The Nationals have been on the sidelines of the postseason picture for most of the season but are gearing up to approach the trade deadline as a franchise, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers for both potential free agents and signed/controlled players for just one more season, according to the report. The Nats' group of upcoming free agents includes an outfielder Jesse Winkeron the left Patrick Corbinthe right breaker Dylan Florostruggling Joey Gallo and those currently injured Trevor Williams. Even more interesting will be the outfielder Lane Thomasset up a man Hunter Harvey and close Kyle Finneganeach of whom is subject to arbitration through the 2025 season.
The vibe in DC is high right now following the emergence of a high-profile prospect James Wood and an All-Star selection at shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its last 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there is no hope of getting back to the top of the division, and in the Wild Card race, the Nats are 5.5 games out of third place with six teams to go to get into the division. chaos.
The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that began in 2021 with a trade Max Scherzer, Trea Turner again Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued in the summer of 2022 with a deadline blockbuster Juan Soto to San Diego for a package of five young players led by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling short-term pieces at this year's deadline is not a sign that the plan has failed or is truly set back; For much of the season, the Nats have appeared ahead of schedule but have now settled into the type of position they are expected to have most heading into the 2024 campaign.
Among Washington's rental players, Winker stands out as the most productive healthy option. He returned to form after seasons plagued by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 off-season. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners player is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker's 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he has struck out at a manageable 22.3% clip.
Winker has struggled with the lineup for a while, but the Nats gave him 80 games against southpaws this season and he still held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a massive .358 average on balls in play and comes despite a massive 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably won't be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he's punishing righties like he always does when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a base salary of $2MM, making him an affordable option for any team looking for a quality lefty bat to add to their DH/outfield mix.
Floro, 33, is in the midst of a great rebounding season. He is on a one-year, $2.25MM contract and has pitched 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a few percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a few points better than par. Floro's games have a low rating of 50.4% as well. However, he's yet to allow even one home run this season, and it's not sustainable for any pitcher to see all of his fly-balls land in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize the homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a strong arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still attract a lot of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.
Corbin's $35MM salary will offset any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay nearly the entire amount. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went well, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and emerged as the season's primary arm en route to Washington's Cinderella World Series. He has posted a 5.60 ERA since then, including a 5.49 mark per 100 frames this year.
That said, the veteran has been playing well lately. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA going back to Memorial Day weekend and has posted a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames in his five starts. A team looking for veteran innings in the top five could look to Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.
If healthy, Williams could stand as the clearest and most desirable recruiting piece the Nats can offer. He made 11 starts, and although he only averaged five frames per appearance, Williams logged a clean 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. Like Floro, he's been very lucky with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn't continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and could be a viable trade option. He has been out since the beginning of June with a muscle strain in his arm.
Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling through the worst levels of his career before suffering a hamstring injury. He is hitting .164/.285/.321 with a 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that streak and Gallo's injury, it's hard to envision any trade value even if he's healthy enough to return before July 30. He's more of a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Looking at the Nationals' most manageable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw widespread interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to put together, depending on how the Nats bid for him. At last year's deadline, Washington valued Thomas as an everyday outfielder, while other clubs viewed him as a team player.
That view from other clubs will not be different in 2024. Thomas hasn't hit his best yet, but he's cutting down on bad numbers in 2024. his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute threat to southpaw pitchers, and is perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players for average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — despite being caught seven times. He's making $5.45MM this season and will owe more in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency after 2025.
Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency through the 2025-26 offseason. Finnegan saved 23 games and posted an orderly 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He averaged 97.4 mph in his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a 42.7% ground ball rate. After a rough start to his order, Finnegan has been solid in his walks, striking out just 5.8% over his last 32 innings.
Harvey has arguably been more likable for most of the season, though the latest bad bump could change that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half of Finnegan's $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/groundball rates have been better than the two for most of the current campaign.
Some recent struggles have raised Harvey's ERA to 4.40 – more than two runs above the 2.08 mark he posted in June. He's scored 14 runs over his last 12 2/3 innings. During that time, he walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his average in the first two months) and was tagged with 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a long injury history — Harvey has 166 2/3 career innings despite starting in 2019 — that could be a concern among bullpen clubs. But affordable salary, an extra year of control, a 98.1 mph heater and a K-BB profile should all generate interest.
Another term to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief and is manageable through 2025. Law inspired 21.2% of the opposition against a 6.2% turnout rate but has been largely inconsistent since his first campaign in 2016. He's making $1.5MM this season and could be a middle-of-the-pack arm for a team looking for cheap ways to deepen the 'pen.
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