Is the Columbus Blue Jackets' Early Season Success Bouncing Back? – Hockey Writers – Columbus Blue Jackets

The Columbus Blue Jackets have had a strong start to the season, going 5-3-1 in their first nine games. As of October 31, they sit fifth in the Metropolitan Division standings in both points (11) and fielding percentage (.611). Despite this, they are actually in a playoff spot due to the slow starts of many teams in the Atlantic Division. In fact, they currently sit in third place in the Atlantic, ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. While it's too early to start predicting the playoffs, it's a welcome change for the Blue Jackets to not be sitting at the bottom of the standings at the end of October.

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The Blue Jackets have not made the playoffs since the shortened 2019-2020 season, where they went 33-22-15 and beat the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, only to lose to the Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. first round. Since then, the Blue Jackets' best season was the 2021-2022 season where they went 37-38-7. After a few tough seasons, the team and their fans are desperate for success. So what has changed this season so far? Is their first season success sustainable? Here are two reasons why the Blue Jackets started to get hot, and to see if they can continue.

Franchise-Record Scoring

The Blue Jackets went on to set records for the most goals scored to start a season in franchise history. So far, they have scored 35 goals with an average of 3.89 goals per game. That's four more than the previous record of 31, which took place three seasons ago. So is this team really offensively strong? Yes, yes and no. They currently sit first in the NHL in shooting percentage at 14.21%. While impressive so far, there are concerns about how sustainable this is. For example, their 2-0 win against the New York Islanders had one goal coming from a lucky deflection on a skate and another coming into an empty net.

FIRE the cannon!

The Blue Jackets are on the board thanks to a Damon Severson goal!#CBJ pic.twitter.com/EI92Qi1THx

— FanDuel Sports Network Columbus (@FanDuelSN_CBUS) October 31, 2024

According to MoneyPuck, the Blue Jackets are last in the league in expected goals at 2.63. That means they are scoring goals at a much higher rate than expected. This may be due to the lucky system the Blue Jackets started with. Five of their nine games were against teams playing the second night of back-to-backs. In four of those games, the team played their backup goalie. There is a good chance that the Blue Jackets' high shooting percentage has to do with facing fewer secondary scorers. If those shooting percentages start to dip, the Blue Jackets could quickly start to see their goaltending dry up.

Improved Goal for the Green Jackets

A key improvement for the team this season has been the play of the Blue Jackets' forwards. Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov have both played well so far, stopping 56 of 57 shots over the past two games. Merzlikins ranks 22nd among NHL goaltenders this season in goals saved above expectation (GSAx), posting a 0.8 GSAx through four games. Tarasov isn't far behind with a -0.2 GSAx that puts him 33rd out of 71 hitters this season. In comparison, Merzlikins finished 83rd out of 98 in the GSAx last season, while Tarasov finished 52nd.

Is this net development ongoing? This seems more likely than the Blue Jackets' current goal streak, although the reason may surprise you. The success of the goalies may be, at least in part, due to the improved team defense played in front of them. Merzlikins commented on the game ahead of him after shutting out the Islanders, saying “They helped a lot.” They really work for him. This is our closure.” The team's defense has done a better job of cleaning up rebounds and clearing open opportunities in front of the net that have been a real problem the past few seasons. They also have clean exits and limited defensive curves. All of this seems to be due to a new system and style of play under head coach Dean Evason and hopefully he will remain consistent this season.

Flash in the Pan or New Normal?

Although the scoring rate will drop back to normal (Mathieu Olivier has four goals on 8 shots), the improvement in goals against should hopefully continue. The past three seasons have seen the Blue Jackets allow 297, 298, and a record 329 goals against. This season's improvement has the Blue Jackets at 228 goals, which would be the best. Even if their current scoring rate of 319 goals this season drops, this team could finish with more goals than they face. That hasn't happened since the 2018-19 season when they had 256 goals against and 231 goals against. Those numbers look within reach this season, and if that happens, this Blue Jackets team could be knocking on the door of the playoffs.