David Fry Flying High

We knew the best hitter in baseball this year would be a multi-position talent. We knew he would play for one of the top teams in the league. We knew that his contract price would start with the words “seven hundred” and the first letter of his last name would be a source of complex carbohydrates. What we don't know will be catcher/outfielder/first baseman/third baseman/DH David Fry, who is making $741,100 this season and currently leads the majors (min. 50 PA) in OBP (.488), the OPS (1.079), wOBA (.459), and wRC+ (204).

The Brewers took Fry in the seventh round of the 2018 draft, eventually sending him to Guardians during the 2021-22 offseason as a player to be named later in the right-hander JC Mejía trade. Fry first appeared on the Brewers' prospect list prior to the 2020 season, when Eric Longenhagen ranked him 24th in the draft, noting the positional flexibility made him a “potential bench player.” That evaluation held up as Fry moved up through the minor leagues (and changing organizations), though he dropped from a 40 FV to a 35+ FV in 2021 and eventually fell out of the Guardian's top 50 before the 2023 season. Eric adjusted his rating that year, subtly dropping Fry from “an attractive bench prospect” to “26 interesting candidates.” It was a fair test at the time; Fry nearly led the league in his first full season in Triple-A (105 wRC+). Going into his 27-year-old campaign, there wasn't much reason to bet on his side.

However, Fry was hard to ignore in his first full spring at major league camp in 2023. He bookended that spring training with home runs in his first and last at-bats and hit well in the middle, too, finishing with a 154 wRC+ in 19 games. Although he didn't make the Guardians Opening list, he certainly made a good impression; After a solid month back in Triple-A, he got his call at the show. A shortstop, first baseman, outfielder, and third baseman (with a few first appearances), Fry has shown his versatility while hitting well enough (106 wRC+) to collect big league salaries throughout the year. . Entering 2023, ZiPS projected a .291 wOBA from Fry, and he increased that projection to a .306 wOBA before the start of this season. No one would call his performance last year a breakout, but he has put himself in a position to play Cleveland's role again in 2024.

As it turns out, “playing the role” of the guards was a huge understatement. Fry leads the team in WAR at two different positions: catcher, where he has a total of 28 plate appearances, and DH, where he has 18. He also became the team's most valuable pinch-hitter. Only two guards, Steven Kwan and José Ramírez, have more WAR than Fry this season. Meanwhile, only closer Emmanuel Clase has a higher WPA. Despite Fry's limited playing time, he was a key contributor to a team with the third-best record in the majors. Of course, even if I was exaggerating when I called him the best hitter in baseball, it wouldn't be hyperbole to say that he has been. one of the best so far this season. With just 123 plate appearances (37 games), he ranks among the top 40 position players in WAR. By wRAA, only 10 batters provided their teams with offensive value; with WPA offensively, only one player, Jordan Westburg, has Fry's pace.

As mentioned earlier, when setting the playing time minimum at 50 plate appearances, Fry prioritizes OBP and wRC+; he is also second in batting average (.344) and seventh in slugging (.591). His 204 wRC+ means he has produced twice as many hits as the league average and is 14% better than the next best hitter, Shohei Ohtani. You could bring the limit down to five plate appearances and there are still only three hitters who will have a higher wRC+ than Fry: Josh Jung (285 wRC+ in 19 PA), Mark Vientos (229 wRC+ in 26 PA), and Brett Wisely ( 205 wRC+ in 21 PA). It's surprising on the other hand too; if you add 45 at-bats to Fry's streak total to qualify for the leaderboard stats, he would still rank among the top 30 players in OBP and the top half of professional hitters in OPS.

Not surprisingly, Fry sports a .406 BABIP, and his .459 wOBA is nearly 90 points higher than his .372 xwOBA. Without a doubt, his Josh Gibson-esque offensive numbers are undignified. That said, we don't have to write off his perfect resume because it comes from a small sample. Fry does many things very well. Perhaps most impressive is his 17.9% walk rate, which puts him close to a .500 OBP. He also has six hits this season, and since his start, he has 10 hits in 236 trips to the plate. Only six players (min. 100 PA) have been hit by pitches at a higher rate during that time. Perhaps this is not a mistake; as our editor Matt Martell wrote in the episode The New York Times last year, being hit by a pitch is actually a skill that players have and can improve. In addition, Fry has struck out less than average this season. So, combining walks and HBP, he has more free passes (28) than strikeouts (25).

