Capitals & Kings Dubois-for-Kuemper Trade Analysis – Hockey Writers – NHL Trade Analysis

On what was expected to be a boring Wednesday, the NHL saw two big trades in the defense market take place. The Los Angeles Kings traded Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for goaltender Darcy Kuemper. Hockey Writers Jesse Courville-Lynch believes this trade makes sense, and the two teams agree, providing a change of scenery for the two former stars.

What Makes Kings Move

The Kings had high expectations for the 2023-24 season, mainly due to their acquisition of Dubois. In a blockbuster deal that sent several key players to the Winnipeg Jets, Los Angeles expects Dubois to continue developing into an NHL star. After the trade, he was extended to an eight-year contract worth $68 million. After scoring 16 goals and 40 points in 82 games this past season, it's clear he wasn't a good fit in Los Angeles.

Related: What's Behind Pierre-Luc Dubois' Struggles This Season?

On top of that, the Kings struggled in the net. Both Cam Talbot and David Rittich had solid advanced stats, but they were inconsistent, often giving up four to five goals a game. While Rittich is signed for one more season, Talbot is a free agent this offseason, and this trade could pave the way for him to join a new team.

Although Kuemper struggled this past season, going 13-14-3 with a 3.31 goals-against average (GAA) and .890 save percentage (SV%), he should still be considered a capable NHL starting goaltender. He spent time with the Kings during the 2017-18 season, going 10-1-3 with a 2.10 GAA and .932 SV%. He won the 2022 Stanley Cup as the starting goaltender for the Colorado Avalanche and has established himself as a top 10 goaltender in the NHL at his best. This past season was the first time he finished with a sub-.900 SV% since the 2017-18 season, which is the result of a lot of work. So, in a strong defensive system, his numbers will improve.

The key difference between Kuemper and Talbot is the former's ability to limit rebounds and save dangerous scoring opportunities. Kuemper was one of the top scorers on the penalty kill this past season, but he was more effective against shots around the net and into space. This marks a major turnaround for Los Angeles, whose season ended due to their struggles to prevent goals around the net, largely a result of Talbot's performance issues. By selecting Kuemper as their starter, the Kings aim to find a reliable and promising goaltender in hopes of making a deep playoff run.

What Makes Capitals Move

The reason for the Capitals is easy to understand. If you ignore Dubois' seven years left on his max contract, they're bringing in a 25-year-old center with 40+ goals up top. With Nicklas Backstrom likely to resume his NHL career, at least anytime soon, the team is in dire need of a first-line center, and Dubois was the most logical way to get one.

Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan spoke to the media after the trade, saying, “This acquisition brings a talented 25-year-old with the potential to become a top-level center in the NHL. With his size, exceptional skating, and high hockey IQ, we are confident he will thrive in our organization with increased responsibility and opportunity.” There is no doubt that Dubois fills a need for Washington, so adding him outside of a valuable asset makes sense in the eyes of Capitals management.

He has spent time with three teams in his past four seasons and has struggled to find a place on any line. Also, he has had to learn three different programs while having multiple head coaches put him in many different line combinations. These struggles were more prevalent this past season in Los Angeles as they had two coaches and didn't play with the lineup for more than 180 minutes. Now in Washington, he is expected to play alongside star Alexander Ovechkin and earn a consistent role on the team's roster.

In Los Angeles, Dubois often found himself playing on the third line as a scouting center. He kept getting pushed around the list, which prevented him from settling down and relaxing. Given this, it is almost certain that he will step it up next season. Unlike Los Angeles, which has several top-six centers, he will face less competition in Washington, giving him a great opportunity to start next season strong. This should allow him to return to his natural style of play and develop into the 30+ goal, 70+ point center that Los Angeles has been waiting for.

This exchange of two struggling players has worried many fans considering the way they played last season. While these issues are fair, both players will improve, and their new teams are great situations to be thrown into. Whether it's Kuemper joining the defensive sound system or Dubois finally getting a chance as a first-line center, expect both of these players to play again in their 2024-25 seasons.