The Phillies Lock Down Another Part of Their League's Best Rotation

This time last year, the Phillies faced long-term uncertainty about their rotation. Aaron Nola was a free agent after the season, Zack Wheeler would follow a year later, and the only forward with a guaranteed contract past the 2024 season was Taijuan Walker. This time around, their rotation also leads the league in WAR, but much of that future anger has been curtailed. The Phillies re-signed Nola and extended Wheeler during the offseason, and now have left-hander Christopher Sánchez, a 2023 sensation left this offseason, at least four more years, with two potential team options. his until the 2030 season.

The 27-year-old Sánchez, whom the Phillies acquired in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Curtis Mead back in 2019, has a 2.67 ERA/2.49 FIP over 15 starts this season. That's good for 2.6 WAR, fourth best among National League pitchers. Sánchez will receive $22.5 million guaranteed over the next four seasons, buying out all of his arbitration years, and a $2 million signing bonus. Not bad for someone with just one full year of service going into 2024. The two club options come with $1 million buyouts each in 2029 and '30, bringing the minimum contract value to $22.5 million. If the Phillies pick up those two options, for $14 million and $15 million, respectively, and if Sánchez stays in the top-10 in Cy Young voting during those option years, his salaries could rise to $16 million in 2029 and and $19 million'. 30. That puts the maximum total value of the extension at $56.5 million over six years.

If you didn't see Sánchez coming, you're definitely not alone. Mead continued to be one of Tampa Bay's top prospects — he was still ranked fourth in the Rays' roster and 32nd overall in our preseason rankings — while Sánchez returned from the COVID-layoff battling Triple-A hitters. Change-up pitchers with command problems are often overlooked, and Sánchez's coffee cup in 2021 or his big carafe in 2022 suggested a pitcher who would become an important part of the upper rotation a year later. The Phillies didn't trust him going into 2023; he lost weight in the offseason, and the team intended to give him only one starting spot in April after the White Sox doubleheader interrupted the rest of the rotation. From last August's story by Matt Gelb of Athletic:

Rob Thomson was clear with Sánchez: This was one start, and one start only. Sánchez, who missed much of spring training with various injuries, later said he appreciated the manager's honesty. He knew where he stood.

Before the call ended, Brian Kaplan had a question. He is the team's assistant coach and director of field development. The Phillies had floated an offseason deal for Sánchez, a lanky lefty from the Dominican Republic, and it went awry. Sánchez should have added a lot. But the long illness wore him down. He lost more than 15 pounds. He was demoted in the spring when he failed to make appearances as the Phillies tried to fill out the back of their rotation.

In fact, even Sánchez didn't manage Lehigh Valley last year, but he accomplished one goal the team set for him; by the summer, he had gained 25 pounds. That coincides with a slight chance of grabbing fifth place in the game. The Phillies used Matt Strahm in the role early in the season, but were concerned about his innings count. Dylan Covey had a pair of starts but was bombed by the Braves in his latest, while Bailey Falter, who had been in the rotation before, was in the minors and out with a neck injury. So Sánchez got the nod on June 17 against the A's; he went four scoreless innings and allowed one hit. His loose changeup — which looks like the wrong forkball in the world — clicked, and he didn't give the Phillies a reason to remove him from the rotation. Even Michael Lorenzen's discovery didn't cost him his job. The Phillies happily went with six players instead of denying Sánchez's services.

In the first half of this season, Sánchez proved that his performance last year was not a mistake. He has now had a full calendar year, throwing 175 1/3 innings with 157 strikeouts with a 3.08 ERA in 31 starts. He's unlikely to keep up his home run avoidance rate (just one allowed this season), but even if his home run rate were to take a big step back and cause his ERA to jump into the low 3.00s, he'd still be around. appropriate for his area of ​​circulation.

So, what does the projection look like? Suffice it to say that ZiPS was not happy about his entry into 2023.

That is not a tragedy; with those numbers, he would have been a capable spot starter/long shortstop. But it was not even a shadow of what he had achieved in the previous year. So let's develop his current, sunniest prediction. how sunny is it? Let's say Tom Glavine comes from the top ten on his comps list and leave it at that.

Most teams would be happy to get this projection from their number. 2 the beginning. From your number. 4, this is like waking up one morning and discovering that your garden hose is somehow making your own IPA. Based on these numbers, ZiPS projects Sánchez is worth $27.3 million over a four-year extension, making this a decent amount from the Phils' perspective. The deal gets even better for Philadelphia when you look at the age of the pick; ZiPS projects Sánchez's value for 2029 and '30 to be worth a combined $41 million in free agency, $11 million more than the base price for those years if the Phillies pick up his options.

That leaves Ranger Suárez as the only key member of the rotation who may be out for a long time. He's set to hit free agency after the 2025 season, and given his upside this year, he probably won't come cheap if the Phillies try to extend him; The six-year deal is worth $135 million, according to ZiPS. Having Sánchez until the end of the decade at such a large price would give Philadelphia the flexibility to shell out more money to keep Suárez.

Before we left, I've been looking for an excuse to project the Phillies rotation, so I'm not letting this opportunity slip by! Using innings allocation from our depth charts, ZiPS currently projects Phillies starting pitchers to accumulate 8.6 more WAR over the course of the season, which would give their starters a combined 22.7 WAR for the entire 2024 campaign. Here's how that compares to the best early sticks in the five-man swing era, which I arbitrarily start in 1980:

That subtle spirit. Based on this projection, the Phillies will finish the season with the best rotation in baseball in over a decade, since the 2013 Tigers. And with the Sánchez extension coming after the Nola and Wheeler deals, Philadelphia has a chance to keep the party going for several years.