As the 2024-25 NHL season approaches, fans around the world have incredible hopes for their favorite teams. Following the Edmonton Oilers' Game 7 loss to the Florida Panthers in the 2024 Stanley Cup finals, expectations for the Oilers are sky high. Now with a solid season and a new season coming up, there are many reasons to believe that the Oilers will win the 2025 Stanley Cup.
1. The Oilers Were There
The Panthers lost the 2023 Stanley Cup to the Vegas Golden Knights and rebounded the following season with a 16-8 playoff run en route to winning the franchise's first Stanley Cup. With the Oilers on the verge of winning the 2024 Stanley Cup, there's no reason to believe they can't get back to where they were.
2. Keeping the Context
Usually when teams make deep playoff runs, free agents are waiting to look for big paydays. Fortunately for the Oilers, this was not the case for most of the core. Aside from the departures of Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod, no impact roster players left. Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais were the highlights of the defense but had little impact during the team's playoff run. Dylan Holloway had his share of criticism, but so did Vasily Podkolzin. With the core back, the Oilers are in a good position to build on last season's success.
3. A Full Season under Knoblauch
Kris Knoblauch replaced former Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft midway through last season. Under Knoblauch, the Oilers went 46-18-5 in 69 games. At a pace of 82 games, the team would finish with 115 points in the standings. During the full season, training camp, and preseason, he will be able to take full advantage of his program.
4. Skinner and Arvidsson additions
Throughout Connor McDavid's tenure, the Oilers have struggled to provide him with adequate depth among the forwards. While this wasn't a weakness last season, the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson should put any remaining concerns to rest. The team now not only boasts a star-studded top six but also a strong third and fourth line thanks to these free agent signings. Both players are aiming to bounce back from last season and are ready to join the Oilers' middle six where they can make an immediate impact and reach career highs.
5. Stuart Skinner's Brilliant Second Half
Looking at Stuart Skinner's 2023-24 season, well done. He finished with a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 goals against average (GAA), and a .905 save percentage (SV%). In the playoffs, he went 14-9-0 with a 2.45 GAA and a .901 SV%. However, following Knoblauch's entry and Jack Campbell's demotion to the AHL, Skinner took over.
Related: Comparing Connor McDavid & Connor Bedard's Rookie Seasons
Prior to December 21st, Skinner had a .884 SV% and a -7.39 goals-against-save-average (GSAx), the fourth-lowest of all hitters during that time. After Dec. 21, he had a .916 SV% and a 20.46 GSAx, fourth best among all hitters during that time. Now entering his first season as a contract goaltender, Skinner is looking to build on last season's success as he aims to join the premier league in NHL scoring.
6. Elite 5v5 Analytics
In the 2023-24 season, the top teams in xG% were the Oilers (57.4), Panthers (56.93), Carolina Hurricanes (56.46), and Dallas Stars (55.57). In the 2024 Playoffs, the top teams in xG% were the Oilers (55.74), Hurricanes (55.72), Colorado Avalanche (53.79), and Panthers (53.43).
At even strength, the Oilers led the NHL with a 58.17 xG% during the regular season. However, this dropped to 48.53 in the playoffs, possibly due to injuries and fatigue. After enduring a long season and playoff run, the team learned important lessons and built the resilience needed to go all the way.
Additionally, the fact that the Oilers—a team known for their power play but often even strength—had such success at even strength last season shows that this team is capable of winning the Stanley Cup. Whether they can repeat that success is uncertain, but advanced stats show that last season's performance was no fluke.
Each NHL season, several teams have a chance to win the Stanley Cup, but only one wins in the end. After last season's Stanley Cup Final loss and no major offseason losses, the Oilers have a compelling case to claim Lord Stanley for the sixth time in franchise history.
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