that sounded a little like what Jay Monahan said Wednesday morning at the Tour Championship, when the PGA Tour commissioner was asked about his feelings about the Tour's free-falling TV ratings. Not a blatant lie, but a deft bit of spin.
“I think when you look at 2024, it's important to note, and I will note, that the total utilization of all our platforms has been consolidated,” Monahan said, pointedly. “That's a good sign for the PGA Tour and the connection we have with our fans.”
If you understand the nature of TV ratings discussions, you can only appreciate the versatility of this answer. To Monahan's point, maybe it really is “total use”. is something above “combined.” That sounds like good news. But the best news is that few people know what PGA Tour spending is, either there is no you know how those metrics relate to the dollars earned by the Tour. In other words, it is a way of claiming victory in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
We care about TV ratings because they help us understand why networks pay so much money to broadcast sports. A bigger audience means more ad money, which is the start of an unholy cycle in the TV business (more ad dollars equals more value, and more value equals more money transferred to the leagues in exchange for their rights). A declining audience, on the other hand, spells trouble.
And rest assured, trouble is approaching for the PGA Tour in the world of TV ratings. In his question to Monahan, Josh Carpenter of SBJ suggested one of the Tour's TV partners saw ratings drop “15 to 17 percent” from 2023. After years of stable or slightly declining ratings, 2024 marked an unpleasant experience with a drop in audiences that tours would most like to avoid repeating.
Does all that mean Monahan was lying when he suggested the PGA Tour's spending spree was over? Not really. It means he wasn't intentionally telling the truth, which is that the PGA Tour's TV partners have seen about one-fifth of their viewers disappear by 2024. And, when the TV partners see one fifth of their audience disappear, it doesn't matter that the consumption data of the PGA Tour reveals the Zodiac. Bad news for Tour, golf, networks – for everyone.
Now some important qualifications. Yes, TV audiences are slowly falling due to the decline of cable TV. Of course, audience metrics change from year to year to more accurately capture those who have abandoned cable TV but watch live TV. And yes, the PGA Tour had seen a few years of strong ratings during the first few years of LIV, which means we can't immediately assume that the audience dip is related to the Saudi split and not at least in part due to, say, the mass population. other issues like programming and bad weather and weird audience behavior and the slow death march of cable TV.
Monahan made several of these points Wednesday, announcing the creation of a fan response program that aims to test and implement fan-driven broadcast solutions for PGA Tour events. (No word from the Tour if they'll consider “small ads” an adequate response.)
“Nielsen itself is currently reviewing its program and will announce changes to its program,” Monahan said, before turning to another popular name. “If you look at the reach on the PGA Tour, if that comes out, you'll probably see a double-digit increase in reach from the PGA Tour, as they've been able to continue to tap into the talent they have now. able to accept other colleagues.”
These are all good points, all reasonable defenses of a business that may not be as bad as falling TV ratings (of which this column already does a lot) suggest. But is it really believe me Jay Monahan when he says he's not too worried about TV ratings?
Amazingly, and only for now, yes.
Apparently Monahan is fabricating the truth in the hope that he can distract her indeed bad numbers and be some under-bad. He obviously understands that Nielsen is not to blame for his golf trip rate going down in 2024, because if Nielsen be to blame, every other show on television would have gone down the same way. He doesn't really believe it use again reach out they are more important ratings than TV audiences.
But you understand the most important part of TV ratings, which is that nothing matters during the contract. The PGA Tour is tied to NBC and CBS at the end of the decade with two different, very large papers: several billion dollars and many hundreds of pages of legalese. That much doesn't change. And, until the first round of negotiations comes around and probably in '28 or '29, it's not going to change.
For Monahan to undermine the tour's position by calling it a year of bad TV ratings is an inappropriate goal for him to take. The salary is the same no matter what you say. It's the same for the network's TV partners, which is why we've heard nothing but words of support, and to some extent dismissal, about the low complaints.
For the golf community to obsess over those TV ratings is your goal for similar, if less understandable, ratings. Numbers to hear as they are important, especially now. For better or worse, the only quantifiable battlegrounds in the battle between the PGA Tour and LIV are in the majors and in the Nielsen guide. If the numbers are low, they should be said something, especially when those numbers confirm our pre-existing feelings of existential dread.
The truth is that numbers mean something, probably less than you've let yourself believe. The PGA Tour is unlikely to be dumped by its TV partners or sold for scrap before its contract expires, meaning the Tour has a few years, if not more, before today's public concerns are enough to cause boardroom freakouts.
The news is not good. A 15 percent decline in a year is like losing 15 games in the first half of an NBA season. We're closing in on the All-Star break, but it's never too late to get things right.
Worry, worry a lot worried if you would like. Don't be surprised when Jay Monahan tells you he's not.
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