This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs weren't expecting a trade at the deadline. President of baseball Jed Hoyer confirmed as much in an interview with reporters just before tonight's game against the Brewers.
Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward the future. “Where we are now, I have to say that only goes to 2024 – unless things change next week – we probably won't make many moves that only help us this year.,” said Chicago's baseball ops leader (link via ESPN's Jesse Rogers). “If the movement helps us in 2025 and beyond I think we are in a very good position.“
Although Hoyer left open the caveat that the situation could change this week, there is not much confusion about how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke candidly about the group “bad position” about this season. “We just dug a hole that didn't work well for two months. That does not affect the way I look at the organization or the way I look at things going forward but it does affect 2024,” Hoyer said.
It is clear that the Cubs will not pursue free agents. Hoyer didn't call the Chicago method a buy or sell. That leaves room for trying to acquire team-controlled MLB talent beyond this season. While that hasn't happened before (the Reds' acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets deal Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite falling out of contention), it's rare. The Cubs will need to beat motivated teams to get those players in order to make a potential playoff push this summer and next season.
Chicago's farm system is considered one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff ammunition to make a major player deal, but the best outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer played down any suggestion of a total layoff, saying “it won't be an option so (no) point to go hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely that they will use key parts under contract or team management this season (eg Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Putting forward 2025 would normally put the team's lease on the table, but the Cubs don't have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (his contract contains a $2.5MM buyout of the $10MM matching option) and recent minor league signing Jorge López they are the only real rentals. Hendricks sports a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. Although he has played better of late after a poor start to the season, there will be little interest. The Cubs could try to pay almost the entire contract to get a trade partner. Hendricks also has full non-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five with his current team) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in long relief. That strong run prevention isn't supported by average strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option, there is likely limited interest in the veteran left-hander.
Cody Bellinger he has the option to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He had a good but unusual season, hitting .269/.331/.410 in 344 plate appearances. That would be a tough contract to land even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a few weeks ago with a broken finger.
If the Cubs wanted to turn things around in 2025, they would be in for a very quiet deadline. But even if they can't move long-term pieces, Chicago can get deals for manageable defensive players this offseason. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox are eyeing a starter Jameson Taillon, which will make $18MM per year by 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also received interest in the third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. again Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25 years old, is under the control of the club until 2028. He will be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cut to solve the problems of next season. The Cubs certainly don't have the financial pressure to move him, but they may be willing to move on if another team takes a regular look at Morel. Morel is a good player with great power up top who has never found a home defensively. Chicago has tried and failed in the second division and in all of the previous seasons. They gave him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his superior power will work in the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast Outs Above Average each gave him the poorest marks during his time at the hot corner.
This has also not been a good season for Morel at the plate. Although he has 18 homers, he is hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It's a step down from Morel's .241/.311/.471 career line this season. While that's obviously wrong, it does argue for some interesting developments from a procedural perspective. Morel upped his walk rate by a few points while cutting his strikeout impressively. After hitting over 30% of plate appearances in his first two seasons, he has struck out 23.8% of the time this year. An uncontrollably low .221 average on balls in play kept that from getting better results.
Even if the Cubs expect Morel's poor performance to be normalized by his high average on balls in play, the lack of defensive ability makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs may be hoping to replace third base with last year's first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don't have much in the way of temporary alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they were probably counting on him Miles Mastrobuoni again Patrick Wisdom covering the position throughout the season.
Lambs should be open to giving to anyone in their pen. Neris has managed the ninth inning since then Adbert Alzolay he went down with the weight of an arm. The offseason signee has been rocking, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that's two runs this year because of his control issues. The 35-year-old righty is making a $9MM salary and has the same option for next year. That is currently a team option but will convert to a player option if Neris gets in another 24 games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs probably won't want Neris back at that price point. They would likely be happy to find trade partners, but the possibility of being tied up in a $9MM player option if Neris hits his trade mark could make other teams wary. There is little risk involved with Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents for a low 50.6% average in 34 innings. He is making a $1.5MM salary and is subject to arbitration in 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, posted a 2.04 ERA while striking out about 26% of opponents in 35 1/3 frames.
Whether the Cubs get a compelling enough offer to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. Not completely buried in the Wild Card standings, they sit 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four teams to make the jump, the front office decided they were best to make the postseason. How willing they are to reshape the program with the '25 campaign in mind will be one of the big questions next week.
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