Philadelphia Flyers' Matvei Michkov Could Rise in 2024-25 Based on Historical Trends – Hockey Writers – Flyers Prospects

When you're talking about a 19-year-old rookie like Matvei Michkov, someone who isn't familiar with the North American culture, it makes sense why some aren't kidding about his numbers. But this Philadelphia Flyers prospect is no ordinary player. He has a high breathing rate and even his most optimistic point for 2024-25 is out of the water.

Michkov's Work Numbers

In general, a good way to analyze top prospects is to look at their scoring production—high-end players often find a way to come out on top, even if they're serious about defense. Throughout his career, Michkov has crushed the competition, always proving he's ready for that next step.

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Michkov's last time in minor hockey was in 2021-22, a year before he was eligible to be drafted (D-1). Playing in the Junior Hockey League (MHL) of Russia, he ranks first among the leading scorers in points per game (P/G) with 51 points in 28 contests. Although the league has participants in their 20s, he stands above them all.

In his first year of draft eligibility (DY), Michkov's next logical step was the Supreme Hockey League (VHL). It's a professional league consisting mostly of players in their early 20s, but not the best out there. With 10 goals and 14 points in 12 games, Michkov ranks second among forwards with at least 10 games played in P/G—he set historic numbers.

As if the VHL was child's play for him, Michkov also joined the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) where he tallied five points in 13 games in his D-1 campaign. He had 20 points in 30 contests in 2022-23, which puts him in the 89th percentile for P/G among forwards with 10 games played (for future reference, these are percentage requirements). This was the highest P/G scored on a DY in KHL history.

Last season, Michkov upped his production with 41 points in 48 games in the KHL, putting him in the 96th percentile with a 0.85 P/G. This was the highest number ever posted in a season after the draft (D+1), excluding players like Evgeny Kuznetsov, Kirill Kaprizov, Vladimir Tarasenko, and other future stars. It's important to note that Michkov played a good chunk of ice time, but he played a lot for a reason—he was the best young KHL player in history.

Now, we come to Michkov's second season after being drafted (D+2). While there aren't many good comparisons since KHLers rarely put up their numbers, there are a few stars worth looking at to show what they can do in the NHL.

How Top Prospects Performed in Their D+2 NHL Seasons

Four current stars were in the 99th percentile in P/G in the league during their D-1 and DY seasons, such as Michkov, Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes. That's a bit of a cheat since Michkov played most of his time in the KHL (and I'm using the VHL for his DY), but these athletes are competing against those their own age—an unfortunate situation for a Russian star.

Those four finished in the 99th, 99th, 97th, and 68th percentile for NHL P/G score in their respective D+2 campaigns—a 91 percent average. Going by this unscientific projection, that would put Michkov at about 75 points over 82 games in 2024-25. Of course, he is not on the level of McDavid or Crosby and is probably closer to someone like Eichel or Hughes. Still, that's already promising.

Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks had the same total when looking at percentiles. In the HockeyAllsvenskan, a professional league in Sweden but not the best (so, compared to the VHL), he was at 97 percent in P/G during his DY season. Taken fifth overall in 2017 by Vancouver, he lived up to that conference in his D+1 season by finishing in the 99th percentile of the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) P/G—the top league in Sweden and more or less evenly matched. and the KHL.

Michkov at this stage is a better prospect than Pettersson was in my money, as he was ailing with pneumonia but has stellar tracking numbers. Seeing as Michkov has incredible offense, it's encouraging to see that Pettersson finished his D+2 NHL campaign in the 91st percentile in P/G, winning the Calder Trophy in the process.

Adjusting to the NHL Shouldn't Be a Big Problem for Michkov

Even with these examples, it's fair to worry about how Michkov will translate at the NHL level. Again, he has played hockey almost exclusively in Russia and is still young. However, there are a few reasons to feel better about how this culture shift could play out.

First, Michkov has been playing professional hockey for years now. As of 2021-22, he has 103 games played across the VHL and KHL—that's a great streak. Connor Bedard, a member of Michkov's draft class that went first overall, didn't have a single game of professional hockey under his belt until he made his NHL debut in 2023-24. He scored 61 points in 68 contests, finishing in the 89th percentile for P/G—it was a seamless transition, at least offensively. Although not for everyone, top players tend to stand out quickly.

If there is a concern about the cultural aspect, we just talked about Pettersson—he only played in Sweden. The fact that Michkov can't speak English is understandable, but Calder Trophy winners Artemi Panarin (2015-16) and Kaprizov (2020-21) did not. These two went from the 99th percentile in KHL P/G to 98th and 94th in NHL P/G respectively as if the language factor didn't matter.

Even with the numbers and reasons I gave, I'm not saying Michkov will win the Calder Trophy and score 75 points (or more) in 2024-25. But what I am saying is that he definitely has the potential to achieve these things this season as long as he is given the opportunity. There may be hiccups along the way, but his talent is so great that it may not matter—this is a very special player.

Statistics courtesy of QuantHockey