New Jersey Devils' Years of Home Ice Struggles Need to Be Addressed – Hockey Writers – New Jersey Devils

For the most part, the New Jersey Devils beat the ghosts last season. The scoring has improved, they have started faster, and they have improved their defensive efforts.

But since the start of last season, the Devils have lost 26 of their last 44 home contests. Only four of the NHL's 32 teams had multiple home runs last season (Montreal Canadiens, Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks). They have now lost two of three at home to start the 2024-25 campaign, and head coach Sheldon Keefe appeared to be very frustrated after the loss to the Washington Capitals.

Devils Need to Flip the Script

After the contest, Keefe said, “That's two out of three games on the ice that was an unacceptable effort, so we're going to continue to address that…starting with our level of competition. For some reason, we didn't bring the same level of urgency that we brought to our road games here. I'm new here, so I'm still trying to figure out why.”

Even in their record-setting 2022-23 season, the Devils have dropped eight straight at home. It's especially bad since it was preceded by a 13-game winning streak, which gave the Devils a chance. But you'd have to go back to 2021-22 to find a season where the Devils were better at home than on the road. And since 2017-18 where that was true *and* they won more than they lost at home, too.

What is important, however, is that it is still early and there is time for that narrative to change. It's not fair to jump to sweeping conclusions based on three games, and it's important that Keefe acknowledges and addresses the issue.

Diving into the Numbers

In order to try to get a sense of why the struggle took place, some important figures stood out. Firstly, their goalscoring record at home was worse last season. Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid, and Nico Daws combined for a .874 save percentage (SV%) – the worst domestic mark in the league. On the road, that figure was .897% – 16th in the league.

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You'd think that had to do with defense, but the numbers show it was almost exclusively a matter of goals. At home, the Devils faced a minus-20 goal differential despite generating 169 more scoring chances than the opposition, according to Natural Stat Trick) They were actually in the top half of the league in scoring chances blocked, and they did so without one. of their leading managers in Dougie Hamilton for three-quarters of their championships.

Some players last season admitted to holding their own sticks, trying to be perfect in front of the home players. Their shooting percentage at home was 0.81% worse than on the road, which doesn't seem like much, but it adds up to about 10 extra goals. Combine that with 20 fewer save goals than expected at the Prudential Center, and that's 30 points the Devils were held to. In just 41 games, that makes a big difference.

Using a very rough estimate, with league average scoring (at home) and the same shooting at home as on the road, last season's results would have looked completely different:

2023-24 goals per game played (GF/GP): 3.22

2023-24 goals allowed per game played (GA/GP): 3.43

Rate with avg. scoring & shooting averages: 3.39 GF/GP & 3.14 GA/GP

Teams with similar GF/GP and GA/GP stats after adjustment: Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-8), Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8) and Nashville Predators (47-30-5) . The Devils were 38-39-5 instead.

Better Outlook ahead

Thankfully for the Devils, they now sport a new scoring game in Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, whose combined .910 SV% brought the Devils into the top 10 in the league. However, it was .885% at home and .667% in dangerous chances, actually .094% worse than last season. That will obviously change, unless Markstrom and Allen somehow both forget to play their roles entirely. Gotta love small samples.

Professor teaching. pic.twitter.com/qgxMQPNz9N

– New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) October 20, 2024

The Devils have the second highest expected goals percentage (xGF%) at home in the entire NHL this season – 61.57%. They have won 41 more goalscoring chances than the opposition and 13 more dangerous chances. All over 56% of teams last season had 106 points or more in the standings.

If they can play like they've been playing, stay healthy, and get their stars (Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes) to overcome their slow, uncharacteristic start, this Devils team will be fine…even at home.