Jackson Holliday Delivered a Welcome Jolt

The Orioles have had their ups and downs lately. Since July 7, the point at which they led the American League East by three games, they have gone 11-15, falling just short of the top spot; as of this writing, they are currently tied with the Yankees at 68-48. They were among the busiest teams before the trade deadline, but their approach was geared more toward quantity rather than quality, as none of their level of additions were as an impact player. They've dealt with a handful of injuries recently, but in the absence of quarterbacks Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg, standout Jackson Holliday has gotten another look, and so far he's been pretty good.

Recalled on July 31, more than three months after his first game in the majors, Holliday made an immediate impact by hitting a 439-foot grand slam off Blue Jay's Yerry Rodríguez in his first major league game. He went hitless the next day, then went on a three-game hitting streak against the Rangers; in the last of those, on Sunday, he hit a solo homer off Gavin Williams. He bounced back in his next two games, with a solo shot off the Blue Jays' Chris Bassitt on Tuesday and a two-run blast off Ryan Burr on Wednesday:

That last homer turned a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 lead in what ended up being a 7-3 victory. It also does Holiday youngest player in AL history homered in three consecutive games, at 20 years and 247 days old. His streak ended Thursday with an 0-for-4 night against the Blue Jays, though Holliday collected an RBI for the sixth straight game, driving in a run in the ninth inning.

Like teammates Adley Rutschman in 2022 and Gunnar Henderson in '23, the 20-year-old Holliday entered the year as a no-deal. 1 hope. He appeared to have a chance to break camp with the Orioles after pitching well in the Grapefruit League, but the team instead optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk in late March, with his limited experience at that level (18 games last year), for the second time. base (26 games), and against top-level left-handed pitching that all seemed to be part of the decision, as did the schedule conflicts.

Some of that may have been lip service from the front office, however, as Holliday didn't have to wait long for his first chance. With five starters left in their first nine games behind them, the Orioles called up Holliday, who had hit .333/.482/.595 over his first 10 games in Norfolk. He started on April 10 with an 0-for-4 showing against the Red Sox, hitting twice but driving in a run and an RBI. Unfortunately, things didn't get much better; in fact, he was completely consistent, going 2-for-34 with two walks and 18 strikeouts in 10 games. When general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde both publicly expressed confidence that Holliday would soon become an impact player, the Orioles optioned him to Norfolk on April 26.

“I think the bright side of this is that he got a very strong, very clear response to the big league pitching,” Elias said at the time. “He's got a lot of skill and he's a sharp kid, and I expect him to use those changes very quickly. But we felt that Triple-A and solid playing time in Triple-A was the place for that. “

Back in Norfolk, Holliday put up respectable numbers (.252 / .418 / .429) before missing two weeks in June due to elbow inflammation. A few days after his return, colleague Eric Longenhagen noticed some disturbing aspects of his performance:

In some ways, the IL stint was comforting because it offered a possible explanation for why Holliday's performance and poor bat speed have dipped slightly. Holliday's spray chart moved from his pull side to left field and the third base line in the weeks leading up to his shelf. He was throwing a lot of contact inside in the opposite direction, including the ringing of the inner third of the plate that he often opens, and it took what seemed like a lot of discomfort and effort to swing hard.

Once out of the IL in Norfolk, Holliday showed more power, but was limited to DH duty until after the All-Star break. On July 29, the day before the trade deadline, Longenhagen noted another defensive concern, writing in his Top 100 Hitting Prospects Update, “Looks rusty and uncomfortable, if not distracted to some degree. He makes a lot of routine plays look harder than they need to be, and his hand quality matches it.”

“[H]he looks like a 20-year-old kid lost in a sea of ​​adults, and it's hard to make a strong case for Holliday over James Wood right now,” concluded Longenhagen, who lowered Holliday's rating from 70 FV to 65, which allowed Wood to take a senior position on the Board.

While all that went down, so did the Orioles infielders. On July 23, Mateo — who made a team-high 52 starts at second base and three at shortstop and two in center field — injured his left arm in a collision with Henderson. The 29-year-old was diagnosed with a sprained elbow and was placed on IL, while Connor Norby was sent back to Norfolk. Five days and five starts at second base later, Norby was traded to the Marlins in the Trevor Rogers deal; on the same day, Matheo was transferred to IL for 60 days.

