NHL Giveaway & Takeaway Stats Not To Be Trusted – Hockey Writers – Commentary

Often, the words “giveaway” and “takeaway” are thrown around in hockey-related conversation. But what do these words really mean? The NHL's definition of a what is offered “an unforced error that leads to giving the opposition the puck up.” On the other hand, a take away defined as when “a player takes the puck from the opposition, rather than inheriting it through an opposition foul.”

That's great and all, but the bottom line is that it leaves the interpretation of the home player up to you. Varied NHL stats based on pitch is not a new concept, especially when it comes to shots on goal (SOG). But even a large difference in SOGs will not affect the data by more than ~7%. In terms of give and take, the difference between platforms (in some cases) can be over 200%.

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The Calgary Flames finished dead last in the NHL last season with 532 home runs. On the other hand, the Columbus Blue Jackets, were the best in the NHL with 151 giveaways in their cage. That's right – a Calgary team that was 15 points ahead of Columbus, somehow had a 252% turnover rate in just 41 home games. Make sense.

If that wasn't enough to persuade you, the Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers (104 points) had 508 giveaways at home; the league-leading San Jose Sharks (47 points) have just 255 points. Maybe it's just me – but something tells me it's the Oilers maybe didn't give the puck away at a 99% higher rate than last season's worst team.

We see a similar trend in decision-making: St. Louis Blues (bottom-10 team in goals) took the puck 481 times, while the Vancouver Canucks (top-10 in goals) did just 240 times. Of course.

In terms of numbers, it seems that most of the home goalscorers are stronger for the home team compared to the away team. And some vice versa. Here are the teams that consistently face giving away at least 50% more than they take, hurting their team's stats: Calgary Flames, Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. Montreal is the most extreme, with 12.02 conceded per 60 minutes (GvA/60) accounted for, but just 5.44 taken per 60 (TkA/60).

On the other hand, these are the teams that are favored by the home scorer, giving the home team 50% or more of the goals scored: Seattle Kraken, St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche, and Vegas Golden Knights. Seattle is the most extreme, at 9.82 TkA/60, but only 3.75 GvA/60. That's a difference of ~162%. How then can this figure be taken so seriously?

Finally, it unfairly distorts the perception of individual players. Pavel Buchnevich of the Blues had 2.66 GvA / 60 on the road, but 1.17 GvA / 60 at home. That's a 127% difference. It was the same story for almost all the Blues players: in at least 50% were better when they played at home. It's not just a coincidence.

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For Kraken's Oliver Bjorkstrand, he had 3.75 TkA/60 at home, but 1.92 TkA/60 on the road…a difference of 95.3%. If none of these stats do it for you, how about this: At home, the Blue Jackets had a 3.64 GvA/60. Mathew Barzal of the Islanders had a 3.35 GvA/60. There is no possible way to convince anyone that Barzal handed the puck nearly as often (alone) as complete the last batch of Green Jackets.

Takeaway & Giveaway Scores: At Least Be Fair!

The league average is 8.63 GvA/60 and 7.71 TkA/60. The following teams suppressed both offers and takes (<6 TkA/60 & <7 GvA/60): Philadelphia Flyers, Vancouver Canucks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Los Angeles Kings.

Why is there a give/take equation #nhl game pages. I count 6 clear gives 1 #umzwilili fwd last night at PP's/3rd pd. Charged with 0

– Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) October 28, 2014

The following teams maximized both, consistently scoring (>10 GvA/60 & >9 TkA/60): Nashville Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, and Washington Capitals. If your group is still not mentioned, then the give and take have been calculated More in fairness to them, but it's still very different. At best, the current use of profit calculations remains inconsistent and unreliable.

NHL expenses Historical Examples

In 2006-07, the Oilers had 923 giveaways at home (22.33 GvA/60). The Blackhawks had just 99 (2.38 GvA/60). I mean, come on! That's a difference of over 832%. At the end of the day, these are all NHL players. While some may be worse than others, the overall competitive balance in the NHL makes it impossible to believe that such a disparity exists.

The turnover-per-60 figures were first kept in 2005-06. In every single season since then, there has been at least one instance of a team giving (or giving away) the puck five times more than the other team. And it has nothing to do with roster talent, discipline, or anything of that nature.

Over the past decade, the Oilers have turned the puck over 13.87 times per 60 minutes at home. At the same time, the Minnesota Wild has only 5.52 times. The Hurricanes over the past 10 seasons have carried the puck 11.76 times per 60. Kings? Just 3.52…a difference of over 234%.

You probably get the gist by now, but the bottom line is that it's completely wrong to use these statistics in rational discussions about skater performance. These metrics are often used in discussions about Selke Trophy voting, and that immediately puts players on certain teams (those pushing TkA) at a disadvantage. The stats are also often shown on telecasts when trying to promote a player's “improved defense”. It's quite misleading, considering that every player “improves” when he enters certain fields. If they played there recently, then it's just an idea. Well, at least it should get to that point.

Maybe the NHL needs to come up with a better way to handle these situations, or cool down the enforcement a bit more. Or remove the math altogether! This is an issue that has been going on for twelve years at this point, and nothing better has been done. So please, if you're reading this, at least do your part. Stop paying unnecessary attention to these useless statistics. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.