We're back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring the Celtics and Mavericks in the NBA Playoff Finals. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has used thousands of simulations from every game to intelligently identify our best playoff player bets for tonight's slate.
1. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 ASSISTS TOTAL (+124)
Probability: +124
Probability: 57.8%
Rating: 5.9
Limit: 13.2%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bets for one finals game. The best player bet is on Celtics vs Mavericks, with Derrick White showing value in the over assists prop market. Our model has Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists down as the best player bet today. Throughout the 23/24 postseason, White managed to average 4.4 assists per game. Going into the conference finals, White was able to cross the line in 3/4 games, tallying 4/7/6/9 assists respectively. In the regular season against the Mavericks, White managed to put up 4.5 assists per game. When he played them in the finals, White was able to cross the line 1/2 times and also collected 5 assists in the first game of the series. Tonight is expected to go the same way with White moving the ball in high-scoring matchups, especially as Tatum looks to be on the upswing, hitting hard to silence the critics.
Our model recommends placing a wager Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists of +124 odds and attractive 13.2% limit by Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3 POINTERS MADE (+100)
Probability: +100
Probability: 60.7%
Rating: 3.6
Edge: 10.7%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, one of the best player prop bets on today's playoff slate is in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the three-point prop market. Irving averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game during the season, and averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game in the 23/24 postseason. In the first two contests against the Celtics, Kyrie fell apart, going 0/8 with a combined 3-pointer at the Garden. With the Mavs back on their home court, our model suspects he will right the ship.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Madewith 10.7% limit of +100 possibilities available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. LUKA DONCIC OVER 9.5 ASSISTS (+124)
Probability: +124
Probability: 52.6%
Rating: 9.9
Limit: 7.6%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA player bet our betting bot recommends to play comes in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, Luka Doncic showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season Luka managed to average 9.8 assists per game, our model has predicted that he will average 9.9 assists in tonight's game. Considering the playoffs, Luke averaged 8.5 APG. Against the Celtics in the regular season, Luke averaged 12 APG in just two games. In the G2 finals, he had 11 assists, and was the most valuable player on the floor despite the loss. Our model projects will add 9.9 tonight.
Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Total Assists in tonight's game, which gives us i 7.6% limit you have +124 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. KYRIE IRVING OVER 23.5 POINTS WINNING (+136)
Probability: +136
Probability: 57.2%
Rating: 27
Limit: 6%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the best final NBA player bet tonight will feature Kyrie Irving in the Celtics vs Mavericks matchup. Our betting bot has priced Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Scored.
During the 2023/24 season Irving averaged 21.9 points per game, with an average of 27 points against the Timberwolves in the WCF. In the first two games against the Celtics in the finals, Kyrie was not playing well. Our model suspects that after two tough losses and going 7-18 and 6-19 respectively, he will bounce back, and cook for Boston tonight in front of a raucous Dallas fan base on their home court. Our model projects Irving will score a total of 27 points by the end of the game, leading to his over. Our model strongly recommends placing a wager on Irving over points.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends betting Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Pointsd, and received 6% limit again +132 issues at BetMGM Sportsbook.
What is the Edge in NBA Betting?
The edge occurs when Dimers.com's prediction model projects the event to be higher than the best odds available through US Sportsbooks. Basically, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model is a project where betting has a better chance of making money than sportsbooks. That's why the higher the edge, the better for you.
While the edge doesn't guarantee a win, it is consistently a high pick on the edge of the bet it can increase your chances of becoming a profitable bet in the long run. This is an important aspect of successful sports betting.
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