A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the reigning services of a Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole at the 30% season mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.
Without Cole's absence, the Yanks faced a long-term slump for the 2022 MVP. Aaron is the judge and I haven't gotten as much as one at-bat DJ LeMahieu due to a broken foot suffered in spring training. Set up man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring inner-base surgery. On the other hand, Juan Soto live up to the charge as a middle power. Carlos Rodon again Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman he is well behaved, although he has an unusual rise in gait.
For all the big names turning in marquees and/or rebounding performances, the Yankees also saw a big improvement from the key home arm. That's right Clark Schmidt He was a great prospect before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 appearances last season, so it's not like he wasn't expected to contribute at all this year. But entering the season, Schmidt looked like a clear arm back.
About a third of the way through the 2024 season, that is no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he's taken some big steps forward and now looks like much more than garden innings fodder. Schmidt increased his velocity by just over a mile per hour on both his cutter (from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt also takes a page from Corbin Burns playbook, throwing more cutters than at any time in his career, and doing so at the expense of his broom and sink. It's not a huge change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter about 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.
The biggest change in Schmidt, however, is not the use of voice but the performance of voice. Opponents in 2023 have been on his sweep, blasting the field with a .276/.331/.559 slash rate when he plays. Their opponents were in 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when he put Schmidt's sweep into play. That's … not good. (Well, it's not good for Schmidt.)
In 2024, Schmidt has taken life slowly turned off that breaking ball. Along with the increased cut/sink speed, the gap between those tight spots and his breaking ball grew by nearly two miles per hour. Last year he saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between his sinker and sweeper. This year, those differences reached the respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by Statcast's estimate, Schmidt's sweeper reproduces 3.3 inches of horizontal break from last year's version of the pitch.
The tweaks are subtle but the changes to Schmidt's results are not. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander sports a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate rose from 21.5% to a league-leading 27.2%. His walk rate has gotten worse, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it's still a better percentage than the league average. Schmidt is producing more strikeouts (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more strikeouts and seeing opposing contact rates drop both at and off the plate. 41% of Schmidt's batted balls last year went 95 mph or faster, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. The average exit velocity of his opponents dropped nearly one mile per hour. You allow less contact, and balls at that there is what is done against him is usually very shy in nature.
Schmidt's move to forward came at a time when the Yankees were in a lot of trouble. Not only does it coincide with a time when rotation depth is critical for the Yankees as they await Cole's return, it also comes when Schmidt is still under control for a long time. Schmidt is 28 years old and already in settlement, earning $2.184MM this season, but he was a Super Two player who was eligible for the first time last season. The Yankees controlled him for three more seasons.
Although Schmidt's arb price will increase significantly if he can support even 80% of the gains he made this season, he will still be worth below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some very difficult contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM buyout option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short term, when Schmidt's price tag is especially affordable. Given the Yankees' long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton – and their obvious hope of re-signing Soto – having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play a key role is very important.
Speaking of Soto, his presence on the roster makes it important for Schmidt and the other in-house arms to move up in 2024. The Yankees parted with significant depth to get Soto to San Diego, posting. Michael King, Johnny Brito, Randy Vasquez and high hopes Drew Thorpe for the Padres in that package. King would have been locked up in the rotation in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year's rotation. You could argue that it's a team of value over quality, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with very little depth to rely on in the event of an injury. A step back from Schmidt couldn't be further magnified now that Cole is on the shelf.
Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward – thanks to changes that make many of his developments sound sustainable. He won't be able to continue with a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks a lot more like the mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of him that came out with a ticket to the mid-4.00s.
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