Avalanche on Right Track Despite Slow Start to 2024-25 Season – Hockey Writers – Colorado Avalanche
The sky is falling in Colorado, but should it be? After 27 games, the Colorado Avalanche have a record of 14-13-0 and a points percentage (PTS%) of .519. That puts them right on the edge of the Western Conference playoff race, a stressful position for a team that has entered every season as a Stanley Cup contender for the past half-decade. Talk about the future direction of the organization has been volatile, with every faction within the fanbase laying down their flag as the finger-pointing escalates.
However, the club's fortunes did not decline after October and November which were highlighted by a long list of injuries and poor goalscoring. Since starting the season with four straight losses while being outscored 25-13, the Avalanche have gone 14-9-0 in their next 23 games by two goals and are currently two points behind the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference's standings. second wildcard position.
Related: 5 Key Avalanche Takeaways at Quarter-Mark of 2024-25 Season
While it is understandably difficult to reconcile at the moment, perhaps greater optimism from all sides is justified given the circumstances. Let's dive in.
Avalanche Combat Injury Crisis
Only the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have collected a greater Cap Hit for Injured Players (CHIP) than the Avalanche in the first two months of the season. Most of that number is due to the prolonged absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog, whose return time remains uncertain and has changed several times since undergoing knee surgery in the spring of 2023.
Additionally, Jonathan Drouin (22), Valeri Nichushkin (17; suspended), Colton (17), and Lehkonen (12) have all missed double-digit games this season, depriving the Avalanche of part of their regular lineup. the top nine. . Nichushkin and Lehkonen are both back in the lineup, but Miles Wood has since been listed as month-to-month with an injury and both Drouin and Colton remain out.
Avalanche Targets a Clear Weak Spot
Despite the flurry of injuries affecting the Avalanche's line, the team's goaltending situation is the biggest concern after the third quarter of the campaign. Alexander Georgiev (17 games played), Justus Annunen (11), Scott Wedgewood (two), Trent Miner (one), and the suspended Kaapo Kahkonen (one) all appeared in the Avalanche crease with mixed results.
The quintuplet collectively owns a .857 save percentage (SV%) and has allowed 14 more goals than expected (GSAx) according to Evolving Hockey, both of which are the worst team-based marks in the league. It's the worst goal scored by the Avalanche since Cale Makar joined the team in the 2019 Playoffs, and it's a big reason for their precarious position in the standings.
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The trade that saw Wedgewood come to Colorado in exchange for Annunen could provide a break from the Avalanche's goaltending woes. He hasn't been a great hitter in recent seasons (.907 SV% since 2021-22) but that mark comes in slightly higher than Georgiev and Annunen's (both .903) during the same period, so the situation probably won't be too bad.
The two main issues with the deal are that Wedgewood is 32 years old and has never played more than 37 games in a single season (he did that in 2021-22), but the transfer should be considered a huge success even if it is a one-year active break. The other part of the tandem is well discussed, but expect the noise to continue until the position is addressed with a solution beyond a band-aid.
Avalanche Driving Play in Five-on-Five
Let's turn to the positive. Despite losing a number of key players, many of whom hovered around the top six at times, the Avalanche have consistently been the dominant team at 5-on-5 in terms of their shot share and scoring opportunities.
| Statistics (%) | Snow | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 44.8% | 25 of |
| Shots | 53.7% | 4th |
| Expected goals | 52.1% | In the 7th |
| Chances of hitting | 55.3% | Second time |
| Very Dangerous Chances | 50.9% | 14 |
Although the Avalanche are led offensively, their results in five-on-five are largely driven by defense unless their 102 goals against (third-worst) reflects this. They rank third in shots per 60 minutes (SA/60) and seventh in scoring chances per-60 (SCA/60), but are in the middle of the pack in expected goals (xGA/60) and high-risk chances (HDCA/60) if compared to 60. They rank 17th or better in each offensive offensive category, and are second in scoring chances per-60 (SCF/60).
Others may identify a share of the most dangerous opportunities and highlight it as an area that needs improvement. However, the team sits within the top half of the league and (surprise, surprise) has the league's worst SV% (HDSV%) at five-on-five (.721). It's lazy to point the finger at scoring in most cases but the difference between expected goals (seventh) and actual goals (25th) tells much, if not all, of the story.
The rest of the Avalanche schedule is under control
Although the Avalanche are still scheduled to play eight of their 55 games against Western Conference powerhouses the Minnesota Wild (four), the Winnipeg Jets (three), and the Vegas Golden Knights (one), their remaining schedule is less punishing.
According to Tankathon's strength of schedule metric, the Avalanche's off-season schedule sits in the bottom half by difficulty (19th). This is good news as the Edmonton Oilers (15th), Calgary Flames (14th), Vancouver Canucks (ninth), and Los Angeles Kings (seventh) have all faced above-average slates in opponent win percentages and will jockey with Colorado for the other two wildcard spots. .
Some may see the season as a lost cause and look to the 2025-26 season, but there are reasons to hope that luck is around the corner. The team's forward line will be close to full strength at some point, and the goal will be considered in some way. They have been the better team in most games despite the conditions, so a quick turnaround is on the cards.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.
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