Breaking down the Top-6 Toronto Maple Leafs – Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs
As the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare for training camp next week, it's a perfect time to dive into our thoughts on the team's final plan. In this comprehensive review, I'll be teaming up with my regular writing partner, Stan Smith, to analyze the Maple Leafs roster from top to bottom.
We will divide our assessment into three detailed sections:
- Top Six: First, we'll examine the team's top six players, examine key players and possible line combinations that could run the offense.
- Forward Six Forward: In our next post, we will examine the six bottom strikers, examine their role and the impact they can have on the team's overall performance.
- Self defense: Finally, we will provide an in-depth review of the Maple Leafs defensive team, analyzing their strengths, potential pairings, and overall contributions to the team's success.
This is our first post as we try to figure out what this Maple Leafs team might look like as the regular season begins.
Front Row: Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews is one of the top three players in the NHL and the leading scorer. Now, he is also the captain of the Maple Leafs. This is officially his team. He is the undisputed number one center. ' said Nuff.
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Matthews and Mitch Marner. Matthews without Mitch Marner. That has been a question for eight years and will continue to be a question. There is also some debate as to which right fielder is better, Marner or William Nylander. For most of their careers, the general consensus was that Marner was the best player. Nylander has filled that gap, and there could be an argument that he passed Marner last season. A case can be made for Nylander to be Matthews' right wing.
The reason we went with Marner is because of his playmaking ability. Marner is an excellent host. He has 445 career assists compared to Nylander's 311 in 27 fewer games. With Matthews being the league's leading scorer, it makes sense to put him next to a top player. As a bonus, both Matthews and Marner are perfect 200-foot players. Both have solid defensive games and are in the Selke discussion at the end of each season. Final point: Nylander is a 40-goal scorer with a much better shot than Marner. For us, he is very important to play away from Matthews.
Matthew Knies is a powerful young player on the rise. While he may not have put up the numbers you'd hope to see from a top scorer last season, his game matches up well with Matthews and Marner. Knies is a portable straw that stirs the drink in that row. He had 20 more hits (169) than Matthews (90) and Marner (59) combined last season. One of the plays that Matthews and Marner played together from day one was to dump the puck in the left corner of the opposition zone and let the left wing come in, catch the body, and retrieve the puck. First, it was Zach Hyman, then Michael Bunting, now it was Knies. Since last year was Knies' rookie season, we don't expect any second jinx this season. We believe he will take the next step in becoming a power forward.
Second Row: Easton Cowan – John Tavares – William Nylander
We note that John Tavares will be 34 years old when the puck drops in the 2024-25 season. Even though people say he lost his step, we haven't seen it yet. According to new statistics from NHL Edge, Tavares' top speed last season was 22.39 MPH (36.03 KM/H) compared to the league average of 22.10 MPH (35.57 KM/H). 105 times during the games, he reached a speed of more than 20 MPH (32.19 KM/H). The league average was 73 times. Those stats didn't exist when Tavares was growing up, so we can't compare his skating now to when he was younger. He is above average when it comes to his skating. Speed may not be a strength, but it's not a weakness either.
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The biggest question about Tavares is his durability. Can he play 20 minutes a game? Is it necessary? As a second-line center, Tavares has averaged less than 18 minutes a game over the past four seasons. That doesn't seem like much of a burden. He doesn't kill penalties, and his role on the power play is often low, either in front of the net or near it. That doesn't require a ton of skiing. We don't see why he has to change his role so much because of his age. Our biggest concern may be his defensive style and how quickly he can recover if the game gets back on the ice. There are mixed defenses that can handle that if Tavares has speedy wings on his line.
Since joining the team, Tavares has been the Maple Leafs' leading center at the faceoff dot. Last season, his winning percentage was 59.3%. Although his scoring production dropped by 20% last season, he still scored 29 goals and 65 points. He averaged a point a game until last season and had a 36-point season and an 80-point season in 2022-23. We will never know if the decline was due to a decline in ability or a single decline. At this point, Tavares is still the second best center for the Maple Leafs.
With Marner on the top line, it doesn't make sense for Nylander to line up with Tavares on the second line. Nylander's all-around game has improved steadily over the past few years. He has scored 40 goals in the last two seasons. His point production over the last three seasons has been 80, 87, and 98. He is a powerful puck carrier and has a dangerous, tricky shot. While Tavares and Nylander have yet to put up outstanding defensive stats, Nylander's game off the puck is improving a bit.
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It may come as a surprise to some that we have Easton Cowan in this lineup as part of the final lineup. While his play in the minors went well beyond what you'd expect from a surprise late first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, how his play translates to the NHL remains in question. Our thinking is simple. Having Cowan in this lineup means he's earned a spot outside of camp, giving the Maple Leafs more options going down the roster. Cowan made the team and will be fighting for the Calder Trophy. We don't expect him to win Rookie of the Year, but he'll be in the conversation.
We have to hide that if Cowan doesn't make the team in camp, the battle for left tackle on the second line will be between Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson.
Maple Leafs Top Six Briefly
In short, the top six have two key features that make this unit so exciting. First, the four core players are well distributed in two lines: two in the first line and two in the second. Their smaller, less expensive counterparts give the team greater flexibility and balance, enhancing the overall strength of the lineup. We're sure players like Knies will fit seamlessly into this setup, impacting the top six.
Second, Cowan's potential impact as a reliever on this unit is significant. His relentless drive and desire to succeed, coupled with his goal-scoring ability from last season as a junior, make him a player to watch. While his spot on the roster ultimately depends on the decisions of the coaching staff, his potential is undeniable.
As we await an exciting top six for the Maple Leafs, in our next post, we'll analyze the bottom six forwards and how they'll stack up against this dynamic roster.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
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