5 picks preferred by our gambling expert

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com expert Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, an integrated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the RSM Classic, which starts Thursday in St. Simons Island. Along with Kannon's recommended games, you'll see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that includes both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf tournaments where you can win cash and prizes for each round and tournament.

Fall is over, and it could be your PGA Tour card.

Yes, this week's RSM Classic in St. Simons Island, Georgia at Sea Island Resort, and the final event of the FedEx Cup Fall season. Players who find themselves outside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup Fall standings at the end of this week's tournament will not receive full exemption status on the Tour in 2025.

Here are the players, in order of current ranking, on both sides of the bubble. Sami Valimaki is not in the field this week in the RSM Classic.

120 – David Skinns
121 – Sami Valimaki
122 – Sam Ryder
123 – Zac Blair
124 – Joel Dahmen
125 – Wesley Bryan
126 – Henrik Norlander
127 – Daniel Berger
128 – Hayden Springer
129 – Pierceson Coody
130 – SH Kim

From a handicap perspective, it is interesting to note that two weeks ago, Austin Eckroat became your winner in the World Wide Technology Championship – and he was already fully exempted in 2025 to the tournament, sitting among the top 50 in the ranking. He had no more pressure to perform. Last week in Bermuda, Rafael Campos entered this week ranked 147th in the rankings. He was definitely playing with more encouragement and need. The point is, we can do our best to play the psychologist on the side but it is difficult to disable motivation, attitude, stress, etc. Sure, there are cases that tend to stand out and have stood the test of time historically in disability, but here in particular. , trying to predict the performance of golfers in a given week, based solely on where they sit in the FedEx Cup standings, is unreliable.

This doesn't mean I ignore it when we get to these points in the golf season. No, I'm not ignoring you, but it's like a “must win” game in NFL Football. Just because a team must win doesn't mean it will. I often say, if you “have to win” you don't have to be that good. A person would not be in such a situation if they were really good. So, relying on a player sitting 128th in this week's standings to suddenly flip a switch and play that much better to get himself into the top 125 is not where I want to base my handicap.

The basis of my handicap will start with the golf course and what skills may be most important to success. Here at Sea Island, we have two courses, the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course. Each player will play the Plantation Course once, either on Thursday or Friday, while the Seaside Course will host three of the four rounds. Both are short, par 70 courses, just over 7,000 yards. The Plantation Course tends to play about a shot and a half easier than the Seaside Course. I actually played the Seaside Course and without any wind, the course plays easily. The highways are wide by Touring standards but placement and Driving Accuracy proved to be a key ingredient here in St. Simmons. I also looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Control Gained, Birdies or Better Gained, Par 4s measuring between 400-450 yards, Closeness to the hole from 100-175 yards and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass).

On the corresponding courses, it is exactly the same as last week in Port Royal: short track, beach, Bermudagrass, etc. Last week we used Pebble Beach, Colonial CC, and Waialae CC. I played those courses again, Port Royal, along with TPC Southwind, El Cardonal at Diamante, and Harbor Town, home of the RBC Heritage.

It's also worth noting that a significant number of the players on the field this week live in the Sea Island area, practice here regularly or go to school nearby. Below, there are a few players this week who are very familiar with this area.

If you came here looking for who will finish second this week, you're in the right place as we now have the runner up for two weeks in a row in Carson Young and Andrew Novak. Let's see if we can close the season with one better.

At the time of writing I have not seen the pairs for this tournament. I recommend checking where the release is as it can be important depending on the wind and possible bias. Right now, it looks like the wind will blow all day Thursday in the 20 mph range. It should die on Friday but probably in the afternoon rather than the morning. Just a guess, but Thursday's first time on the easy Plattation Course would be the right draw.

Seamus Power (34-1)

It was a great turn of events for Power, who finished twice in 11th, 13th, and 23rd last week in Bermuda, the tournament he won in 2022. His last event of the summer was FedEx St. Jude. Championship at TPC Southwind, one of our affiliated courses, where he finished 10th. Here at the RSM Classic, he went 5-4 in his last two visits. He also finished third at Waialae (Sony Open) and sixth at Harbor Town. Short, off-shore, precision-based courses seem to be in his wheelhouse. Over the past 36 rounds, the Powers are really solid, ranking in the top 40 or better in every stat I've considered this week.

Justin Lower (50-1)

We've talked before about promoting disability and mental health. Lower was upset a few weeks ago on the podium and talked about how difficult it is for a player on the PGA Tour and how the new rules make it even more difficult. It seems like that motivated him as he ended up finishing second that week in Los Cabos and then finished fifth last week in Bermuda. I will continue to ride the hot hand here. He is an excellent wedge player, one of the best in the field from 100-150 yards, makes a ton of birdies, and is No. 1 in the last 36 rounds on the 400-450 yard Par 4s. He is also ranked 29th in Tour in SG: Placing.

Matt Kuchar (60-1)

Kuchar is like an early Seamus Power-slash-Justin-Lower-type player. Doesn't go far, hits straight, magical short game, good putter, etc. Won at Harbor Town, won at Waialae, multiple top-10s at Colonial. He is exactly the type of player we would expect to be successful on this type of golf course. And of course, you call the area of ​​St. Simons by home, so he is very familiar with this golf course. Current form looks good too with Kuchar holding four top 15 scores in his first seven matches.

Daniel Berger (70-1)

We'll give him one shot and it could be the last one for a minute as he's currently sitting out looking for 127th place in the FedEx Cup Fall. Again, we've talked about this before and I'm not backing my entire handicap on Berger's need to play well to get to 125 or better, but I do like the fact that he's a proven veteran with the experience to cook up pressure like a major tournament. , Ryder Cups and Tour wins. That doesn't hurt. But everything else makes sense too. He's won at Colonial, he's won at Pebble Beach, he's won twice at TPC Southwind, and between Harbor Town and Waialae, he has three top-15 tournaments and two top-10 finishes. If the putter is holding up this week, it has to go well, and Bermudagrass has always been his best surface.

Michael Kim (75-1)

Kim's only Tour win came at the 2018 John Deere Classic – another short course with a irrigated course – which is nothing like what we have here. And I like his last three starts, finishing fifth, 30th, and 12th last week at Port Royal. In the last 36 rounds, Kim is 18th in Greens in Regulation Beregulation, 16th for SG: Approach, and is 23rd in Birdies or Better Gained. He has placed sixth at Colony, 20th at Waialae, and 11th at Pebble Beach.

Chirp Golfers picks this week

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