Red Wings Hold 15th Best Odds in 2024 NHL Draft Lottery – Hockey Writers – Detroit Red Wings

Now that the 2023-24 season is over, with the Detroit Red Wings narrowly missing the playoffs, and the team's locker room cleared for the offseason, it's time to look ahead. The offseason is upon us again, and the first event is just weeks away. NHL Draft Lottery.

Last year, I went through the last decade of draft lotteries and found that the Red Wings had the worst lottery luck during that time, dropping more spots than any other team that never won a lottery spot. That's unlikely to change this year, though it would be oddly fitting that Detroit finally wins the draft lottery when the rules say they won't get every pick.

Related: 2024 NHL Mock Draft 1.0

Let's take a look at Detroit's lottery odds, review the new NHL draft lottery rules, and check out their most likely slot value!

Worst Lottery Odds But

The Red Wings have the second worst lottery odds in the league, with a 1.1% chance of winning. That leaves a 97.9% chance of finishing 15th overall and a 1.1% chance of winning the St. Louis Blues (16th best odds) and rolling Detroit down to 16th overall (problems with. Tankathon). You read that right, Detroit has the same chances of moving up in the lottery as it does sliding.

After having the fourth best odds in 2019, the best odds in 2020, and the sixth best in 2021 (among other top 10 lottery prospects), Detroit failed to win the draft lottery. Now that they have started getting out of the lottery without the luck of the lottery, their chances of winning the lottery are very slim.

Draft Lottery Structure

Under current NHL draft lottery rules, teams can only improve their draft picks by up to 10 spots in the draft by winning the lottery, meaning Detroit has no chance of a top three pick this year. Fifth overall is on the table, if the 1.1% chance shows up and Detroit's ping-pong ball wins.

Another new rule change means that each team can only win the lottery twice in a five-year period, meaning that teams that have won the lottery in the last two years have only one win. before being released from the draft lottery.

This is a new enough rule that it hasn't been fully tested in the NHL yet, even if the lottery wins the Montreal Canadiens (winner in 2022), New Jersey Devils (winner in 2022), Chicago Blackhawks (winner in 2023), or Anaheim Ducks . (The 2023 winner will apply this rule to the 2025 draft lottery, improving the odds for every other lottery team (in the event that the two-time winner is still the 16th team in the NHL next season.

How Important Is the 15th Overall Pick This Year?

Since Detroit is unlikely to pick anywhere other than 15th this year, let's take an early look at the value of that spot in this year's first round. All in all, I would say it's a great place to live, with a lot of high hopes still on the board. I see this draft as a top 13 team (with Tij Iginla recently joining), or I see at least 20 prospects ranked in the top 10 by various scouts I trust.

After the first overall pick, this draft will be really interesting for at least 20 picks as I expect most teams' draft lists to contain more diversity than usual. Because of that, I think there's a good chance that someone in Detroit will be a top 10 draft pick at age 15, and from a draft given to a player believed to be a top 10 talent. it's a win.

Detroit's amateur scouting staff has had a solid record during the Steve Yzerman era, especially in the first round, and I expect that to continue this year. I think players like Liam Greentree and Michael Hage will probably be on the board, with guys like Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Beckett Sennecke about a 50/50 chance, and guys like Cole Eiserman or Tij Iginla standing in -longshots.

All of the above are talented wings/centers who can fill various holes in the organization, though one of Eiserman or Iginla going down to 15 would be a huge win for a Red Wings organization that needs high offense and scoring.

Latest Players Picked 15th

Once the draft lottery has come and gone and the draft order is set, I'll go with the final 10 players selected in that spot to give Red Wings fans a better idea of ​​the level of prospect they can expect, but I think it's worth it. a quick look at some notable players currently selected 15th overall.

The player who probably stands out the most to Red Wings fans is Dylan Larkin. Detroit's captain was drafted 15th overall back in 2014 and has become a cornerstone of this team as we know it. Red Wings potential goalie Sebastian Cossa also comes to mind as the 15th overall pick back in the 2021 Draft. Cole Caufield returned to No. 15 in 2019, proof that elite goal scorers with questions about the integrity of their game can slip to No. 15 *cough* Cole Eiserman *cough*.

There are less successful players selected 15th overall like Grigori Denisenko back in 2018 or Luke Kunin in 2016, although both are still full NHL players. 15th overall is usually the spot where a team can get a high-risk/high-reward-type player that slipped a bit down the draft board, and there are several talented players who could fall to Detroit this year.

Funniest Little Draft Lottery for Red Wings Fans in Recent Memory

At the end of the day, Detroit will likely pick 15 and at least have a few very good prospects to choose from. The lottery date for the 2024 NHL Draft was recently set for May 7, meaning Red Wings fans won't have to wait two weeks to learn where Detroit will pick this year.

While I think this will be another successful draft cycle for a Red Wings team that has been rebuilding for some time, it's not exactly exciting that fans have been in the draft lottery during that time. In the past, the draft lottery has been circled on many fans' calendars before the end of the regular season, but this year's success means the draft lottery has been on fire. Here's hoping we don't have to think about the lottery being fixed at all 12 months from now.