How will the rain and wind affect Royal Troon?

As they say in Scotland, “Nae wind, nae rain, it's nae golf.” That is never so true during the Open Championship, which is defined not only by the outstanding links courses on which it is played, but also by the unpredictable weather and elements.

According to Wednesday's official forecast for the 2024 Open Championship from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office – the country's national weather service – Thursday and Friday look reasonable. But for the weekend, the forecast starts on a bad note: “Low confidence for the weekend.”

That mix will be on the Open product.

Many remember the 2002 Open at Muirfield when Tiger Woods' one-year Grand Slam chances were literally blown away by Saturday's freak storm that sent his third-round score to 81, the highest of his career at the time.

While we don't expect anything of the sort this week (at least not now), Scotland has already had a wet summer, making Royal Troon's sweltering conditions and dandelions sprouting on the lawn, according to Monday GOLF's Sean Zak. Rain is expected on all four days of the tournament at this time, although the total and duration is not guaranteed. The heaviest and longest periods of rain could arrive on Saturday.

Then there is the sea breeze on the South West coast of Scotland. Visitors for the rest of the week are expected in excess of 20 mph with the strongest winds heading into Friday afternoon, making a late/early start time very beneficial this week.

The good thing is that since Sunday's forecast is in the air, starting Wednesday, it is expected to be “dry and bright,” which means that the champion must have good weather for his march to victory.

Continue reading below for the full forecast for the Open Championship week and check back for updates as the tournament progresses and new predictions are released.

Open Tournament Forecast

From the UK Met Office.

(This article will be updated throughout the week as new forecasts are released.)

Thursday

Weather: It will be cloudy with very little rain or drizzle as you move or close during the day. Breezy with a chance of a long spell of rain and drizzle from the afternoon.
Precipitation: 1-3mm, 20% 4-8mm
Temp (Top): 18°C ​​(64°F)
Spirit: IS or SSE 12-15mph, gust 20-25 mph, strongest in the afternoon. Easing S 8-12cmph gust 15-20 mph early.

On Friday

Weather: It will be cloudy overnight, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times. Very thirsty, with the ability to see bright spells at times.
Precipitation: 0-1mm, 20% 2-3mm
Temp (Top): 20-21°C (68-69°F)
Spirit: IS 5-10mph gust 10-15 mph at first, increasing in the morning to S 12-15 mph gust 20-25 mph. Possible gusts of up to 28-32 mph by mid-afternoon Friday.

On Saturday

Weather: Low confidence in weekend details. It is likely to change, showers or heavy rain on Saturday, times and rain are uncertain.
Rain: N/A
Temp (Top): 18°C ​​(64°F)
Spirit: Rather breezy at times between S and W

On Sunday

Weather: Low confidence in weekend details. It is likely to be drier and brighter on Sunday.
Rain: N/A
Temp (Top): 18°C ​​(64°F)
Spirit: Rather breezy at times between S and W

Jack Hirsh

Golf.com Editor

Jack Hirsh is an assistant editor at GOLF. A native of Pennsylvania, Jack is a 2020 graduate of Penn State University, earning degrees in broadcast journalism and political science. He was the captain of his high school golf team and recently returned to the program to serve as the head coach. Jack is also *still* trying to stay competitive with the local novices. Before joining GOLF, Jack spent two years working at a TV station in Bend, Oregon, primarily as a reporter/multimedia reporter, but also producing, anchoring and even presenting weather. He can be reached at [email protected].