The Rays' Parade of Trades Now Includes Isaac Paredes

At best, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the edge of their respective Wild Card races, and while both are busy ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, they are determined to improve. because down the road is this season. On Sunday, the two teams met to trade club-controlled third basemen, Isaac Paredes to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay and prospects Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.

Paredes, 25, is no stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to the Tigers on July 31, 2017 — while still in A-ball — on the sidelines. Jeimer Candelario in place of Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being traded to the Rays in April 2022, he has developed into an effective middle hitter. After earning MVP support with his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) performance last year, he made his first All-Star team this year, and is currently hitting .245/ .357/ .435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.

Despite his output, Paredes doesn't hit the ball much. His 85 mph average exit rate is just in the fourth percentile, while his 26.1% strikeout rate is in the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel rate is in the 26th percentile. But Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and especially at fielding them into the left field corner, at Tropicana Field which is closer to home plate (315 feet) than any current ballpark, as balls hit Fenway Park's Green Monster (310 feet). with a 37-foot high wall) and the Minute Maid's Crawford boxes (315 feet from a 21-foot high wall) both require considerable height to get out. Entering Sunday, Paredes' 46 fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the major league lead, with all 16 of his hits coming that way.

Here's a look at his batting charts for the past two seasons:

As of the start of 2022, Paredes has the highest number of home runs in the majors, but note that he's not exactly on fire:

Santander's 67 homers led the majors in that span, though his rate is 41.1%.

“Isaac Paredes Keeps It Up,” Ben Clemens wrote last month while examining his batted ball tendencies. The catch now is that Wrigley Field is 355 feet down the left field line, so one has to wonder how well Paredes' production will translate to the Windy City. Via Statcast, 25 of last year's 31 and 11 of 16 this year would have come out of Wrigley, but if some of those are normal fly balls, his numbers will be hit.

Defensively, Paredes is more or less average at third base, and has some experience at second and first; he has even played shortstop in a pinch. He's making $3.4 million this year as a Super Two, so he has three years of control left.

With 2.9 WAR this year and 4.3 WAR last year, Paredes looks to be an upgrade on Morel, who is also 25 but has struggled so much this year that he even made my list of Recovery Rate Killers. He's 0.1 wins below replacement after netting just 1.5 WAR last year.

Expanding on what I wrote for the Killers list less than two weeks ago, Morel's 18 home runs surpassed last year's mark of 26, but almost everything else about his game has gone backwards. He is hitting just .199/.302/.373 with a 92 wRC+, down 27 points from last year. While he lowered his strikeout rate from 31.0% to 24.5%, he also shed 2.3 mph in average exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.8). His .242 xBA and .451 xSLG are exactly the same as last year's numbers, and his .346 xwOBA is a six-point improvement, but while his wOBA exceeds his xwOBA by seven points in 2023, his real production is points 47 without him. an expected sign this season.

Maybe it's just bad luck, but Morel's extreme draw rate (48.5%) could be a factor, especially given that he pulls a lot of balls down the field. Righties across the majors are hitting a combined .219 and slugging .262 on grounders, but Morel is at .151 AVG/.164 SLG. Defensively, he ranks last in FRV (-9), tied for third worst in DRS (-5), and is seventh in UZR (-2.4).

That's not very promising, but maybe the Rays can get Morel to lift the ball with greater consistency and into the left field corner à la Paredes. He's cheap, making just $767,000 this year, and has one year left before he's eligible for compensation. But he may not even be able to play regularly at third base for long, as 21-year-old Junior Caminero, the Rays' top prospect (and No. 3 overall), may be called up soon. Morel is versatile, with recent experience at all three outfield positions, second base, and even shortstop.

The Rays also got two chances to trade Paredes. Of the two, the 26-year-old Bidge has the more major league experience, despite making just four appearances spanning 3.1 innings earlier this month. A 12th-round pick out of Harvard in 2019, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty has dealt with injuries during his professional career, including a torn labrum in his hip in 2021 and an oblique strain earlier this year. Because of the speed advantage this year, he dominated when available; in 13.1 innings at Triple-A Iowa, he struck out 20 (41.7%) while allowing just three hits and six walks. On Board as a prospect for 40 FV. Here's what Eric Longenhagen had to say when I asked him about Bidge today:

Bidge sat 88-92 at Harvard… but had a spike in the 92-96 mph range in the bullpen after being recruited. Over the past few seasons, Bidge's things have slowed down; there were times when he sat 92-94 and others (like recently) when he sat 97-99. He's dealt with injuries and craziness at times, but in 2024 Bigger changed his rubber and looks more comfortable than ever. After starting the year in the IL, he threw hard and kept his walk in good shape. If the changes in Bidge's performance lead to an actual increase in strikeouts, then he will be a great big league reliever. His upper-80s cutter and mid-80s sweeper give him two more above-average pitches (the cutter is better). If the strikes are a small sample blip, then he will be limited to areas with a very low rate during his Rays period.

The 22-year-old Johnson is a huge prospect, both literally (he's listed at 6-foot-6, 205 pounds) and figuratively (he has a 40+ FV rating). A 2023 15th-round pick out of Ball State, he split his first professional season between the Cubs' A-level Myrtle Beach and High-A South Bend affiliates, posting a 3.54 ERA and 2.73 FIP with a 32.5 strikeout rate % in 61 innings. , usually moving three or four times at a time in a first or tandem role. Here's what Eric had to say about Johnson:

Johnson's speed has picked up and he looks stronger now than he did last year at Ball State. In fact, Johnson has been throwing very hard during the 2024 season. His fastball averaged 92 in the early going a month before the 2024 trade deadline, and in his last outing, he was 97 and averaged 94-95. He's always had a very short arm, but now Johnson seems to have the same sense of release and is throwing more strikes with this fastball. His breaking ball is comfortable and, with solid, two-plane late motion. If Johnson can improve on his currently below-average changeup, he'll have a box office starter. His arm circumference is so ridiculously short and tight that it may not be in the cards for him to do that, and instead maybe the rays will help him build a bright second ball. Johnson has a medium relief floor with the fastball/breakingball combo he's currently using, and he has some late-bloomer traits (his size and small-school background) that suggest he may be able to continue to improve.

All told, it's an interesting haul for the Rays, who have now traded a regular lineup (Randy Arozarena for one), two starters (Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin), and two relievers (Jason Adam and Phil Maton), to shave about $12. million in revenue this year alone while adding 14 opportunities to their program. As for the Cubs, they may be able to improve their big league roster, but the extreme nature of Paredes' production creates some risk. Even if he improves, he won't change their season, but if his production translates, he could be a cornerstone in the middle for the next few years.