The Mets plan to promote playing opportunities Christian Scottreports ESPN's Kiley McDaniel. McDaniel added that Scott will likely make his debut Saturday against the Rays. He is not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will need a similar move to add him.
Scott, who turns 25 in June, was a fifth-round pick of the Mets in 2021 but has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he threw 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but the underlying metrics are solid. He struck out 29.5% of the batters he faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and a 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.
Last year, he finally got promoted to Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames on the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while averaging a measly 3.6% walk rate. He entered 2024 ranked as the #98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at #99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlight that he's turned his changeup into a splitter, adding a solid third option to what had been a sinker/slider combo.
He didn't crack the season-opening list on MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but he did make it to #62 in the latest BA update. That big jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has dominated this year, despite some domestic problems. In five Triple-A starts through 2024, he has struck out 38.3% of the batters while limiting his walks to 6.4%. But thanks to seven fly balls that cleared the fence, he has a 3.20 ERA.
In addition to pushing him up the prospect list, that solid performance will set him up for success. The Mets currently have a cycle of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser again Jose Butto. The only guy who could be selected from that group is Buttó, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. MLB.com's Anthony DiComo speculates that Scott's promotion may have something to do with the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so maybe Scott's promotion will be just the beginning of some breathing room.
The length of Scott's stay may also depend on other factors. Each of the Kodai Senga, Taylor Megill again David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will affect how the rotation is adjusted as the season progresses. Senga and Peterson are on IL's 60-day list and can't return until the end of May but Megill recently started a rehab and as such could be an option in a few weeks. Scott's performance in his big league debut will also factor into the decision.
No matter how much time Scott spends in big games throughout the season, he won't be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is more than a month old. The new CBA allows forwards to get a full year even if they are called up late if they finish in the top two spots in the Rookie of the Year voting, but that won't apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player must start the year in two of the three top 100 lists in ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only in one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, or he can continue in the majors from here on out.
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