We're back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has used thousands of simulations from every game to intelligently identify our best playoff player bets for tonight's slate.
1. TJ MCCONNELL OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+116)
Probability: +116
Probability: 60.8%
Rating: 6.4
Limit: 14.5%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bets in today's NBA matchups. The best player bet happens in Pacers vs Celtics, with TJ McConnell showing value in the prop market for more than just assists. Our model has dropped TJ McConnell Over 4.5 Total Assist as the best player bet today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason McConnell managed to average 5.2 assists per game. In the regular season, when the Pacers played the Celtics, McConnell managed to average 5 APG in four games and 18 minutes of playing time. Our model suspects that with 4 assists last game, and high usage tonight, this number could be a shade too low.
Our model recommends placing a wager TJ McConnell Over 4.5 Total Assists of +116 issues and attractive 14.5% limit by Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. PAYTON PRITCHARD OVER 8.5 POINTS (+114)
Probability: +114
Probability: 56.6%
Rating: 11.7
Edge: 9.9%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
According to our model, one of the best player prop bets on today's playoff slate occurs in the Pacers vs Celtics game, with Payton Pritchard showing value in the prop market with the most points. Pritchard averaged 9.6 points per game on the season, with a 7.8 PPG average in 23/24 postseason games. In the first game of the series, Pritchard managed to score 8 points, falling .5 over his point streak. He's become a reliable source of offense for the Cs over the past few months, and he should get enough playing time and shot attempts tonight to cover the point.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager Payton Pritchard Over 8.5 Pointswith 9.9% limit of +114 issues available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. MYLES TURNS 16.5 POINTS (+102)
Probability: +102
Probability: 58.9%
Rating: 20.9
Limit: 9.4%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
A prop bet for the next best NBA player our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Pacers vs Celtics game, Myles Turner showing the market value of more points than points.
Throughout the 23/24 season Turner managed to average 17.1 points per game, our model projects him to score 20.9 points in tonight's game. Throughout last season, Turner averaged 17.9 points in 32.9 minutes per game. Our model predicts that with a showing of 20.9 points in tonight's game, and an average of 17.9 PPG throughout the playoffs, we highly recommend placing a bet on Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points Scored.
Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points Scored in tonight's game, which gives us i 9.4% limit you have +102 exceptions currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. JAYLEN BROWN OVER 25.5 POINTS OUT (+100)
Probability: +100
Probability: 57.6%
Rating: 29.2
Limit: 7.6%
Game: Pacers vs Celtics (8PM EST)
According to our model, the best final NBA player bet tonight will feature Jaylen Brown in the Pacers vs Celtics matchup. Our betting bot has priced Jaylen Brown Over 25.5 Points Scored.
During the 2023/24 regular season Brown averaged 23 points per game, averaging 23.4 PPG in the postseason. In his last five postseason games he has scored 26/11/27/28/19 points respectively, beating the streak in 3/5 games. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that with Tatum running the offense, Brown will eat up the ball more for easy looks.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends betting Jaylen Brown Scored Over 25.5 Pointswith the findings 7.6% limit again +100 possibilities at Fanduel Sportsbook.
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The edge occurs when Dimers.com's prediction model projects the event to be higher than the best odds available through US Sportsbooks. Basically, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model is a project where betting has a better chance of making money than sportsbooks. That's why the higher the edge, the better for you.
While the edge does not guarantee a win, it is consistently a high pick on the edge of the bet it can increase your chances of becoming a profitable bet in the long run. This is an important aspect of successful sports betting.
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