On the topic of his recent success, Fry told the media, “When I'm going good, I don't think about my swing. How will I attack the enemy and his plan.” That may be true, but it's ridiculous to think that his main method of “attacking” is patience. Rather than striking his opponents first with a preemptive strike, he prefers to wear them down (or wear down their fields) until they are defeated.

Fry has hit less than 20% of pitches outside of the strike zone this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate. He gave up just 15 of 111 pitches (13.5%) in the rush zone and none in the garbage zone. For context, the league's swing rates at each position are 22.7% and 5.5%, respectively. Of the 314 hitters who have seen at least 100 pitches in the strikeouts and strikeouts combined, Fry ranks in the 93rd percentile in swing rate.

Opposing strikers have certainly tried to tempt him into chasing him. Nearly 300 hitters have seen at least 400 pitches this year, and only one, Mitch Garver, has seen more sliders than Fry. Still, Fry's slugging rate is just 11.9%; the league average is nearly three times that. Nearly 200 batters have seen at least 50 sliders out of the strike zone this year, and only two have swung more often than Fry. And, for good measure, even though he's only seen eight curveballs out of the zone, he's yet to be fooled by one of them.

It's not that Fry doesn't swing at all. His 71.5% strikeout rate (per Baseball Savant) is actually higher than the league average, which sits at 67% this season. Plus, it's not as if he hasn't taken his fair share of tough skating decisions. Of the 235 pitches he has seen in the strike zone, 47.7% were on the edges, areas known as the shadow zone. The league average is just 46.3%. Simply put, he sees pitches well and makes good swing decisions, and it pays off.

Fry has done a much better job leading the numbers this year, dropping his first strike rate from 69.9% to 56.9%. As a result, he has seen 30.1% of all his pitches while ahead in the count; the league average is 26.3%. And he swings more often than the average player at pitches in the strike zone while leading the count. That's pretty good evidence that his plate discipline is an act of choice and not just inaction; He is not afraid to swing on his favorite field even if he is in a good position to draw a trip.

To that end, another benefit of excellent plate discipline is that the pitches Fry chooses to swing at will be better pitches. This is one of the reasons why he has done such a great job of getting a stick in football this season. You have an above average swing rate in the heart area. His launch angle, sweet spot rate, and pull rate on air balls are all above average. With good communication and launch and swing angles, he compensates for average bat speed and exit velocity, which is why he's been able to hit for less power (five doubles and six home runs) this season. He probably won't be a Premier power threat all year, but right now, he's doing exactly what he needs to do to be successful.

Despite all that, Fry's offense may not be the most impressive aspect of his season; we never scratched his defense. His glove hasn't stood out in any one position, but the unusual combination of positions he plays puts him in a rare spot. Since the designated hitter was introduced in 1973, only 10 different players have played at least three games in one season at catcher, first base, third base, outfield, and DH. Only two have done so with a wRC+ over 100: Fry and Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk. If Fry appears in another game at third base (he currently has three), he will join Jake Fox in 2010 as the only players to appear in at least four games at all five positions mentioned above. With two more games at the hot corner, Fry will become the first player in recorded history to play at least five games in one season at all five of those positions.

And don't forget, we're talking about a boy too completed last season. In 2023, Fry became one of only seven players ever to play catcher, first base, third base, outfield, DH, and pitcher at least once in one season. He and Chris Gimenez are the only players to do so with a wRC+ over 100. Finally, Fry is one of six players to play at least two games in all six of those positions at any point in his major league career. Todd Zeile is the only other pitcher with a career wRC+ over 100. Furthermore, Fry did the work faster than any of his five predecessors:

The last thing Fry was able to do surprisingly quickly was to change the proportions. The season-long projections you'll find on his player page are already vastly different than the preseason stats. Entering the season, ZiPS and Steamer both had Fry as a 95 wRC+ hitter. Two months later, his ROS Steamer projection is up to 112 wRC+, while his ROS ZiPS projection is up to 122 wRC+. Even a dip in those two numbers would be a pleasant surprise for a hitter who looked like a Quad-A prospect as recently as this time last year. Davis Schneider is calling, and he'd like his schtick back.

Guardians, on the other hand, have had little success in confirming the assumptions they really are; we still have them as a sub-.500 team all season. However, Cleveland has been so dominant in the first two months of the 2024 campaign that they have become the favorites in the AL Central. David Fry, an unlikely contributor to unlikely contestants, would be the first reason why.