The next day, Holliday returned to the majors, but just before he hit his grand slam, Rodriguez drilled Westburg — who had made 64 starts at third base, 35 at second, and one at shortstop — in the right hand with a 95-mph. the fastball. The 25-year-old broke down, derailing a season in which he hit .269/.317/.497 (129 wRC+) with 18 homers and earned All-Star honors. The hope is he'll be back by mid-September, in time to be ready for the postseason, but even with the depth of the Orioles, his absence is looming.

That injury paved the way for Holliday to look for a long time at second base. Still emerging from the statistical hole he dug out of in April, his overall slash line looks awful (.177/.239/.387, 76 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances), and the sample sizes for his breakdown are even smaller. But with the warning that these numbers have not yet reached a level of stability, in those numbers we can at least see some positive trends:

The first big thing to note besides his production since his return is that Holliday has gotten his strikeout rate under control. Keep in mind that he's had at least one hit in all 18 of his games, falling just shy of Austin Jackson's 2010 record of 19 consecutive starts.

The second thing to note is that Holliday has taken an aggressive approach at the plate since his return. While he skates in and out of the area, he often comes up empty:

I don't think there's much to be gleaned from dissecting his pitch-type since his return since Holliday has seen fewer than a dozen examples of all offerings except four-seamers and sliders. Each of his four homers came with a different pitch (four-seamer, slider, curveball, cutter), so that's something.

The third thing to note is that Holliday's communication since his return has been this up:

Of Holliday's 20 fastballs since his return, 14 have been hard balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, 11 of which have been 100 mph or higher. Granted, six of those balls hit the bases (five at least 100 mph), but he has turned three into singles, and even with his high ground ball rate, he has fielded half of the balls in this short span. His 36-ball strikeout rate is still short of the break-even point, but those barrel and hard-hit balls rates would be in the top dozen if held up over (much) larger samples.

Another note on batted balls: When Longenhagen was concerned about how many times Holliday had hit to the opposite field, his 55% strikeout rate and 20% strikeout rate since returning — not to mention all four homers on his side of the field — suggest that he is past that problem. In his defense, Holliday made a good choice to start what on review appeared to be a game-ending strike on July 31, but the jury is still out on his changeup.

It's too early to suggest that Holliday has it all figured out, but at the very least, he's given the Orioles a much-welcomed boost. That still leaves them with many problems, however. Prospect Coby Mayo, who is not. 12 on The Board, was called up on Aug. 2 to play third base, but so far is 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts; this week's signing of free agent JD Davis, who hit just .218/.293/.338 (85 wRC+) for the A's and Yankees, to a minor league contract suggests that Mayo's loan may not be long. Heston Kjerstad, who came into the 7-day contest after being hit by Clay Holmes' 97mph fastball on July 12, has returned to IL with lingering concussion symptoms after going 2-for-18 on his return. The left-handed swinging outfielder entering his roster slot, Austin Slater, hit .205/.331/.250 (77 wRC+) in his three-team odyssey this year.

More about the rotation, which has already lost Kyle Bradish and John Means to Tommy John surgery and Tyler Wells to UCL brace surgery, and has flashed a 5.19 ERA and 4.66 FIP since the start of July, and has a 5.10 ERA. even after the acquisition of Rogers and Zach Eflin. Earlier this week, Grayson Rodriguez came to IL with a minor lat strain. “He's going to be missed for a while,” Hyde said. “We will shut him down for a while, let him rest and recover, get him rehab. I think we are optimistic about it.” His absence leaves a thin rotation behind ace Corbin Burnes, Rogers and Eflin joined by Dean Kremer and outfielder Albert Suárez. Of that group, only Burnes has an ERA under 4.00 since the start of July, with Kremer and Suárez over 5.00. Fortunately for the Orioles, the Yankees have their own issues, including a rotation that has gotten worse (5.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP) since the start of July, and unlike Elias, Brian Cashman has done nothing to try to fix it in the offseason.

At this point, the division race looks like one between two flawed teams, and any gains in terms of depth and player health could tip the balance. After a rough start, Holliday is not only fit but making an impact, and that can only help the Orioles.