Should The Maple Leafs Keep Marner or Tavares? – Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

After this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to make perhaps the most impactful decision for their future: should they re-sign star defenseman Mitch Marner, former captain John Tavares, both, or not? With the Maple Leafs situation in turmoil, management must evaluate each player's impact and come up with a list of pros and cons to make sure they make the right decision. With that in mind, here's a look at the best course of action for the Maple Leafs.

Evaluating the Effect of Marner on Maple Leaves

Since being drafted fourth in 2015, Marner has established himself as one of the best players in the league. Since 2018-19, he has scored 533 points in 436 games – a year-to-year pace for a 100-point season. In addition, his base stats have been consistently high. Outside of his rookie season, he has yet to record a season in which his expected goals share (xGF%) was below 52.5%. In fact, over the past five seasons, his xGF% has hovered around 57%.

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This season, Marner has been the best player for the Maple Leafs. He leads the team with 24 points, is fourth on the team in xGF% (56.81%), and is second in both scoring chance share (SCF%) and high-danger scoring chance (HDCF%). His xGF% ranks 13th in the league among forwards who have played at least 250 minutes of 5v5 hockey, ahead of Mikko Rantanen, Sam Reinhart, and David Pastrnak.

He excelled on both special teams, with 10 points a man and a shorthanded goal. According to IneffectiveMath, the Maple Leafs also produce 10% more offense than the league average on the power play when Marner is on the ice and allow 1% less offense than the league average on the penalty kill.

The only problem with choosing Marner over Tavares is the cost. At 27 years old, he should produce elite for at least the next six seasons or so. He produced significant numbers for William Nylander, and Nylander was given an eight-year, $11.5 million AAV contract last season. It's not unreasonable to think that Marner's next contract will push 12 million AAVs and be of great length. The caveat is that the NHL salary cap will increase significantly, so it shouldn't be as big of a hit as it is now.

John Tavares is Cheap, But Has Little Impact

Meanwhile, Tavares is in the final year of his seven-year, $11 million AAV contract. He was productive for the Maple Leafs, scoring nearly a point per game each season while providing the team with strong leadership. He's also sported an xGF% between 52% and 56% every season since being signed in 2018-19, including 54.97%, which ranks seventh on the team this season. He's been a reliable force on the power play but not great on the penalty kill.

The problem with Tavares is his price. At 34 years old, there has been a noticeable decline in his velocity throughout his contract. Yes, his impact is still strong, but aging curves usually show that, with the exception of an outfielder, there is a decline in play at this point in a player's career. Considering veteran Steven Stamkos was recently given a contract worth $8 million a year — and that the two have similar points — it's reasonable to assume that Tavares' next contract will match that amount.

Maple Leafs Should Prioritize Marner

If I were general manager Brad Treliving, I would prioritize extending Marner's time in Toronto as it would be impossible to re-sign both players. The criticism he has received from Maple Leafs fans has become more and more a result of the frustration of the managers who signed four players for more than $10 million than Marner deserves an eight-figure salary.

He has established himself as one of the best defenders in the league, and there are very few players who can claim to be better at that position. Tavares, on the other hand, is aging — and showing it — all while taking more money than he's worth. The pay cut he would have to take to stay in Toronto is probably too much for him to stay, so the Maple Leafs would be better off letting him go to another team that will pay him $8 million-plus. ask.